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Another good game for Arrieta

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I don't know how true I think this is.

I mean, Tillman's FIP is better, and Arrieta's luck and park-corrected FIP is well over 4.00. He's walking a lot of guys, though he's getting a lot of GBs (moreso than Tillman).

I don't really see any "Politics" at work. But that's just me.

Didn't know about the FIP, but it seems to me that Arrieta:

1. Has been the more consistent pitcher all year

2. Has improved his groundball ratio while Tillman has not.

3. Has shown a greater ability to strike batters out

4. Has walked too many guys but also had starts where he walked few

5. Just has plain better stuff than Tillman.

As I've said before, neither may be a ML starter but I'm more dubious of Tillman's chances right now. Both may get behind hitters at the ML level but I think Tillman will pay more for it. As low as Tillman's walk totals are, he seems to throw a lot of pitches each start, so I'm not sure he's actually being aggressive and getting ahead of a lot of hitters. I could be wrong though.

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Didn't know about the FIP, but it seems to me that Arrieta:

1. Has been the more consistent pitcher all year

2. Has improved his groundball ratio while Tillman has not.

3. Has shown a greater ability to strike batters out

4. Has walked too many guys but also had starts where he walked few

5. Just has plain better stuff than Tillman.

As I've said before, neither may be a ML starter but I'm more dubious of Tillman's chances right now. Both may get behind hitters at the ML level but I think Tillman will pay more for it. As low as Tillman's walk totals are, he seems to throw a lot of pitches each start, so I'm not sure he's actually being aggressive and getting ahead of a lot of hitters. I could be wrong though.

I think this may well be the way you see it. I doubt the O's see it that way, and it has nothing to do with "Politics."

1. Maybe. He has an unsustainably low BABIP, however. Including a way sub-.200 BABIP on GBs and a sub-.100 BABIP on FBs.

2. You're right. This is a concern.

3. This year. But Tillman has been working on a cutter, and not Ks. And his K/9 is lower than Tillman's in the same league last year. So, small sample mitigates, history trumps.

4. I thought you said he was more consistent?

5. Dubious. I don't know anyone who agrees with this. He's got a better fastball. Tillman's curve and change are both well-above Arrieta's.

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Didn't know about the FIP, but it seems to me that Arrieta:

1. Has been the more consistent pitcher all year

Wasn't Tillman supposed to be working on doing different things? I kinda-sorta thought we could expect him to be inconsistent, simply because he was learning to do things differently. (Am I making this up?)

ps: I'm not saying you're wrong about who should be called up first, because I really don't know.

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One thing that I worry about when it comes to Tillman is that he is sacrificing stuff for control.

If he is, he won't last long.

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One thing that I worry about when it comes to Tillman is that he is sacrificing stuff for control.

Well of course he is. This is often the way it happens. If the pitcher is mechanically inconsistent, you look for a way to get that consistency. Then you ease back in to full intensity.

It's only a problem when he's unable to put all the pieces together. But there's no reason (yet) to believe that he can't.

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Not to derail the thread or anything.... but,

HOW FLIPPIN AWESOME WOULD IT BE on Sunday if Tillman pitched 6, Arrieta pitched 2, and DH notched the save

just sayin...

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The fact that Tillman is 22 while Arrieta is 24 is why Tillman is, and ought to be, the callup. The odds of Tillman's long-term success are much, much greater than Arrieta's, in terms of percentages.

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I think this may well be the way you see it. I doubt the O's see it that way, and it has nothing to do with "Politics."

1. Maybe. He has an unsustainably low BABIP, however. Including a way sub-.200 BABIP on GBs and a sub-.100 BABIP on FBs.

2. You're right. This is a concern.

3. This year. But Tillman has been working on a cutter, and not Ks. And his K/9 is lower than Tillman's in the same league last year. So, small sample mitigates, history trumps.

4. I thought you said he was more consistent?

5. Dubious. I don't know anyone who agrees with this. He's got a better fastball. Tillman's curve and change are both well-above Arrieta's.

The politics has to do with Tillman already being on the 40 man and the fact that they may want to keep Arrieta down for a little more time for future monetary reasons, although I think it's more the former than the latter.

3. They've both had good strikeout numbers in the past at all levels. Arrieta was working on stuff last year too. Apparently he's made some adjustments and his striking out more guys in AAA than he did last year. Tillman, who might still be in the process of making adjustments, is striking out less hitters. They're history is pretty equal. The present goes to Arrieta. The present trumps history in this case.

4. I'll take back the consistency argument. Tillman has been consistent since his 3 bad starts to start the year. While Tillman's control has been more consistent, he's also had 3 starts, even in his good stretch, where he's gone 1) 5 IP & 8 H 2) two times with 6 IP & 8 H. I guess you can pick your poison. Arrieta has walked more guys but Tillman has been a little more hittable. Your stats say that a lot of that is luck. Maybe.

5. The fastball is used to set up every other pitch. A significant edge in fastball may trump an edge in the other two pitches, especially since Tillman has not shown he can consistently get his curve over, which is probably the biggest thing holding him back.

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Just a thought. MAybe they want to get past Toronto,NY, and Boston which would be Arrietta' next 3 scheduled startsif they promoted him today. McPhail does not like to bring these guys up and throw them to the AL East wolves in their debuts. The bullpen idea is a great idea if they want to ease him in. Tillman has already pitched in the majors so pitching against these guys would not be entirely new to him. Another advantage for Tillman although i think the biggest issue is the 40 man roster crunch. After all we need to make sure we protect our investment in Pedro Viola.

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One thing that I worry about when it comes to Tillman is that he is sacrificing stuff for control.

If he is changing speeds to keep that control then isn't that a good thing?

He can dial it up when he needs to but, keeps his FB at 88-90 for control should be ok. But, if his FB has no movement at 88-90 then yes, he is in trouble.

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If he is changing speeds to keep that control then isn't that a good thing?

He can dial it up when he needs to but, keeps his FB at 88-90 for control should be ok. But, if his FB has no movement at 88-90 then yes, he is in trouble.

Wow, hopefully you are wrong, and I didn't miss where this news came about. But I haven't been paying attention to the MiL this year because I have been so busy with work, so maybe I missed the news that Tillman is throwing 88-90 to throw more strikes. When we saw him last season I would almost have said that he was sacrificing velocity(not stuff) for command, but regardless, he was sitting low 90's for the majority of the season. PITCH FX will tell you he averaged around 92 MPH in most starts last season which would roughly give the assumption he sat anywhere from 91-93, touching a bit higher at times while of course touching a bit lower as well.

One thing to remember here is that if you are expecting a "power pitcher" to develop from Tillman, you will be disappointed. I see him more as a pitcher with a good feel for pitching, good secondaries to go along with developing command and a fastball that happens to be a few ticks better than average. Everything hinges on the command, but to me, he ends up closer to Matusz than an Arrieta type power arm.

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Arrieta's luck and park-corrected FIP is well over 4.00. He's walking a lot of guys, though he's getting a lot of GBs
He has an unsustainably low BABIP, however. Including a way sub-.200 BABIP on GBs and a sub-.100 BABIP on FBs.

I doubt Arrieta's BABIP stays this low, but I don't like the term "luck" even though I know you are probably just borrowing that term from minorleaguesplits.com. The guy has had an insanely low line drive rate at every stop (11.5% at Frederick, 10.2% at Bowie, 14.6% this year at Norfolk) and that's because his fastball is very tough to square up on even when contact is made. He's always going to have low BABIPs in my opinion.

To me the biggest question with Arrieta is in-season stamina. He tired towards the end both of the last 2 years, after starting out with guns blazing. I think he has made strides over the winter, but part of the reason he is doing so much better at Norfolk this year is that it's early in the season and he's fresh.

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I doubt Arrieta's BABIP stays this low, but I don't like the term "luck" even though I know you are probably just borrowing that term from minorleaguesplits.com. The guy has had an insanely low line drive rate at every stop (11.5% at Frederick, 10.2% at Bowie, 14.6% this year at Norfolk) and that's because his fastball is very tough to square up on even when contact is made. He's always going to have low BABIPs in my opinion.

To me the biggest question with Arrieta is in-season stamina. He tired towards the end both of the last 2 years, after starting out with guns blazing. I think he has made strides over the winter, but part of the reason he is doing so much better at Norfolk this year is that it's early in the season and he's fresh.

I don't 100% agree that Jake has a problem with tiring at the end of the season. If you look back, he had problems adjusting to the new league and he was also apparently working on his 2 seamer, but his final 5 or so starts in 09 he allowed 3 ERs or less(if I remember right). So, I think it would be best to wait and see before definitely concluding he has that problem, especially considering the shape he keeps himself in.

I do agree about his low BABIP, that its due to his FB being tough to square up on. All I know is that I am excited for his prospect resurgence this season. It'll be interesting to see where he falls in the midseason top 100 prospects if he stays in the MiL long enough. It'll also be interesting to see how he fares against ML hitters, I can't wait!

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One thing that I worry about when it comes to Tillman is that he is sacrificing stuff for control.

We need more pitchers that do this. Pitching to contact is where it is at. Yes, K-rate is an important stat but it shouldn't be to the detriment of the pitcher. Too many pitchers are obsessed with K's. It makes them more wild, gets them behind in the count, and results in them giving up too many runs. A guy like Tillman with the stuff that we have observed shouldn't have a k-rate which is similar to a Lincecum.

Palmer has always preached pitching to contact. That is what he did. His k-rate was 5.0 for his career. You would be looking to trade him with a k-rate like that. Surely Palmer could have struck out more batters had he concentrated on it, but he was smart enough to know that it would be to his detriment.

The point I am making is that from a statistical standpoint if all pitchers are pitching at their optimal level than the guy with the higher k-rate is the superior pitcher. But you can't evaluate pitchers just on k rate because many of them have inflated k-rates because that is all they are concentrating on.

I am a firm believer that Nolan Ryan suffered from this. He would have been a better pitcher had he struck out less batters because he would have walked fewer batters and fallen behind in the count less often. So, yes, he should have sacrificed some of his stuff. Hopefully Tillman is learning this lesson that was taught to Oriole pitchers for decades.

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