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Another good game for Arrieta

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We need more pitchers that do this. Pitching to contact is where it is at. Yes, K-rate is an important stat but it shouldn't be to the detriment of the pitcher. Too many pitchers are obsessed with K's. It makes them more wild, gets them behind in the count, and results in them giving up too many runs. A guy like Tillman with the stuff that we have observed shouldn't have a k-rate which is similar to a Lincecum.

Palmer has always preached pitching to contact. That is what he did. His k-rate was 5.0 for his career. You would be looking to trade him with a k-rate like that. Surely Palmer could have struck out more batters had he concentrated on it, but he was smart enough to know that it would be to his detriment.

The point I am making is that from a statistical standpoint if all pitchers are pitching at their optimal level than the guy with the higher k-rate is the superior pitcher. But you can't evaluate pitchers just on k rate because many of them have inflated k-rates because that is all they are concentrating on.

I am a firm believer that Nolan Ryan suffered from this. He would have been a better pitcher had he struck out less batters because he would have walked fewer batters and fallen behind in the count less often. So, yes, he should have sacrificed some of his stuff. Hopefully Tillman is learning this lesson that was taught to Oriole pitchers for decades.

It's not that you're wrong, because pitch count does matter. However, K rate is also an indication of a pitcher's ability to miss bats or induce weak contact. Tillman has had high pitch counts despite his low K and BB rates this year. That's what's troubling because it indicates that hitters are able to foul off his stuff. Also, Tillman's LD% is 22.5 this year.

In other words, people are making better contact against him than they are Arrieta. That has to be a concern for him and the franchise. The K rate is just an indicator of this.

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Palmer has always preached pitching to contact. That is what he did. His k-rate was 5.0 for his career. You would be looking to trade him with a k-rate like that. Surely Palmer could have struck out more batters had he concentrated on it, but he was smart enough to know that it would be to his detriment.

Palmer also played in a different era. Strikeout rates have been at historic highs over the last ten+ years.

Also, do you have any proof for your asserstion that "you can't evaluate pitchers just on k rate because many of them have inflated k-rates because that is all they are concentrating on."? Because that sounds fabriacted, frankly.

Edited by MisterCrash

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We need more pitchers that do this. Pitching to contact is where it is at. Yes, K-rate is an important stat but it shouldn't be to the detriment of the pitcher. Too many pitchers are obsessed with K's. It makes them more wild, gets them behind in the count, and results in them giving up too many runs. A guy like Tillman with the stuff that we have observed shouldn't have a k-rate which is similar to a Lincecum.

Palmer has always preached pitching to contact. That is what he did. His k-rate was 5.0 for his career. You would be looking to trade him with a k-rate like that. Surely Palmer could have struck out more batters had he concentrated on it, but he was smart enough to know that it would be to his detriment.

The point I am making is that from a statistical standpoint if all pitchers are pitching at their optimal level than the guy with the higher k-rate is the superior pitcher. But you can't evaluate pitchers just on k rate because many of them have inflated k-rates because that is all they are concentrating on.

I am a firm believer that Nolan Ryan suffered from this. He would have been a better pitcher had he struck out less batters because he would have walked fewer batters and fallen behind in the count less often. So, yes, he should have sacrificed some of his stuff. Hopefully Tillman is learning this lesson that was taught to Oriole pitchers for decades.

Palmer had gold glovers all over the place behind him.

Pitching to contact isn't a good thing unless you have an amazing defense behind you and even then, K's are still better.

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Palmer had gold glovers all over the place behind him.

Pitching to contact isn't a good thing unless you have an amazing defense behind you and even then, K's are still better.

No one is saying that K's aren't better. My point is that a lot of guys concentrate so much on K's that it makes them a worse pitcher because they fall behind and get burned. In other words, a pitcher may artificially inflate his k-rate to 8 by falling behind in counts and always going for the strike out, so with a k-rate of say 7 he would be a better pitcher.

Do you think Halladay worries about k's? Don't you think he could strike out more guys if he focused on it? But he doesn't because he knows in the end he would be a worse pitcher. Every pitcher has a K-rate that is right for him and his stuff. They get in trouble when they try to artificially inflate that k-rate instead of concentrating on pitching properly.

The Twins believe in this. Palmer believes in this. And pitching to contact is generally the trend in baseball. Would you rather have a guy who pitches to contact with a k-rate of 8 vs. 6? Of course. But you would rather have a guy that pitches to contact with a k-rate of 6 versus a guy who doesn't pitch to contact with a k-rate of 8.

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No one is saying that K's aren't better. My point is that a lot of guys concentrate so much on K's that it makes them a worse pitcher because they fall behind and get burned. In other words, a pitcher may artificially inflate his k-rate to 8 by falling behind in counts and always going for the strike out, so with a k-rate of say 7 he would be a better pitcher.

Do you think Halladay worries about k's? Don't you think he could strike out more guys if he focused on it? But he doesn't because he knows in the end he would be a worse pitcher. Every pitcher has a K-rate that is right for him and his stuff. They get in trouble when they try to artificially inflate that k-rate instead of concentrating on pitching properly.

The Twins believe in this. Palmer believes in this. And pitching to contact is generally the trend in baseball. Would you rather have a guy who pitches to contact with a k-rate of 8 vs. 6? Of course. But you would rather have a guy that pitches to contact with a k-rate of 6 versus a guy who doesn't pitch to contact with a k-rate of 8.

A batted ball is an out 70-73% of the time...A K is an out 99.5% of the time.

The idea of pitching to contact isn't terrible but it only works if you have a good defense behind you.

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A batted ball is an out 70-73% of the time...A K is an out 99.5% of the time.

The idea of pitching to contact isn't terrible but it only works if you have a good defense behind you.

And a walk is an out 0% of the time. You're not getting what he's saying.

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It's not that you're wrong, because pitch count does matter. However, K rate is also an indication of a pitcher's ability to miss bats or induce weak contact. Tillman has had high pitch counts despite his low K and BB rates this year. That's what's troubling because it indicates that hitters are able to foul off his stuff. Also, Tillman's LD% is 22.5 this year.

In other words, people are making better contact against him than they are Arrieta. That has to be a concern for him and the franchise. The K rate is just an indicator of this.

This may be true, but Tillman's splits suggest that he's working on things. Look at the difference with no outs versus with runners on, and versus with outs. This is just a guess - and it's conditioned on a small sample and no "think through" of other confounding factors - but it looks like he might working on things early in the innings and with none on, and bearing down a bit as he needs to.

                 IP	FIP	   	BF	H	2B	HR	W	IW	K	GDP	   	AVG	BABIP	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	   	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF/F	HR/F0 out		20.7	4.84		87	27	4	3	4	0	10	2		0.325	0.343	1.50	1.74	4.35	1.31		30.0%	25.0%	37.5%	12.0%	10.0%1 out		20.0	1.59		72	15	2	0	3	0	22	2		0.221	0.326	0.90	1.35	9.90	0.00		36.0%	24.0%	32.0%	21.4%	0.0%2 out		17.7	3.23		73	13	4	1	5	0	15	0		0.191	0.231	1.02	2.55	7.64	0.51		34.5%	18.2%	43.6%	17.6%	4.2%None On		31.3	3.56		133	33	7	3	6	0	25	0		0.260	0.303	1.24	1.72	7.18	0.86		33.3%	27.5%	39.2%	16.2%	7.5%Men On		28.0	2.88		101	22	3	1	6	0	22	4		0.234	0.296	1.00	1.93	7.07	0.32		32.9%	16.5%	36.5%	15.6%	3.2%RISP		16.7	3.64		61	10	1	1	6	0	13	3		0.185	0.225	0.96	3.24	7.02	0.54		37.8%	13.3%	42.2%	20.0%	5.3%C & L		7.0	3.20		22	2	0	1	0	0	7	0		0.091	0.071	0.29	0.00	9.00	1.29		43.8%	0.0%	50.0%	25.0%	12.5%
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A batted ball is an out 70-73% of the time...A K is an out 99.5% of the time.

The idea of pitching to contact isn't terrible but it only works if you have a good defense behind you.

When you fall behind in counts, throw extra pitches, and walk more batters in a quest to get a few more k's you become a worse pitcher.

K's are best when you need them, e.g. men in scoring position. This actually would be a better stat.

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And a walk is an out 0% of the time. You're not getting what he's saying.

No I am...I just don't agree with him.

You shouldn't sacrifice stuff to have better control.

Remember when DCab did that?

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When you fall behind in counts, throw extra pitches, and walk more batters in a quest to get a few more k's you become a worse pitcher.

K's are best when you need them, e.g. men in scoring position. This actually would be a better stat.

Letting up hits and baserunners up pitch counts, not strikeouts.

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No I am...I just don't agree with him.

You shouldn't sacrifice stuff to have better control.

Remember when DCab did that?

If that were the issue with DCab he would have just started throwing 99 again. Problem is that he could never do that. It is obvious something happened.

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Letting up hits and baserunners up pitch counts, not strikeouts.

So you believe a pitcher should basically try to strike everyone out all of the time with a few exceptions (e.g. need a double play)?

Do you think that a pitcher can ever be so obsessed with strikeouts that it works to his detriment?

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This may be true, but Tillman's splits suggest that he's working on things. Look at the difference with no outs versus with runners on, and versus with outs. This is just a guess - and it's conditioned on a small sample and no "think through" of other confounding factors - but it looks like he might working on things early in the innings and with none on, and bearing down a bit as he needs to.

You could certainly be right. He did go to the minors to work on stuff. I'll be a little skeptical though until I see him miss some bats in the pros. His K's and LD% just went the wrong way in 09 and 10 as he faced better competition. It's just my guess that they started laying off his curve ball.

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You could certainly be right. He did go to the minors to work on stuff. I'll be a little skeptical though until I see him miss some bats in the pros. His K's and LD% just went the wrong way in 09 and 10 as he faced better competition. It's just my guess that they started laying off his curve ball.

I'm not too worried about his LD%. Looking at other good prospects (Hanson, Price, Buchholz) they all lingered (usually) between 20% and 24%.

Don't get me wrong. I have concerns. I hope only to be pleasantly surprised on Saturday (and going forward).

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I'm not too worried about his LD%. Looking at other good prospects (Hanson, Price, Buchholz) they all lingered (usually) between 20% and 24%.

Don't get me wrong. I have concerns. I hope only to be pleasantly surprised on Saturday (and going forward).

To put my thoughts in context...

I'm actually still very bullish on Tillman. I think he's been talented beyond his years since we got him, but I do think that the jump from AA hitters to ML hitters is a very big one, and that even AAA hitters are a significant challenge. IMO, he'll keep improving, he'll adjust to the competition and he'll eventually be a #2 type of starter for us. I just don't expect his success to be immediate. A Hughes/Bucholz like learning curve isn't out of the question for Tillman.

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