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If he's operating w/in a budge of some kind, it's perfectly reasonable to be skeptical of the quantity/quality correlation that some on here have latched onto.

I don't think this can be emphasized enough. Not to defend AM on this front necessarily, in order to have diminishing returns you need to actually have returns but this point is very valid.

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I don't think this can be emphasized enough. Not to defend AM on this front necessarily, in order to have diminishing returns you need to actually have returns but this point is very valid.

I agree. I don't mean that as a defense of standing pat. Thanks.

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Tony, I think you gave excellent insight in the constraints that MacPhail is working under in budgets and the ability to hire and fire key people. The information about David Stockstill's personality and his relationship with Jordan are eye opening.

Questions:

What do you think the impact of John Stockstill is as Director of Player Development. He does hold that position now, right? That is not the way it is listed on Orioles.com. Does John have a good relationship with Jordan? The one difference I have seen between David and John is the that John has done in season promotions of several players were David kept that to a minumim.

What is Melvin Mora standing with Angelos and MacPhail? Is he someone that can help in Venezuela after he retires as a player. He always bleed Black and Orange. I think he credits the O's with being a big part of the success with his career. I also hear he is thought well of in Venezuela.

What do you expect to happen of the next 10 days with player movement? You verified that exploring trades is MacPhail's priority for the next 10 days. Do you think he will be able to get anyone of value in trade for any of veterans?

Edited by wildcard

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That lays it out pretty cut and dry for me.

MacPhail is the reason Teixeira is not an Oriole, and will be the reason why you will not see a premium FA signed under his watch.

Forget about Fielder, Dunn and anybody who costs over $10 million per season.

It's pathetic really.

I know I'm going back 10+ pages here, but you have a major reading comprehension problem, buddy...

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BTW, I'll go on record as saying that I think he makes a valid point about the issue re: number of scouts and diminishing returns. If he's operating w/in a budge of some kind, it's perfectly reasonable to be skeptical of the quantity/quality correlation that some on here have latched onto.

The problem I have (and I suspect anyone would have who doesn't have a full view of the entire budget) is that they seem to be pennywise and pound foolish. A typical one-year contract for a mediocre free agent (Atkins, Payton, take your pick) is maybe $3-5M. If you pay a scout $75k and have another $75k a year in travel expenses you could hire an additional 18 to 30 scouts for the money you'd save by employing a Rhyne Hughes or a Jon Knott instead of the bad free agent.

Unless I'm waaaaaay off, that's the kind over-the-top investment the Jays made in scouting. They spent the equivalent of one bad free agent. How much return on investment do they get in other areas by spending that kind of money? It's almost impossible to believe they'd get more out of major league free agents than they would out of dozens of new scouts.

Edited by DrungoHazewood
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3 weeks of hype and this is what we get? Pretty disappointing IMO. A lot of info that many have known about for some time.

Also wasn't the Marlins deal for Burnett instead of Beckett?

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The problem I have (and I suspect anyone would have who doesn't have a full view of the entire budget) is that they seem to be pennywise and pound foolish. A typical one-year contract for a mediocre free agent (Atkins, Payton, take your pick) is maybe $3-5M. If you pay a scout $75k and have another $75k a year in travel expenses you could hire an additional 18 to 30 scouts for the money you'd save by employing a Rhyne Hughes or a Jon Knott instead of the bad free agent.

I agree with this in theory. I just don't think buy into the whole interchangeability argument. I'd prefer better FA decisions and smart Int'l scouting decisions.

Clearly, however, there is a disconnect in their perception of "real MLB value" and "probabilistic" value of prospects. It's like dealing w/ public health and the difference re: actual fatalities v. 'statistical lives.' They're not taking the latter value seriously enough.

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Sorry for being late to the discussion....just read the article here out west. It was a nice summary of the last 15 or so years. As we suspected and I'm sure has been discussed, I don't think there were many surprises in there. But there were a few points I found interesting.

1) Confirmation that Angelos still has lackeys in the organization. What I am wondering is whether those people have any more or less autonomy under MacPhail than they did under previous GMs. AM did manage to get D. Stockstill reassigned, so I suppose that might be some indication of AM's authority over the entire operation....in other words, he has more than anyone before him, but still not "full" authority.

2) So we have to ask the Tigers if we can borrow their Venezuelan operation? Weak.

3) Interesting comments on Angelos. Sounds like the losing is taking its toll on more than just the fans. But I'm not sure which is worse, a meddling owner or a disinterested owner. Or, could PA have just about had enough to the point where he thinks it's time to get out?

4) Twice AM raved about the new computer system that tracks the tendencies for all our MiL pitchers. And yet, no mention of the same for our hitters. Did he just fail to mention that, or does it not exist....and if it doesn't, then why the hell not??? :confused:

5) LOL at this part:

Although the exact story remains a close secret, multiple sources indicate that Stockstill and Bernhardt once got some people close to ownership out of some trouble in the Dominican and have job security due to this fact.
So maybe that's why the Orioles have shied away from the Dominican for so long....maybe we aren't welcome down there! :laughlol:

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Why is he making so much of the new computer system as if this is some big accomplishment? From his descriptions of it, it sounds like something pretty basic. A minor-league report! On a computer, with numbers and stuff! Other teams have been doing this for years, so of course it's good that we now have one, but it's hardly something

.

This is one of the things that really stuck out to me too. He mentioned these couple of things that he said he accomplished - the first or second being this computer system and the impression I got is that he really has been able to accomplish very little. That's why he is talkin up a computer system.

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The problem I have (and I suspect anyone would have who doesn't have a full view of the entire budget) is that they seem to be pennywise and pound foolish. A typical one-year contract for a mediocre free agent (Atkins, Payton, take your pick) is maybe $3-5M. If you pay a scout $75k and have another $75k a year in travel expenses you could hire an additional 18 to 30 scouts for the money you'd save by employing a Rhyne Hughes or a Jon Knott instead of the bad free agent.

Unless I'm waaaaaay off, that's the kind over-the-top investment the Jays made in scouting. They spent the equivalent of one bad free agent. How much return on investment do they get in other areas by spending that kind of money? It's almost impossible to believe they'd get more out of major league free agents than they would out of dozens of new scouts.

But to LJ's point I think.. Throwing money at it isn't necessarily wise. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you should spend it in an area that you may not have the structure to take advantage. Furthermore, I haven't seen anything to suggest that some how the Atkins signing directly affected the budget in regards to hiring international scouts.

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It massively more involved then that.

And more expensive then you can imagine.

IT people and software developers bill out at $100 an hour, minimum.

It's at least 5000 man hours to roll out a new system. Minimum. Just to get it up and running. It could easily be twice that to get it ironed out, as much as 4 times that depending on how sophisticated it is.

Minimum: $500,000 investment

More likely $2,000,000 investment over the last 3 years

Those numbers are conservative...and don't even count capital expenses for the servers and laptops.

That's if you're assuming this was a custom project vs a COTS app. COTS app is going to be much cheaper. I'd love to see how involved this system is.

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But to LJ's point I think.. Throwing money at it isn't necessarily wise. Just because you have the money doesn't mean you should spend it in an area that you may not have the structure to take advantage. Furthermore, I haven't seen anything to suggest that some how the Atkins signing directly affected the budget in regards to hiring international scouts.

How about you throw money at it in intelligent ways?

I mean, does that really need to be a caveat?

I don;t want the Orioles hire guys off the street to be scouts but I do want them to hire more scouts...The Orioles only have scouts in the dominican. They only have regional cross checkers in so many areas. They need more of it.

Saying that quality over quantity is smart isn't some difficult concept to figure out. However, how about quality AND quantity?

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From Roch's blog in the comments section.

Ralph | July 21, 2010 1:19 PM | Reply

Nice to see the good folks at MASN, employed by Peter Angelos and the O's, are responding the the piece at Orioles Hangout today.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Nice try, but you're not baiting me into an argument. Nothing to "respond" to. Nothing we haven't heard before (except it was Burnett, not Beckett, and there were other concerns about Lowell besides hip and average). And we know the main "source" supplying all the info. It's obvious to all of us on the beat. I'm sure it makes for a good read for some people, and Tony went to a lot of time and trouble to produce it. There, I responded. Tell Kyle I said hello, since his name is all over this IP address. - Roch

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AM is never going to "throw" himself into something completely new - he's going to slowly ramp things up. In a lot of our deficient areas, he's started that. He needs to follow through. We've seen signs, but we haven't seen enough. But those seeking a quick turnaround built on a lot of high-dollar outlays were bound to be disappointed.

BTW, I'll go on record as saying that I think he makes a valid point about the issue re: number of scouts and diminishing returns. If he's operating w/in a budge of some kind, it's perfectly reasonable to be skeptical of the quantity/quality correlation that some on here have latched onto.

I don't think anyone was expecting a turnaround "overnight," but I think as the last few seasons have gone progressively worse, the level of alarm has increased dramatically within the fanbase. Being a younger fan who doesn't live in the area and who lives in Yankee country, this effect has been certainly magnified.

It is obvious there are problems abound throughout the entire organization. After re-reading the piece, I still think McPhail is doing poorly. His attempts at building some semblance of a foundation in a foundationless environment are noted, but like you said, it hasnt been enough. Ultimately though, I don't think much can change until there is a new ownership group. Many of these problems seem so entrenched, there is little McPhail can do. (Stockstill, etc.)

Edited by abmun2121

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