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Hoes and Avery top 100 prospects?

Would you be surprised to see Avery or Hoes on top 100 lists?  

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  1. 1. Would you be surprised to see Avery or Hoes on top 100 lists?



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OK, how about some facts? Look over the BA Top 100 list from last year, and find me someone like Hoes. I looked, and there are 2 true 2B, and only one you could really compare to Hoes. At age *19*, Brett Lawrie OPS'ed .802, hit 13 HR and drove in 65 at Hi A, with a decent eye at the plate (and the Midwest League is a tough hitters league). He also stole 19 bases, and held his own in 13 games at AA. He was number 59. Hoes' power numbers aren't even in the same universe. It's nice and all that he's been getting walks, but everything else is rather pedestrian.

This is why I voted neither. Hoes may be having a solid season, but as a 2bman, you have to have a high ceiling to be an overall top 100 prospect. Hoes doesn't project to hit for power or do much on the bases, and he's still a little bit of a mystery defensively.

IMO, Avery has more of a chance to make it onto top prospect lists just because he has louder tools. I'd still be surprised to even hear him in discussions for a top 100 list, but if he stays hot for the rest of the year and starts to polish up some of his rough edges, he could rise quickly in scouting circles.

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OK, how about some facts? Look over the BA Top 100 list from last year, and find me someone like Hoes. I looked, and there are 2 true 2B, and only one you could really compare to Hoes. At age *19*, Brett Lawrie OPS'ed .802, hit 13 HR and drove in 65 at Hi A, with a decent eye at the plate (and the Midwest League is a tough hitters league). He also stole 19 bases, and held his own in 13 games at AA. He was number 59. Hoes' power numbers aren't even in the same universe. It's nice and all that he's been getting walks, but everything else is rather pedestrian.

Hoes' power has been sapped as of late by his sickness(mono). He was on par to hit between 8-10 HRs. His patience is better than Lawrie's was. Lawrie was also the 16th overall pick in the 08 draft while Hoes was a 3rd rounder. Considering that Hoes OPS is approaching the .800 mark again now that he is close to 100% again, do you think it is that far of a stretch of the imagination for him to be at the tail end of top 100 lists if Lawrie was rated #59? I don't, especially if he can find some success in AA.

Also, after doing a quick glance at the preseaosn top 100 list, Lawrie is the only true 2B at #59. IMO, after looking at your example, I'd be more optimistic of him making the list rather than less optmistic.

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Hoes' power has been sapped as of late by his sickness(mono). He was on par to hit between 8-10 HRs. His patience is better than Lawrie's was. Lawrie was also the 16th overall pick in the 08 draft while Hoes was a 3rd rounder. Considering that Hoes OPS is approaching the .800 mark again now that he is close to 100% again, do you think it is that far of a stretch of the imagination for him to be at the tail end of top 100 lists if Lawrie was rated #59? I don't, especially if he can find some success in AA.

Also, after doing a quick glance at the preseaosn top 100 list, Lawrie is the only true 2B at #59. IMO, after looking at your example, I'd be more optimistic of him making the list rather than less optmistic.

It's fine. At the end of the day, we have differing opinions of a stupid list.

It's not like his inclusion/exclusion on a list has any bearing on what he will be. Don't get me wrong - while I don't think he's the type of guy who will get hype for a list (at this time), I do think he's a good prospect.

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Hoes' power has been sapped as of late by his sickness(mono). He was on par to hit between 8-10 HRs. His patience is better than Lawrie's was. Lawrie was also the 16th overall pick in the 08 draft while Hoes was a 3rd rounder. Considering that Hoes OPS is approaching the .800 mark again now that he is close to 100% again, do you think it is that far of a stretch of the imagination for him to be at the tail end of top 100 lists if Lawrie was rated #59? I don't, especially if he can find some success in AA.

Also, after doing a quick glance at the preseaosn top 100 list, Lawrie is the only true 2B at #59. IMO, after looking at your example, I'd be more optimistic of him making the list rather than less optmistic.

I like Hoes, and I believe that in 2-3 years he could be ready to make an impact as an everyday 2nd baseman, but I don't think he should be on any top 100 lists. Like you said, I'm sure his sickness drained a lot of his strength, but there's about 800 at bats worth of data that show that Hoes has never hit for much power. In fact, apart from an 8 game rehab stretch in Aberdeen, he's never had a slugging percentage over .400. Hopefully he continues to stay healthy and produce in Frederick, but even in his hot streaks, the power is absent.

So, while the patience is very nice to see, there's not enough there to warrant being on a top 100 list. He's not a sure bet to stick at 2nd, he probably will never steal more than 15-20 bases at the major league level, and sickness or not, the power has never been there throughout his minor league career. I think he'll provide a healthy OBP to our lineup in a few years, and there's a lot of value in that, but I don't think he has the tools that jump out enough to sneak onto a top prospect list as of now.

As of now, I only see Britton, Machado, and Bell making any lists, and I'm not sure if I'd rank Hoes ahead of Snyder or Avery on our own prospect list.

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It's fine. At the end of the day, we have differing opinions of a stupid list.

It's not like his inclusion/exclusion on a list has any bearing on what he will be. Don't get me wrong - while I don't think he's the type of guy who will get hype for a list (at this time), I do think he's a good prospect.

Ha, I actually agree with this. A players' prospect ranking ceases to be relevant as soon as he sees or throws his first pitch in MLB, and I'm not sure that it is all that meaningful before. I guess it may slightly add to his putative value in a trade, though I doubt whether most teams are silly enough even to pay much attention.

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OK, how about some facts?

Okeydokey.

At age *19*, Brett Lawrie OPS'ed .802, hit 13 HR and drove in 65 at Hi A,

Um, the Midwest League is Low A. High A is the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

the Midwest League is a tough hitters league

Er, compared to what? Minor League Splits says that if Lawrie had played at Delmarva, his OPS would have been 10 points lower.

He also stole 19 bases

Uh, it took him 30 attempts! c.f. Hoes's 20 for 25 at Delmarva.

He was number 59.

Yep, he's a better prospect than Hoes - but if LJ keeps hitting the way he has for the past couple of weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 80-100 range.

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Okeydokey.

Um, the Midwest League is Low A. High A is the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

Thanks. I assumed it was A+ because he went to AA from there.

Er, compared to what? Minor League Splits says that if Lawrie had played at Delmarva, his OPS would have been 10 points lower.

Says this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-run-environments/

Uh, it took him 30 attempts! c.f. Hoes's 20 for 25 at Delmarva.
Uh, OK. I was just throwing it in. It shows he can move a little.
Yep, he's a better prospect than Hoes - but if LJ keeps hitting the way he has for the past couple of weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 80-100 range.

Yes he is a better prospect, by quite a bit.

Again, I don't care if Hoes is on a list or not. But I don't think he will be (at this time).

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I think the unknown part of the equation is defense. Hoes definitely looks to me like a guy whose bat would play at 2B. But can he defend there?

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I think the unknown part of the equation is defense. Hoes definitely looks to me like a guy whose bat would play at 2B. But can he defend there?

His defense is much improved over last year, thats for sure. Somewhere in this post it says he has made half the amount of errors he made last year in Delmarva, though he has missed some time.....He is certainly improving, for a kid that was an OFer coming out of HS, he is doing pretty well......I recall Tony saying many in the org thinks Hoes is gonna be our 3B of the future, but I'd rather him stay at 2B. We have plenty of future options at 3B.

After doing some quick research to reply to McLovin, I didn't realize how few true 2B top prospects that there are.....

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Okeydokey.

Um, the Midwest League is Low A. High A is the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League.

Er, compared to what? Minor League Splits says that if Lawrie had played at Delmarva, his OPS would have been 10 points lower.

Uh, it took him 30 attempts! c.f. Hoes's 20 for 25 at Delmarva.

Yep, he's a better prospect than Hoes - but if LJ keeps hitting the way he has for the past couple of weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 80-100 range.

Thanks. I assumed it was A+ because he went to AA from there.

Says this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-run-environments/

Uh, OK. I was just throwing it in. It shows he can move a little.

Yes he is a better prospect, by quite a bit.

Again, I don't care if Hoes is on a list or not. But I don't think he will be (at this time).

So, if we just figured out that Lawrie did this in A ball, not HiA, what makes him so much greater of a prospect? He showed a little more pop, but not a ridiculous amount of pop. Hoes has much better discipline and had a similar OPS at a higher level and is now in AA where he just had a 2-4 night(of course it was his first game so its a SSS). Lawrie also like I said above was the 16th overall pick from the 08 draft. I dunno, I just think you are shortchanging Hoes a bit because you saw him in Aberdeen on his rehab assignment and have a bit of a salty taste in your mouth because he looked rusty, which I don't blame you for.

I am not saying Hoes is a better prospect than Lawrie, but it is closer than some folks are trying to make it seem IMO......

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So, if we just figured out that Lawrie did this in A ball, not HiA, what makes him so much greater of a prospect? He showed a little more pop, but not a ridiculous amount of pop. Hoes has much better discipline and had a similar OPS at a higher level and is now in AA where he just had a 2-4 night(of course it was his first game so its a SSS). Lawrie also like I said above was the 16th overall pick from the 08 draft. I dunno, I just think you are shortchanging Hoes a bit because you saw him in Aberdeen on his rehab assignment and have a bit of a salty taste in your mouth because he looked rusty, which I don't blame you for.

I am not saying Hoes is a better prospect than Lawrie, but it is closer than some folks are trying to make it seem IMO......

It's been belabored already. You have your opinion, I have mine. It's a list for crying out loud. Yes, a list he will not be on, but still, just a list...

Edit: and no, seeing Hoes on rehab has little to do with my opinion regarding a Top 100 list. Hoes was clearly the best player on the field when I saw him, while being the youngest.

I like him a lot as a player, I just don't see the hype and numbers to get him on a list.

Edited by McLovin

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His defense is much improved over last year, thats for sure. Somewhere in this post it says he has made half the amount of errors he made last year in Delmarva, though he has missed some time.....He is certainly improving, for a kid that was an OFer coming out of HS, he is doing pretty well......I recall Tony saying many in the org thinks Hoes is gonna be our 3B of the future, but I'd rather him stay at 2B. We have plenty of future options at 3B.

Hoes made 28 errors in 107 games in 2009 (.939 fielding %), and only 8 in 51 games this year (.969). That's still a pretty high error rate for a 2B. His range factor is better (4.90 vs. 4.05) and he is turning DP's more frequently. So, the stats suggest he's making good progress. However, there's a lot that the stats can't tell you in terms of how well he is handling things defensively and how far he is from being able to play 2B at the major league level.

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It's been belabored already. You have your opinion, I have mine. It's a list for crying out loud. Yes, a list he will not be on, but still, just a list...

Edit: and no, seeing Hoes on rehab has little to do with my opinion regarding a Top 100 list. Hoes was clearly the best player on the field when I saw him, while being the youngest.

I like him a lot as a player, I just don't see the hype and numbers to get him on a list.

If its my opinion against yours, then when you say your opinion, say in your opinion rather than stating it as a fact.

Hoes made 28 errors in 107 games in 2009 (.939 fielding %), and only 8 in 51 games this year (.969). That's still a pretty high error rate for a 2B. His range factor is better (4.90 vs. 4.05) and he is turning DP's more frequently. So, the stats suggest he's making good progress. However, there's a lot that the stats can't tell you in terms of how well he is handling things defensively and how far he is from being able to play 2B at the major league level.

I agree and I do think with proper time down in the MiL, he can develop into a decent fielding 2B, but I am afraid(dunno if its a bad thing) that his bat will be ready before his glove will be...

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It's been belabored already. You have your opinion, I have mine. It's a list for crying out loud. Yes, a list he will not be on, but still, just a list...

Edit: and no, seeing Hoes on rehab has little to do with my opinion regarding a Top 100 list. Hoes was clearly the best player on the field when I saw him, while being the youngest.

I like him a lot as a player, I just don't see the hype and numbers to get him on a list.

Ultimately, this is why I think that Hoes might be a stretch (poll question confused me). The numbers are sort of there, but they aren't special. And there really isn't much hype around him.

I think theres always 250-300 guys who could theoretically make a case for inclusion on to the lists, but things such as great seasons, hype, and age become the deciding factors. While I think Hoes has enough to have earned a spot, I also think there are likely many other prospects who have done a bit more.

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If its my opinion against yours, then when you say your opinion, say in your opinion rather than stating it as a fact.

If it's not obvious that it's an opinion, from the nature of the statement, I don't know what to tell you. I stated that way to bust your chops, but now I know that you lack a sense of humor, and will try to be more literal in our future dealings.

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