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Art Wing

How Much Does the Hobgood Pick Affect Your Opinion of Joe Jordan?

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Billy Rowell was a consensus top 10 pick.

I don't believe this is correct. Rowell was the consensus top HS power bat. IIRC, he was generally considered around top 12-17. Several/many considered Travis Snider a better overall hitter but had concerns that Snider would be a defensive liability.

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This is a bit much, don't you think? You want our guy to go with a consensus talent instead of who his gut feeling? I end up posting this multiple times a year, but our most "consensus" draft was 2001 when the Os ended up with six BA Top 100 guys in Smith, Fontenot, Bass, Lewis, Crouthers and JJ. Beato was a BA Top 15 guy before 2006. The consensus is wrong on the time.

The Hobgood pick is clearly on Joe Jordan and I expect he would be the first one to admit it. It was on JJ before the decision to go with Hobgood, immediately after and still today. It may well have been a blown pick and our system could use an additional big time prospect, but JJ is not the first Scouting Director to blow a high draft pick and he won't be the last. Folks here often think it was easy to pick Wieters and Matusz and have posted that he deserves little credit for it. Tim Beckham/Ross Detwiler and many other very early picks are not turning out so well. It comes with the territory.

Missing on Hobgood is hardly a "legacy ruining pick".

Maybe I worded it a bit too harshly. Drungo said it better - "You go out on a limb, you go against consensus, you're putting your read end on the line. When virtually all of the early returns are negative, your reputation has to take a hit. Hobgood could still turn things around, but you have to think the odds are 80/20 against, if not worse."

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I'm surprised that more people aren't up in arms about the Orioles drafting a developing 3-4 MLB worthy high schoolers over the past twenty years, and that list starts with Jerry Hairston Jr.

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I'm surprised that more people aren't up in arms about the Orioles drafting a developing 3-4 MLB worthy high schoolers over the past twenty years, and that list starts with Jerry Hairston Jr.

How much more up in arms would you like us to be? Pitchforks and torches outside the warehouse nightly?

I think most here would readily acknowledge that the failures of the amateur acquisition and development system are the #1 cause of the demise of the Oriole franchise over the last 25+ years. A team in their market simply cannot consistently win with the farm system they've had.

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Jordan wasnt a MacPhail pick. If MacPhail returns next year with an extention on his contract I would guess that Jordan is gone. If we get a new General Manager next year I would guess Jordan is gone.

I think Jordan is gone unless his picks have a major season and he has multiple kids really start showing what they are made of.

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I'm not trying to take away from the good discussion in the other Hobgood thread but I'm curious how much this one pick influences your overall opinion of Joe Jordan.

Is the power of one vastly unpopular and likely failed pick enough for you to look past Jordan's entire body of work? Yes? No? Somewhere in between?

Keep in mind, I'm well aware of the inherent risk any prospect holds to produce and succeed at the major league level but it was pretty clear at the time Jordan isolated himself with such a risky choice. I believe Frobby said something along the lines of Jordan would eventually either look like a genius or a failure.

How much does this one pick shadow Jordan's career? Anyone calling for his head or do you give him a pass?[/quote

One pick, either a great find or a bust, won't influence my opinion of JJ or any other individual. One must look at the entire body of work plus know what restraints or guidelines JJ operates under to make a fair valuation. I can't rate his performance on one pick.:beerchug1:

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I don't think the pick in and of itself means that much, though the particular player Jordan decided to "go against convention" with is a REAL headscratcher, considering the cross-section of non-projectable, heavy, right, high school, pitcher.

I'm more concerned with the overall draft philosophy, which I think has missed a lot of opportunities to add 1) higher ceiling prospects, and 2) higher probability prospects. I think BAL has dipped a little in each pool, and the results over the last two drafts have not been impressive (though it's still early).

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I'm surprised that more people aren't up in arms about the Orioles drafting a developing 3-4 MLB worthy high schoolers over the past twenty years, and that list starts with Jerry Hairston Jr.

Well I'm sure the Southern Illinois University alumni association is pretty upset about the list. Sure, SIU's not the Ivy League - but high school?

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Well I'm sure the Southern Illinois University alumni association is pretty upset about the list. Sure, SIU's not the Ivy League - but high school?

I see what you did there. We drafted Hairston in 1995 first out of high school... got him in the 1997 draft out of college. My bad. I guess technically he doesn't even count then.

I also forgot Luis Matos. I saw that he went to "Colegio Discipulos De Cristo" in Puerto Rico and assumed that was a college. It's actually a high school, and I took french.

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I remember MacPhail having said when he first got here that the Orioles would have to excel at scouting and not just be run of the mill.

Obviously we arent excelling. I dont think anyone would suggest that we are. I think it is probably time for a change in leadership of the scouting department. The scouting department is one of the last remaining holdovers from before the MacPhail era.

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Before he came to the O's, Jordan was a very highly regarded, respected scout. He received credit for a fruitful Miami system. People in the industry hold him in very high regard.

Obviously, some of his top picks have not done as well as we'd have hoped (Snyder, Rowell, Hobgood, etc). There is luck involved. Plus, I'm not sure our teaching and coaching is as good as it should be.

The Hobgood pick might have been about signability. Or it might have been a mandate from above (MacPhail/Angelos). Or maybe it was because he was the Gatorade High School Player of the Year who could throw 96 MPH with a Major League caliber curve and his husky frame was thought to make him injury resistant.

Seeing as we've had (some) success with Matuz and Wieters, and whiffed on these other 3, I'm wondering why we don't stick to college players more...? Hopefully Machado will buck the trend....

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Before he came to the O's, Jordan was a very highly regarded, respected scout. He received credit for a fruitful Miami system. People in the industry hold him in very high regard.

Obviously, some of his top picks have not done as well as we'd have hoped (Snyder, Rowell, Hobgood, etc). There is luck involved. Plus, I'm not sure our teaching and coaching is as good as it should be.

The Hobgood pick might have been about signability. Or it might have been a mandate from above (MacPhail/Angelos). Or maybe it was because he was the Gatorade High School Player of the Year who could throw 96 MPH with a Major League caliber curve and his husky frame was thought to make him injury resistant.

Seeing as we've had (some) success with Matuz and Wieters, and whiffed on these other 3, I'm wondering why we don't stick to college players more...? Hopefully Machado will buck the trend....

Because its the same reason that some people will buy $20 scratch tickets, greater reward. Sure, you can buy the $2 ticket, but the reward isn't as great as it is with the $20 ticket.

Now, of course, if you can find a $2 ticket that has a similar reward as a $20 ticket, you buy that ticket which is a better analogy for this draft and the 07 and 08 drafts in which a college player had a similar upside and was much safer than the HS picks with our picks in the 1st.

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I don't think the question is relevant. They scrimped on the first pick,and I believe MacPhail/Jordan did the best they could.It was a money thing.Hobgood's signing bonus was well below that of Matusz, Wieters and Machado.

You want to blame somebody; blame Angelos, not Jordan.

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Seeing as we've had (some) success with Matuz and Wieters, and whiffed on these other 3, I'm wondering why we don't stick to college players more...? Hopefully Machado will buck the trend....

Because you can't get meaningful information out of three picks. There are risk profiles for all types of draft picks, and you include that in your decision making process. But you're almost certainly doing more harm than good by excluding a very large segment of the player pool. Even the A's, at the height of the Moneyball craze, still picked some high schoolers. And Billy Beane's team certainly picks high schoolers now - since 2005 they've picked more high schoolers than college players in the 2nd round.

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