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Frobby

Injuries happen

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The reason I break it down between the position players, starters and relievers is so that people can decide for themselves how they want to weigh it. My personal view is that having a starting pitcher out for 54 games is just as important as having a position player out that long (sometimes, more important), even if the starting pitcher might only have made 10-11 starts in that amount of time.

If that's the case, then are we discounting relievers and only counting starting pitchers and starting position players?

Orioles: Markakis, Reimold, Roberts, Britton, Reynolds = 5

Red Sox: Matsusaka, Crawford, Ellsbury, Youkilis = 4

Yankees: Pineda, Gardner = 2

Tampa: Longoria, Jennings, Niemann, Fuld = 4

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So who is coming back in the next month who may make a difference?

Orioles - Hammel, Patton

Yankees - ARod, Teixeira, Pettitte

Rays - nobody

White Sox - De Aza, Hudson

Tigers - Raburn, Schlereth

Angels - Bourjos

A's - Griffin, Inge, Devine, Norberto, Sogard

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So who is coming back in the next month who may make a difference?

Orioles - Hammel, Patton

Yankees - ARod, Teixeira, Pettitte

Rays - nobody

White Sox - De Aza, Hudson

Tigers - Raburn, Schlereth

Angels - Bourjos

A's - Griffin, Inge, Devine, Norberto, Sogard

Hudson won't make a difference for the White Sox.

And Inge is done for the season sans maybe a PH appearance or two.

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So who is coming back in the next month who may make a difference?

Orioles - Hammel, Patton

Yankees - ARod, Teixeira, Pettitte

Rays - nobody

White Sox - De Aza, Hudson

Tigers - Raburn, Schlereth

Angels - Bourjos

A's - Griffin, Inge, Devine, Norberto, Sogard

Inge is going to shut it down, iirc.

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Here are the totals from 2012. Details appear below.

Boston -- 1155 games lost (24 players on the DL at one time or another) (excludes Lackey, who missed the entire year with an injury suffered in 2011).

Baltimore - 961 games lost (16 players on the DL at one time or another) (excludes Wada, who missed the entire year after being injured in spring training).

New York -- 862 days lost (excludes Pineda, who missed the whole year after showing up to spring training with a shoulder injury, and Betances, who never played this year).

Tampa -- 784 days lost (excludes Chirinos, who missed the entire year, if anyone cares).

Toronto -- 774 days lost (excludes McGowan and Litsch, who missed the whole year with injuries from 2011)

All these totals were extremely high. Last year, Boston led the division with 804 days missed and no other team was above 650. A few other notes:

The Orioles lost the most days from position players, 695. Toronto missed the fewest, 237. New York was very low, at 320. Boston lost 609 and Tampa was at exactly 600.

The Blue Jays missed by far the most days from their starting pitchers, 262 days, as 3/5 of their rotation went down with long-term injuries in a single week in June. They couldn't recover from that because they had three spots to fill at the same time, and they already were thin because McGowan and Litsch were sitting out the season with injuries from 2011. The Red Sox lost 145 games from starters, while the other three teams were all between 105-107.

New York missed the most games from the bullpen, 437, including losing Rivera for 137 games. Boston was close behind at 401, then Toronto 273, Baltimore 161, Tampa 77.

Here are the details:

Baltimore

Position Players: Roberts (144), Teagarden (86), Reimold (137), Chavez (43), Reynolds (16), Markakis (58), N. Johnson (87), Andino (17), Thome (73), Betemit (14), Flaherty (20)

Starters: Hammel (50), Britton (55)

Relievers: Pomeranz (106), Lindstrom (22), Patton (25)

Total - 695 position players, 105 starters (excl. Wada), 161 relievers = 961 games missed

Boston

Position Players: Crawford (130), Ellsbury (86), McDonald (23), Kalish (59), Sweeney (83), Ross (28), Podesdnik (16), Youkilis (22), Pedroia (10), Ortiz (35), Nava (25), Middlebrooks (47), Repko (55)

Starters: Matsusaka (59), Beckett (13), Buchholz (16), Cook (44), Doubront (13)

Relievers: Bailey (116), Hill (74), Atchison (54), Carpenter (105), Padilla (15), Morales (37)

Total - 609 position players, 145 starters (excl. Lackey), 401 relievers (excl. Jenks) = 1155 games missed

New York

Position Players: Chavez (7), Rodriguez (36), Romine (124), Gardner (153)

Starters: Sabathia (33), Pettitte (72), Nova (16)

Relievers: Robertson (28), Rivera (137), Chamberlain (103), Aardsma (153)

Total - 320 position players, 121 starters (excl. Pineda, Meyers), 421 relievers (excl. Cabral) = 862 games missed

Tampa

Position Players: Fuld (96), Upton (13), Longoria (109), Jennings (54), Allen (55), Scott (47), Keppinger (28), Joyce (24), Guyer (132), Lobaton (42)

Starters: Hellickson (11), Niemann (96)

Relievers: Farnsworth (77)

Total - 600 position players, 107 starters, 77 relievers = 784 games missed

Toronto

Position Players: Bautista (70 games), Cooper (39 games), Arencibia (39 games), Lind (29 games), Lawrie (30 games) Francisco (30 games)

Starters: Hutchison (98), Drabek (99), Morrow (65)

Relievers: Santos (149), Perez (76), Frasor (48 games)

Total - 237 position players, 262 starters, 273 relievers = 772 games missed

Edited by Frobby

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Drungo pointed me to an interesting article in BP that looks at WARP (BP's version of WAR) lost to injuries. For 2012 in the AL East:

1.Baltimore Orioles, 2.96 Total Adjusted Wins Lost (13th in MLB)

2.Toronto Blue Jays, 5.33 TAWL (25th)

3.Tampa Bay Rays, 5.33 TAWL (26th)

4.New York Yankees, 7.65 TAWL (29th)

5.Boston Red Sox 7.97 TAWL (30th)

Here is the writeup on the Orioles:

Baltimore Orioles

Total Adjusted WARP Lost (TAWL): 2.96

Number of DL trips (Days): 24 (1455)

Number of DL & DTD trips (Days): 53 (1550)

The Orioles were the most surprising team in the AL East, making it into the ALDS after upsetting the Rangers in the wild-card play-in. Though they ranked 13th in TAWL, they ranked 26th in the number of DL stints and 25th in days lost, indicating they were a little lucky in who got hurt and who didn’t.In 2012, Nick Markakis suffered two injuries that cost the Orioles the most. Between surgeries on his fractured hamate bone in his right wrist and left thumb surgery to also address a fracture, he missed 58 games, leading to 0.60 TAWL. Nolan Reimold missed almost the entire season because of a disc injury; he underwent surgery in June to fix the disc, missed the rest of the season, and lost 0.50 TAWL. Jim Thome played for the Phillies and wound up on the DL, and he did the same following his trade to the Orioles. He went on the DL for a herniated disc in his neck and came in third on the team with 0.49 TAWL. Wilson Betemit dealt with a small cartilage tear in his wrist toward the end of the season, missing 37 games in all and 0.27 TAWL. Brian Roberts couldn’t stay healthy and missed 144 games, leading to a -0.15 TAWL.

Jason Hammel sustained the only costly pitching injury by missing 83 games because of his right knee injuries.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18924

In 2011, the Oriole totals were:

Total Adjusted WARP Lost (TAWL): 3.48

Number of DL trips (Days): 14 (738)

Number of DL & DTD trips (Days): 49 (829)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15576

So, the long and short of this is that the Orioles had an unusually high number of injuries in 2012, but they did not lose an exceptional amount of time from important players; in fact, they did a little better than average in that regard. However, it doesn't appear that the differences between the injury rates on the various AL East teams had an impact in the standings. We finished 3 games ahead of Tampa and the difference accounted for due to injury was 2.37 wins. That would have been tight, but Boston and Toronto would have been at the bottom even if healthy according to this analysis.

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Frobby, in that BP quote you post, it sounds like they calculated that Brian Roberts' injury actually had a net positive effect on the Orioles' win total?

Also, I think they underestimated Nolan Reimold, as they put his lost contribution for the whole season as less than Markakis' lost contribution for 60 games. But I tend to think Reimold is underestimated all the time, so it's probably just my own bias creeping in.

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Frobby, in that BP quote you post, it sounds like they calculated that Brian Roberts' injury actually had a net positive effect on the Orioles' win total?

Also, I think they underestimated Nolan Reimold, as they put his lost contribution for the whole season as less than Markakis' lost contribution for 60 games. But I tend to think Reimold is underestimated all the time, so it's probably just my own bias creeping in.

That is because it isn't a real stat. It is pure projection (guesswork) on what the injured players would have done. The amount of time missed due to injury is fact. TAWL is not. If projections were what mattered, the Orioles would have lost 100 games last year.

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Frobby, in that BP quote you post, it sounds like they calculated that Brian Roberts' injury actually had a net positive effect on the Orioles' win total?

Also, I think they underestimated Nolan Reimold, as they put his lost contribution for the whole season as less than Markakis' lost contribution for 60 games. But I tend to think Reimold is underestimated all the time, so it's probably just my own bias creeping in.

He did play well below replacement level last season.

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I have to think that, with the way he was hitting, the Reimold injury did more damage then that.
Frobby, in that BP quote you post, it sounds like they calculated that Brian Roberts' injury actually had a net positive effect on the Orioles' win total?

Also, I think they underestimated Nolan Reimold, as they put his lost contribution for the whole season as less than Markakis' lost contribution for 60 games. But I tend to think Reimold is underestimated all the time, so it's probably just my own bias creeping in.

In a piece like that they are going to have to take a conservative approach, using established track records for projections. Nolan Reimold has never played at the level he played in April before. At least not for anything more than a few weeks. His expected performance has to be something like his career averages. And Roberts has played as a replacement-level player over the past three seasons combined, so it would be quite a stretch to assume he'd have done better than that given that when he actually played this year he was flatly terrible.

You can argue that the O's might have suffered more since those players were capable of doing better than those projections. But I'm sure the other teams in the division could make similar arguments.

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Here are the 2013 numbers in the AL East. These numbers exclude any players who didn't play all year.

New York -- 1174 games lost (15 players at one time or another)

Toronto -- 941 games lost (17 players)

Boston -- 798 games lost (17 players)

Baltimore -- 554 games lost (10 players)

Tampa -- 268 games lost (6 players)

The Yankee offense really got clobbered, with 1,049 games lost, including many key players. The Blue Jays got hit pretty hard in all areas. The Red Sox's everyday lineup stayed healthy, but the bullpen got hit very hard. The Orioles had what I'd normally call an average number of injuries, but their key players stayed pretty healthy. Tampa was ridiculously healthy, as always.

Baltimore

Position players: Betemit 129, Reimold 113, Roberts 79, Pearce 54, Teagarden 34 = 409

Starters: Chen 54, Hammel 36, Gonzalez 14 = 104

Relievers: S. Johnson 27, Strop 14 = 41

Boston

Position players: Ross 70, Drew 23, Snyder 20, Victorino 17, Ellsbury 16, Middlebrooks 16, Ortiz 15 = 177

Starters: Buchholz 83, Lackey 20 = 103

Relievers: Hanrahan 130, Morales 95, Bailey 88, Miller 73, Wilson 71, Breslow 31, Mortensen 15, Thornton 15 = 518

New York

Teixeira 147, Jeter 145, Cervelli 140, Youkilis 126, Rodriguez 110, Granderson 98, Cruz 63, Nix 59, Hafner 58, Nunez 56 Almonte 47 = 1049

Starters: Phelps 64, Nova 26, Pettite 16 = 96

Relievers: Chamberlain 29

Tampa

Position players: Scott 41, Jennings 12 = 53

Starters: Cobb 51, Price 44, Moore 31 = 126

Relievers: Gomes 89

Toronto

Position players: Reyes 66, Cabrera 54, Lawrie 54, Bautista 37, Izturis 36, Rasmus 29, Davis 20, Encarnacion 13 = 309

Starters: Morrow 110, Johnson 87, Happ 79 = 276

Relievers: Ortiz 105, Santos 97, McGowan 91, Delabar 28, Oliver 19, Cecil 16 = 356

Edited by Frobby

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Baltimore

2010: 651 (281, 12, 358)

2011: 569 (396, 126, 47)

2012: 953 (695, 105, 153)

2013: 554 (409,104, 41)

Boston

2010: 777 (652, 91, 33)

2011: 800 (204, 245, 351)

2012: 1155 (609, 145, 40)

2013: 798 (177, 103, 518)

New York

2010: 575 (220, 57, 298)

2011: 656 (218, 110, 328)

2012: 878 (320, 121, 437)

2013: 1174 (1049, 96, 29)

Tampa

2010: 300 (210, 37, 53)

2011: 271 (123, 100, 58)

2012: 774 (600, 107, 77)

2013: 268 (53, 126, 89)

Toronto

2010: 495 (161, 257, 77)

2011: 353 (173, 98, 82)

2012: 772 (237, 262, 273)

2013: 941 (309, 276, 356)

So, an "average" injury year looks something like this: 687 (355, 129, 203).

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