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  2. https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/5/27/top-101-mlb-draft-player-rankings
  3. “(Editor’s Note: This is a draft board written and ranked by Nathaniel Plotts. You may know him as @eccentricladdie on Twitter. His primer below explains how this differs from our Top 101 and we’re excited to share his version, which relies heavily on an analytical point of view) This board is a bit different than your typical board. A lot of teams these days value draft models, and this board--while not an actual model--will be a bit more in alignment with teams who weigh models heavily. Models are unique team-to-team, but most teams’ inputs are filled with TrackMan data, Blast Motion data, Rapsodo data (for prep pitchers mainly), and more modern mechanical traits that are easily identifiable on motion capture devices (for hitters) such as upper/lower body separation, proper kinetic sequencing, arm path, Vertical Bat Angle (a newer one that some of the more progressive teams have begun looking into that I think has real value for evaluation purposes), etc. All this is not to say that a traditional type board is without value, as the best scouting departments, in my opinion, are able to look at the traditional scouting reports and the data-centric scouting reports to come up with a singular opinion on a prospect. An organization who weighs one over the other significantly (e.g. Houston not listening to scouts at all under Jeff Luhnhow) is likely leaving potential paths for talent discovery on the table. So while this board might be a bit against the grain in some ways, I would caution you not to view data as the end-all-be-all, and similarly not to view true “eye-test” scouting as the end-all-be-all. There is a place for both, and utilizing both is a way to potentially optimize the talent an organization has in their scouting department. Scouting Vernacular VBA — Vertical Bat Angle, the angle of the bat at contact. For example, a perfectly flat bat would achieve a 0° VBA and a bat that is perpendicular to the ground would achieve a 90° VBA. VBA is positively correlated with BABIP and xwOBA among other metrics as a steeper (normally > 30°) VBA tends to allow the hitter to decrease the batted ball spin thus increasing distance and the consistency of quality contact. Launch Angle Tightness — How close are a player's batted balls to his average launch angle? A common metric used to measure this is Launch Angle Standard Deviation. Similar to VBA, Launch Angle Tightness allows the evaluator to get a better understanding for how consistently a hitter is able to produce solid contact — if their LA Standard Deviation is lower, they’re hitting more balls closer to their average LA which means they’re minimizing miss hits (extremely high and low LAs). Spin Efficiency, Transverse Spin, Gyro Spin — All three of these phrases are terms pertaining to movement characteristics on a pitch. A pitch with a high spin efficiency will have more transverse spin which is spin that leads to movement, and a pitch with a low spin efficiency will have a high amount of gyro spin which is spin that doesn’t lead to movement (think football spin) . Normally, FBs and CBs should have higher spin efficiencies to generate more transverse spin resulting in carry/run for a FB and sweep/drop for a CB. SLs, on the other hand, should have lower spin efficiencies as the goal is to stop it from having too much backspin (cutter/fastball movement profile) or too much topspin (curveball profile). Spin Axis — Another phrase pertaining to pitch design/movement characteristics. Spin axis describes the axis that the pitch spins on. A pitch with pure backspin will be thrown with a 12:00 axis and a pitch with pure topspin will be thrown with a 6:00 axis. Progressive teams tend to value fastballs with vertical axes (12:30 for RHP, 11:30 for LHP) as those axes generate carry up in the zone which leads to swings and misses. Batted Ball Profile — Generally relates to exit velocity and launch angle data for prospects. A lot of pro teams look at maximum exit velocity when trying to get a grasp on a hitter’s raw power/capacity to hit the ball hard. Mechanical Terminology — Hip hinge is the movement for pitchers and hitters in which they drop their hips (like one would while doing a deadlift or a squat). Separation is creating a stretch between the upper and lower body, and beneficial for both hitters and pitchers when trying to generate rotational acceleration. Lateral tilt is how the shoulders are lined up at contact for a hitter (lead shoulder should be leveraged above back shoulder). Arm raise/timing relates to a pitcher’s arm when their foot reaches foot strike — ideally the arm is just getting into an upright position; if it’s late or early there are problems re: energy leakage, potential injuries, and other inconsistencies. “
  4. https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/6/4/mlb-draft-data-influenced-big-board
  5. He probably was 5 tool in college with his OF play, batting. .439 with 21 HR and 92 rbis and pitching 12-0 record with 1 save and a 1.68 ERA. Had a 96 MPH heater.
  6. Also I read some mention of the possibility of an under slot maneuvering. So they may be interested in the guy that will give them the best deal. Obviously they are picking Tokelson, Martin, or Lacy
  7. I mean, look at our focus on pitching prospects during our last run and see how that worked out for us. Bundy had his best year during our competing period in middle relief. Gausman was up and down. Rodriguez was traded for Miller, and he would've been solid. I think the approach last year was impacted by how thin the organization was up the middle. We were weak on catching, short stop and potential center fielders, and loaded up on pitching in recent drafts. I also think the approach of adding veteran starting pitching when position prospects are ready is the better idea. Two teams to look at with that. The 2017 Astros had Keuchel and McCullers as homegrown talents, and Keuchel came from the previous regime. They traded for Mike Fiers in 2015, acquired and developed Charlie Morton in free agency and traded for Justin Verlander. The Cubs rebuilt using a majority of pitching prospects. When they were ready to compete in 2015, they signed Jon Lester to a big contract while they had cheap positional talent. With the volatility of pitchers out there, I would rather focus the prospects as far as position players go, and sign pitchers who we know have established track records. At least a TORP style pitcher.
  8. I don't think you can call a guy "elite hit" when his career high in BA is .306.
  9. https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lenny-dykstras-reputation-was-so-tarnished-that-he-wasnt-defamed-by-book-judge-rules
  10. Move the mound back 3'. Mandate minimum bat sizes. All media revenues over $50M go into a common pot and distributed by inverse of market size. Local streaming of games for all. Home team gets the choice as to whether today's game is played with a DH or not. MLB split up into three or four geographically-aligned leagues with minimal or no interleague play. Expand to 48 teams over the next 18 years. All nine-inning games are called after 2:30. Large financial bonuses for teams that complete the most full games. The entire balk rule replaced with "you can't stop in the middle of the windup to throw to a base." No more than nine pitchers on a roster (which eliminates the need for the three-batter rule). Teams are limited to 10 minor league transactions in a season, not counting injuries. Eliminate the draft, but institute strict slotting and limits for expenditures on amateur signings based on market size. The Orioles get to spend $20M, the Yanks $1M. Scrap current free agency/service time rules. All players become free agents at 28. The shift is legal forever. All new parks have to have a sum of their LF-LC-CF-RC-RF fence distances greater than 1890 feet. Can be 340-390-430-390-340. Or 300-425-440-425-300. Or whatever, as long as it's greater than 300' down the lines and it adds up to >1890. Implement electronic strikezones. Go back to using the balata ball. Every pickoff throw is a ball on the batter unless the runner is actually picked off.
  11. Today
  12. I found this while researching another thread. LOL Good for a laugh.
  13. 2017: Royce Lewis, Twins School: JSerra Catholic HS (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.) Career WAR: N/A Lewis was a surprise No. 1 pick to some talent evaluators, but he was the top-rated high school prospect in the 2017 Draft thanks to his premier athleticism both at the plate and at the shortstop position.
  14. I'm just glad that there are places in the world where a guy can make a good living playing baseball even if they're in their late 20s and are not quite good enough to be major leaguers. That they have to go to Japan or Korea is a symptom of the broken minor league model. No sports league should be 95% development and 5% winning. When that happens really good players like Mike Wright basically get told to quit because they aren't quite at the top level and are never going to get there. Much of the rest of the world has multiple tiers in sports leagues, and if someone wants to keep playing until they're 40 or 45 they have that option even if they're not at the very highest level.
  15. Handle the PEDs issue, step in and moderate a solution between the owners and the players. Dont let a team trade 5 players for a drug abused over the hill pitcher. Honestly, for the good of the game, is a lot like the movie, Miss Congeniality and each pageant contestant is expect to say "World Peace".
  16. Looking back, I understand it. 1961 was the very first year they played 162 games. It’s not like today when they’ve been doing it for almost 50 years.
  17. LA2

    Mike Wright

    Sometimes it's good to be humbled. Maybe he'll be back in the MLB in a few years with his new body and control.
  18. Its weird watching Mike Wright pitch a decent game in the KBO. He slimmed down and has control. So weird. It's like all he was was KBO level. Lol.
  19. Just talking about the general trend that analytic teams realize that arms are more risky, so they're ranking gets slightly dinged to compensate for that. He also didn't pick a pitcher until the 8th round last year. Things like on base skills are harder to mold using modern training, places like driveline are much more effective for pitchers.
  20. I guess so. If they want to have Mize paired with Lacy/Hancock, it's hard to argue with. Tork does seem to be the consensus #1 pick though. I am curious when the last time there was a player previously thought to be the consensus #1 pick who didn't go first overall.
  21. Saw a mock draft with us taking Martin and left drafting pitcher Nick Swiney at 30 https://prospects365.com/2020/05/25/ray-butlers-2020-mlb-mock-draft/
  22. The Frobster beat me to posting the Melewski interview by 13 minutes. The article mentions the Os in on quality international prospects that we knew about including Samuel Basallo and Maikol Hernandez and one that I am not sure I have seen mentioned with the Os here - Wilmer Feliciano who will get a signing bonus just under $500k and has big left-handed power. A reminder that none of these guys are signed, just apparently committed or agreed to the Os until they are signed. It seems like a very strong group of elite prospects given how late our current FO was to the game of signing this upcoming J2 class. The payoff from these guys is likely years away, but I think there is a chance last year's class and this year's class should start impacting our top 30 prospects entering 2021. How optimistic is it to think predict our next international signing to reach our top 10 would be by 2022?
  23. Don’t have a subscription, but here’s an interview the author, Ben Badler, gave to Steve Melewski. https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/06/baseball-americas-ben-badler-on-os-international-effort-video.html At the end of the video, Badler speculates that the next CBA will create an international draft. He thinks the players will posture about and then “maybe they’ll trade it for a few extra inches of legroom on the bus.” LOL!
  24. Bad quality vid but its the only one that I found that shows Frohwirth's side of it. Back in that era Martinez grabs some pine 9 out of 10 times with that pitch.
  25. It is not supposed to be a weak draft overall. It’s just that there aren’t 3-5 obviously elite talents at the very top. But there will probably be very good talent at 30/39 compared to a typical year.
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