2018 25th Round (745) Nick Horvath - CF - Florida

[weams]

5' 10 201lbs DOB: 07/13/96

 

 

Luke's Take: Not sure whether he's being picked as a LHP or CF, he's listed as a LHP on the MLB draft track, but it's been reported differently elsewhere. As a CF, Horvath is known for his defense despite lacking plus speed.  He is a polished defender with a fairly strong, accurate arm. At the plate, he improved significantly as a Senior, but struggles against premium velocity. Most likely a defense-first Org guy. As a LHP, he's a command over stuff reliever who likely doesn't have enough raw stuff to succeed in pro ball.

[weams]

 

[Frobby]

Duke used to have a basketball player named Nick Horvath, but he’s not quite old enough to be the father.    

[Chito]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Duke used to have a basketball player named Nick Horvath, but he’s not quite old enough to be the father.    

That name was so familiar, but I couldn't place it.

Also, did we draft this Nick Horvath as a pitcher?

[weams]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Duke used to have a basketball player named Nick Horvath, but he’s not quite old enough to be the father.    

Our local sports writer up here has that name. I see him at the polling places on election days. He always had the betting lines. 

[weams]

29 minutes ago, Chito said:

That name was so familiar, but I couldn't place it.

Also, did we draft this Nick Horvath as a pitcher?

No as a center fielder. 

[bobmc]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Duke used to have a basketball player named Nick Horvath, but he’s not quite old enough to be the father.    

Could this Nicky be a new Frobby fave?  Lefty OF who made a really nice snatch of that homer-to-be?

[bobmc]

On 6/6/2018 at 10:10 PM, bobmc said:

Could this Nicky be a new Frobby fave?  Lefty OF who made a really nice snatch of that homer-to-be?

@Luke-OH Any chance we go after this guy now that Gators are done?  We need another Nicky!    Both Markakis and Delmonico are gone....

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, bobmc said:

@Luke-OH Any chance we go after this guy now that Gators are done?  We need another Nicky!    Both Markakis and Delmonico are gone....

I’d guess he signs, the odds are good IMO.

[Luke-OH]

@bobmc

Looks like he signed. No announcement, but he’s in uniform!

 

[bobmc]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

@bobmc

Looks like he signed. No announcement, but he’s in uniform!

 

@Frobby Nicky returns!  Like Markakis he is a pitcher and an OF.  Let's hope he has as stellar a career.  Thanks @Luke-OH !

[RPIgator26]

Its off to a decent start and having watched Nick Horvath some over the last few years and then before that at Santa Fe CC, and even before that where he played in a lineup that featured Pavin Smith (Dbacks 1st round pick in 2017) and JJ Schwarz (another UF player that was drafted 3 times in the last 4+ years) I cannot disagree with Luke's take - other than to add its maybe a bit cynical in that few hitters do not struggle with true "premium velocity" of 94+ where that was what the SEC delivers every weekend.  What Luke probably fails to mention is that per the MLB tracker, the Orioles seem not afraid to look for round 11-40 "bargains" and given what they have invested in Nick, it would be unreasonable to expect the speed of a Buddy Reed, the pure stuff of an AJ Puk, or the bat on fastballs of a Pete Alonzo at round 25 for any price let alone $2,500.00. What the  Orioles did get was a player that makes few metal or physical errors in a game dominated by them, and a player that has while at UF adapted to the Premium D1 demands of situational baseball - like at UF where initially opportunity was as a relief pitcher in 2016 and 2017 and then  a late inning defender/pinch hitter as needed and then in 2018 where an everyday CF and bottom of the order hitter was what the coach deemed the team needed. His track record might not be long, but with some additional time and development you never know what good things might happen for Nick. I'm going to watch and see what happens.

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, RPIgator26 said:

Its off to a decent start and having watched Nick Horvath some over the last few years and then before that at Santa Fe CC, and even before that where he played in a lineup that featured Pavin Smith (Dbacks 1st round pick in 2017) and JJ Schwarz (another UF player that was drafted 3 times in the last 4+ years) I cannot disagree with Luke's take - other than to add its maybe a bit cynical in that few hitters do not struggle with true "premium velocity" of 94+ where that was what the SEC delivers every weekend.  What Luke probably fails to mention is that per the MLB tracker, the Orioles seem not afraid to look for round 11-40 "bargains" and given what they have invested in Nick, it would be unreasonable to expect the speed of a Buddy Reed, the pure stuff of an AJ Puk, or the bat on fastballs of a Pete Alonzo at round 25 for any price let alone $2,500.00. What the  Orioles did get was a player that makes few metal or physical errors in a game dominated by them, and a player that has while at UF adapted to the Premium D1 demands of situational baseball - like at UF where initially opportunity was as a relief pitcher in 2016 and 2017 and then  a late inning defender/pinch hitter as needed and then in 2018 where an everyday CF and bottom of the order hitter was what the coach deemed the team needed. His track record might not be long, but with some additional time and development you never know what good things might happen for Nick. I'm going to watch and see what happens.

Good post, and by no means was I writing off Horvath’s chances at success in pro ball. You are correct, big tools usually aren’t available late in the draft unless it’s a player with little to no baseball skill to go along with the tools.

Horvath is on the other end of the spectrum like I mentioned, and you  also note. He is highly skilled, but not toolsy. That’s not a insult, just an awareness of reality. 

Yes, being able to handle premium velocity isn’t particularly common, but it is a common trait among players who make it to the majors. A flat 100 with limited breaking ball quality to keep hitters honest, gets hammered in the majors.

I obviously want Horvath to succeed and I think he’s a good value for a 25th round pick, but to not be a bit cynical about a 25th round pick would likely be poor analysis.

[RPIgator26]

Your analysis is anything but poor, just maybe needed explanation. Horvath’s .268 average in 2018 was not too far out of line with the average SEC center-fielder, but the .221 in conference number is maybe indicative of where your suspicion comes from. Most top picks do not have a 50 point drop without looking at the differences between the two numbers, and in-conference pitching velocity is an SEC trait that makes it a tough pitching division (as compared to the BIG 10 for example). That might be the math that provides the justification for the velocity concern. Getting more specific though , Horvath’s relatively few D1 at bats (as compared to other Oriole collegiate draft picks) and a hitting past at JC that’s less of an insight to any trend but rather more an indicator that hitting development was ongoing during collegiate play, would be a pragmatic and far more neutral view of risks to his continued success.  I’d also argue that organizationally, that having spent 1.8 million this year for a player with a swing that needs to be rebuilt (in your opinion no less) is riskier for a struggling MLB franchise than spending 2.5k for a player that basically has no hitting history at all and is taken at a location in the draft where the organization has risked less in total money than the amount local Gator fans (and the Gator nation is everywhere) will spend at Ironbirds games to see a favorite ex gator play some MiLB ball.