Tony-OH

I would feel better if the stats showed that, but he hit better in the first half than in the second half of the season. I could not find a split for AO/GO.

With Elias coming from an analytical background, I really can't see this being his thought process. It's rare to find a guy who hits a ground ball two times to every one time he hits a flyball/linedrive. It's even more rare for that guy to have success in the major leagues unless he's Billy Hamilton fast. Now, if Martin's defense is as good as advertised, and the Orioles think he can hit enough to provide value, then I understand, but no one's defense is going to overcome a .550 OPS in this offensive minded MLB anymore, so I doubt they are thinking "who cares" about the defense. I said in another thread before the draft that Martin made sense if the Orioles think he can become an everyday SS, something the A's obviously did not think of they would not have left him off their 40-man.

Not sure why this discussion is being buried in another thread, but this deserves it's own thread. Please, please start new threads about big moves and not bury it in a previous discussion. Thanks. As for me, I'm a little surprised just because of his extreme ground ball rate. I'm guessing Elias thinks he can teach Martin a new bat path that will enable him to lift the ball more. Saying all that, it will be interesting to see if Martin's defense is as good as advertised.

At worse Ruiz is now competition for Nunez at 3B. Competition is good and although I'm not sold on either of these guys as a long term solution at 3B, these are the kinds of guys you want to have in your organization because they have upside and just need time to play at the major league level in order to really determine their worth.

Haha, I doubt that very much.

Actually, looking at his analytics numbers, he actually grades out pretty well with quality of pitches. His biggest issue was his well below average ability to pitch around the edge of the zone and the fact he only threw his slider for a strike 42% of the time. Basically the analytics confirmed my scouting of him that his stuff din't drop off, but rather his command was his issue last year.

My only surprise is that Hart wasn't cut before him. Saying that, Mesinger is a dime a dozen right handed middle reliever. I'm more surprised the Cardinals claimed him more than the orioles's DFAing him. Shake a minor league tree and ten Meinsinger's fall out.

My computer died that had all my old lists, but I have them backed up on some external harddrive but don't really have the time to go an find them. I did find this though: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2009/12/composite-orioles-top-10.html

That's tough to say because each list can be different. Also, what is your definition of solid? We have five players with Current most likely grades of 55 or higher. I would say that's more than in the past and was helped out by the Machado trade that netted Kremer and Diaz. Kremer could be the guy who ends making the quickest impact at the major level among the top 10. It would not surprise me if he is pitching in the rotation by mid-season next year.

Sounds good, will do.

I thought it would be a good idea to keep a timeline of major actions of new GM Mike Elias in one thread for quick viewing. I will sticky this and we'll put the moves with dates so we can look at timeline in the future as he rebuilds the franchise. Please help us keep this up to date by replying in this thread with moves. 2018 Nov 16 - Orioles Hire Mike Elias Nov 20 - Designated SS Engelb Vielma for assignment. - Selected the contract of RHP Dillon Tate from Bowie Baysox. Nov 21 - Hired Sig Mejdal as Assistant GM, Analytics Nov 24 - Signed infielder Zach Vincej to a minor league contract - Signed infielder-outfielder Chris Bostick to a minor league contract Nov 27 - Scouting Director Gary Rasich not retained - Hired Chris Holt (Former: Astros’ assistant pitching coordinator) to be Minor League Pitching Coordinator. Nov 28 - Signed right-handed reliever Josh Lucus to minor league deal Nov 30 - Director of Player Development Brian Graham not retained - Tim Beckham and Caleb Joseph are non-tendered. Dec 13 - Selected Oakland SS Richie Martin in Rule 5 Draft Dec 13 - Traded with Philadelphia for SS Drew Jackson (subject to rule 5 restrictions) Dec 14 - Hired Brandon Hyde as Manager (finally official) Dec 27 - Jose Flores for MLB coaching staff Dec 27 - Tim Cossins hired for unspecified coaching position Jan 2 - Hired Koby Perez Senior Director of International Scouting January 4, 2019 Selected Austin Brice off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. January 5, 2019 Sold Breyvic Valera to the San Francisco Giants. January 8, 2019 Signed Carlos Perez as a free agent. January 11, 2019 Signed Gregory Infante as a free agent. Selected Hanser Alberto off waivers from the New York Yankees. January 28, 2019 Selected Jack Reinheimer off waivers from the Texas Rangers. DFA'd Brice. February 4, 2019 Austin Brice selected by the Miami Marlins off waivers. February 7, 2019 Signed Nate Karns as a free agent. DFA'd Reinheimer (Passed through waivers and assigned to Norfolk). February 11, 2019 Signed OF Eric Young Jr. as a free agent to a minor league coantract. February 16, 2019 Signed SS Alcides Escobar as a free agent to a minor league contract. February 16, 2019 Claimed LHP Josh Osich off waivers. DFA'd Hanser Alberto. (Conversation Thread) February 22, 2019 Hanser Alberto selected by the San Francisco Giants off waivers. March 1, 2019 Selected Hanser Alberto off waivers from the San Francisco Giants. March 7, 2019 Donnie Hart selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers off waivers.

If it can help him "guess" better than perhaps that will help, but good catchers will call a game well enough to pitch away from trends at times, especially if he thinks a hitter is a guess hitter or a guy going off the book. It will be interesting to watch if/how the analytics help certain hitters next year. I'm as interested in anyone but I don't think analytics is some magic pill that will make all hitters better.

You should clarify that statement. YOU can't say or don't want to say that. I will. His development or production has nothing to do with another player. I got a lot of looks of Sisco last year and I see a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to be successful in the major leagues and doesn't have a good enough glove to offset that lack of power and contact rate. I could be wrong, and the Orioles fan inside of me would like to be wrong, but I'm giving you my honest scouting take. I realize some people would like to just give guys chance after chance and if I saw upside I would as well, but let me ask you and anyone else who doesn't agree, what is Sisco's carrying tool in the major leagues? Through AA it was the ability hit for average and get on base, but he was always subpar defensively, to the point that some never thought he would be able to catch effectively in the major leagues. He'll get into a ball once in awhile, but he was never a consistent power threat. Throughout the minors he's been a liability at throwing guys out to the point that teams were putting a ton of pressure on the pitchers. Besides hope, what tells you he can be a successful major league catcher/hitter? Can you give me a guy who started off his career with a strikeout rate close to Sisco with Sisco's lack of power and became a good major league hitter? I'm certainly willing to be proved wrong, but in my research, Sisco had one of the worse WHIF rates on strikes. That's a real bad sign as well. So he's not just chasing bad pitches, but wasn't able to make contact with pitches in the zone. Trust me, it's not like I want Sisco to fail or that I'm judging him off one bad season. I've done a lot of statistical analysis as well as used my own scouting eye to make these conclusions. Saying that, I'm fine if people disagree or think he should be run out there as the starter next year. Me, I'm not going to releases him because there is no reason to at this point and I'd rather give him a chance to make some adjustments with the swing path theory and using analytics to see if it helps first, but I'd rather see him in hit and continual to improve defensively at Norfolk rather than in Baltimore. Hopefully with Elias, he will force players to kick that major league door down rather than be just given jobs because there is no one else.

I understand the thought process that the team has "nothing to lose," but I just see a player that was exposed by upper level and especially major league pitching. It happens. He won't be the first guy to hit pretty well through to AA then struggle. I have a hard time getting past that strikeout rate with no power. If he was a big power guy and had an awful K rate you may be able to think, "Well, at least we'll get some pop" in the Rob Deer mold, but as I pointed out, if you take away his HBP, which I don't believe is a real skill, his OBP percentage drops a decent amount. However, if the Orioles choose to run him out there to see what he can do again, I guess they don't have a ton to lose other than a good veteran catcher to work with their pitchers. The problem is, it's hard to live with that bat when the defense is not a positive either. As one scout I know likes to point out about certain catchers, I could live with the bat if he caught better, or live with the defense if he hit better, but he doesn't do either well enough.

He's been basically overmatched since AA. A high K rate with little power is a classic example of a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to hit at the major league level. Chance Sisco AAA Slash: .260/.341./391/.733, 12 HR, and a disturbing 50 BB-140 K (3.98 PA/K) ratio in 557 PAs. MAJ Slash: .197/.306/.320/.626, 2 HR, and a disturbing 16 BB-73 K (2.82 PA/K) ratio in 206 PAs. Above AA, Sisco's best offensive attribute is his ability to get HBP. He's been hit 25 times which has kept his OBP respectable. If he was a good defensive catcher you might live with him as a backup to a good right-handed hitting catcher since he'll walk a little bit, but he's well belows average dfenively regardless of what his DWAR suggests. He's not a good game caller (though he wasn't Matt Wieters bad) and once the slow guys stopped running on him, he couldn't throw anyone out. If he was eligible, he would not have been in my top 30 prospects anymore. Unfortunately, he's been exposed at the highest levels and has been found to be lacking. He's actually a good case for me to evaluate bat speed better. I didn't see him a ton in the minors and I did have some scouts tell me they weren't excited over his bat speed, but I let his numbers speak more than the scouts. I once had a scout tell me after his first year in Delmarva that he was Steve Clevenger. Stats Normalized over 162 games Steve Clevenger - .227/.284/.324/.608 29 2B, 4 HR, 35 BB, 86K in 497 PAs Chance Sisco - .197/.306/.320/.626 10 2B, 9 HR, 36 BB, 162K in 457 PAs, 27 HBP... Take away the 26 HBP and Sisco's normalized OBP is .242. So while I understand the thought that the Orioles should give young players a chance, the Orioles need to also evaluate the current group and decide which ones are failed prospects and not waste time. Now saying all that, if Elias has some miracle cure with analytics that can help Sisco (I doubt it can fix his lack of bat speed) then be my guest, give him some more PAs, but as I showed in a post last year, if Sisco ends up a productive major league hitters he will be the first one to ever start off his career with that strikeout rate and lack of power. Honestly, it makes some sense in my mind to keep a veteran catcher around to help evaluate the young pitchers but if the Orioles want to go in another direction than Joseph, it's understandable after the year he just had. Me personally, I'd rather have Joseph behind the plate than Sisco with a young staff.

I don't know how he can't already be a top 50 prospect already, but I don't follow other systems. I just think it's gotta be hard pressed to find 50 better prospects in baseball than Hall.

I don't have the numbers, but I would take a guess and say around 10-20%. A ceiling is if everything goes right for the guy and they really exceed their normal development path. It's a best case scenario mostly accessed on tools and prejectibility.

The trades and last year's draft added 14 players to our top 30 so that alone shows the improvement. I'm not a big Dietz guy so I'll let Luke see where he thinks he would fit on last year's list. Saying all that, I think the system is definitely improved from last year where more guys with better ceilings than in year's past.

All 30 prospects are complete now. A few profiles will need to be updated by tonight, but for the most part they are finished. Thanks to Luke Siler for his support in the process and for writing some of the profiles!

Both are very raw players though Encarnacion has some plus tools to work from and looks the part. Encarnacion has the highest ceiling of anyone outside of the top 20, but that plate discipline is scary at such a low level.

It's that time of year once again where we give you an in-depth view of the Orioles system. We will be doing our top 30 once again, but this year we will give you a new grading system so you can quickly see where the player is currently in development, where they will most likely end up, and their ceiling if everything breaks for them. This will help you determine the closeness of the player to the big leagues as well as the toolsy guys with bigger ceilings but who are farther away. We developed this list after doing our own scouting, analyzing statistics, and after analyzing comments from players development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization. As with last year, I worked in collaboration with Luke Siler to develop the list. Our official list listed here is the collaborative result of our analysis. New Grading System: Grade Hitters Starters Relievers 80 HOFer HOFer #1 75 Top 1-2 Top 1-2 #1 70 Top 5 Top 5 #1 65 All-Star All-Star #1-#2 60 Plus #2-#3 Elite Closer All-Star 55 Above AVG #3-#4 Mid-Closer 50 AVG Regular #4-#5 Low-Closer/Elite Setup 45 Platoon/Utilty #5-Swingman Setup 40 Bench Up/Down Middle/Long relief 35 Up/Down Emergency Up/Down 30 Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) 25 Org (AA) Org (AA) Org (AA) 20 Org (A Ball ) Org (A Ball) Org (A Ball) We will release the list 6-10 (Tue 11/6), then 1-5 (Thur 11/8), 10-15 (Tue 11/13), 16-20 (Thur 11/15), 21-30 Tue (11/20). 11/19) Rank Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade 1 DL Hall – LHP 25 60 65 2 Grayson Rodriguez – RHP 20 60 60 3 Ryan Mountcastle – 3B 40 55 60 4 Dean Kremer- RHP 45 55 60 5 Yusniel Diaz – OF 40 55 60 6 Austin Hays – OF 40 50 55 7 Hunter Harvey – RHP 35 50 60 8 Zac Lowther – LHP 35 50 55 9 Blaine Knight – RHP 25 50 55 10 Brenan Hanifee – RHP 25 50 55 11 Keegan Akin – LHP 40 50 50 12 Luis Ortiz – RHP 40 45 50 13 Ryan McKenna – OF 35 45 50 14 Branden Kline – RHP 40 45 55 15 Drew Rom – LHP 20 45 55 16 Zach Pop 40 45 50 17 Dillon Tate 40 45 50 18 Rylan Bannon 35 45 50 19 Adam Hall 20 45 50 20 Michael Baumann 25 45 50 21 Alex Wells 25 45 50 22 Jean Carlos Encarnacion 20 45 55 23 Cadyn Grenier 20 45 50 24 DJ Stewart 45 45 45 25 Jean Carmona 20 45 50 26 Cody Carroll 40 40 45 27 Brett Cumberland 30 40 45 28 John Means 40 40 45 29 Cameron Bishop 20 40 45 30 Matthias Dietz 20 40 50 2017 Top Prospect List

That's the really the key for me. The analytics are not kind to a guy like Jones going forward. So many teams are using those analytics going forward which is why guys like Cashner and Cobb were still around in March for the Orioles.

I would be in shock if Jones gets anything close to that. I'm not even sure Jones gets the 2/$22 Heyman suggested without some heavy incentives being reached.

Honestly, I'd move him to the pen for a year and use him as a 2-3 inning guy in the minors every couple games and see if you can keep him healthy. Plus, not sure with his delivery that the pen is not a better place for him long term anyways.