Pat Kelly

Brewerrs look like an extremely high baseball IQ and well coached team. Os need to pay attention. They are getting their collective teeth kicked in by the Milwaukee Bullies.

Solid analysis by Jon Meoli that addresses much of what we are discussing. A few interesting takeaways: “As the Orioles lost the fourth of their five games in which a lefty started for their opponent Sunday, that approach is looking wobbly. Their offense is scuffling at a time when their Triple-A affiliate enjoyed as eye-popping an offensive week as a club could have.” From a rival scout: Kjerstad “had the most comfortable at-bats I’ve ever seen in my life…impressed with the consistent quality of Stowers’ contact, Norby’s revamped offensive game and with Mayo’s power profile.” Holiday has a 1.085 OPS driven by 10 walks. “At just 20 years old, he takes the best at-bats in all the minors.” He also noted that Holliday didn’t put a foot wrong at second base, positing he’d be at least a plus defender there with the potential to play the position well immediately. He has only eight plate appearances against lefties, with a 1.375 OPS thanks to his opening day home run off one, and has not struck out against a lefty, either. Just three of the eight balls he’s put in play against lefties have been hit hard though.

If the goal is to get into the playoffs vs win the Division then I guess the Os will be fine. On the ML team perhaps we can agree there are six first division staters (Adley, Gunnar, Ryan, Santander, Mullins, O’Hearn (DH)). We are arguably missing an everyday RF, 2B (if we consider JW the answer at 3B) and RH DH. We have two emerging four/five tool WIP prospects (Westburg, Cowser) and five single skill /quasi limited players (Hays, Mateo, Urias, Kemp, McCann). There are holes on ML team, not to mention needs in the BP. My issue is that I am not clear on Elias’ strategy or plan to solve this given the presence of five ready/close to ready top /elite players in Norfolk. Is he willing to roll the dice and lose more games then projected or is everything meeting the plan?

It’s about having your best 26. The AAA top 5 are all prospects with upside who are off to not just good offensive starts but eye-popping starts - Hyde acknowledged he’s never seen it before. So yes 100% no guarantee that AAA hitters mash ML pitching but it’s not like there are a bevy of elite hitters blocking them. Not expecting Hays, Mateo, Urias, Kemp to become elite hitters. More importantly, not seeing the Os offense as currently constructed as elite so unclear on what the plan is. If it’s shutdown BP, great defense and starting pitching, win a bunch of low scoring games not expecting things to work like last year.

If the Orioles lose the division by a few games or continue to not hit then this has been a gross miscalculation by Elias. No reason to hoard a bunch of bats in NFLK and leave the major league team short. Os are not going to win a bunch of 2-1 games with this BP and a spectacular at times but unsteady defense. Os pitching and defense is better than the Yankees but the Yanks are hitting their way to victory. Os showed that elite hitting in Spring Training. It’s there but in the minors. Elias this is your strategy so hope you know what you are doing.

It’s interesting with Kjerstad in many ways as the clamor for a call-up should be around him as much as Holiday. There is really no AAA development left for Heston, he belongs in ML and would upgrade the major league team. Continue to be confused why Elias is favoring several marginal players for the major league roster, players that cost more and project worse than the major league talent at Norfolk.

On MLB Network just now.

So the “best GM in basebal” sent half of his good hitters to AAA to enable playing time for ???

This is the point. Play him 4-5 times per week, primarily against LHP, provides Mullins the occasional day of in CF, late inning def replacement. He is a valuyable player to have if used effectively. He is not an everyday starting LF but doesn't need to be.

Sometimes it seems like Hyde does what he wants with the lineup. Not sure any computer spits out Hays is the best option most nights. Hyde and Elias in pre-game meet.

A Norby-Cowser platoon in LF might be the way to go. Would hit for more power than Hays, worse in the field. Hays is what he is at this point and flipping him for BP/Pitching would be unpopular but make sense. Holiday replaces Kemp when he is deemed ready. Bottom line is the roster is too good to carry marginal players. Would feel completely differently if Elias were acquiring vets that are difference makers vs replacement level good vibe guys.

It's early and this is more of an impression than data driven analysis, but curious to see how the O's develop RHH which always seems more of an issue when facing LHP. Today's game against Detmers exposes some of this. Best RHH vs LHP seems to be trending to a Ryan - Adley bake-off. Santander is likely next, followed by hot streak versions of Mateo and Hays (Hays looks terrible right now). Urias and McCann are back-ups at best for most contenders. Most of the org's elite talent is LH. Which is why Westburg and Mayo are key, they both need to become at least elite against LHP. Don't see Hays getting better - more likely to get worse, same for Mateo. It also seems most of the RHH - Urias, Mateo, Hays, McCann - are here primarily for defense. There are no other impact RHH in the organization given the draft emphasis on LHH. Maybe this doesn't matter, but fail to understand the obsession with LH IFs and OFs at the expense of any real development of right handed power. Be curious to see if this is addressed.

Jackson about to unleash hellfire on AAA. https://x.com/mlb/status/1773847933957349751?s=42&t=3aR9BJFT6ST3sW1Yj86gKw

Agree subjectively Mancini feels like a better option than Nevin but objectively speaking at this stage (based on Mancini’s recent performance) it’s probably a wash. Sometimes it’s just better for players to go into new environments - living in South Florida is great maybe felt better to Trey.

The real question is why did they even spend the time, the phone calls, checking the payroll, talked to each other about this. I guess they love Nevin as an interim platoon with O’Hearn (until Mayo is ready) and are moving Mountcastle. Part of a Corbin Burnes trade with the Brewers.

Their biggest trade so far of the offseason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/orioles-acquire-tyler-nevin.html

Agree with this. Elias does need to determine how to acquire the quality SP arm that is needed. One of the biggest mistakes you can make (applies to any business) is failure to invest in success and growth. It’s fine to cut costs and limit big swings if the business/product is years away strip things down and start over. This is not where the Os are. Sometimes you need to “overpay” if market demands that - Elias has to prove he can do more than acquire players cheaply, with limited risk. This is the job of the GM - he has done 75-80% exceptionally well arguably better than any other GM. But this is about winning championships now - hopefully he gets it.

Os preparing a “wow offer” for Hader. Ghost of Mark Texiera offseason of magical thinking says hi.

From The Sun.

Matt Blood has added scouting and draft operations to his title. This reads like a corporate release elevating high performers and bumping everyone up one level which equals higher compensation. All of this helps ensure that for at least the 1-2 years this group stays together.

Os lack of pitching depth and experience is being exposed. Firmly believe Elias made the call to roll the dice with what he had to build long term success. Elias would not make the 2014 EROD-Andrew Miller trade or 2023 equivalent to win the ALDS. Losing Bautista made projections worse and unfortunately occurred after the deadline. Had Fuji been lights out things could have played out differently. Replacing Frazier, Urias and Mateo with Holliday(starting 2B), Ortiz (utility /Westburg plays 3B until Mayo is ready) and Cowser (platoons with Hays in LF) makes 2024 team better. Spend FA $ acquiring BP quality (no Bautista), together with dumpster diving and $$ on another SP. No projectable quality pitching in minors that we can count on for next year. Crazy to think a 101 win team is still a WIP but hard to win the postseason with a 5 game ALDS WC round - imagine the Os were playing Texas in a 7 game series now for a trip to WS- need everything to click in post-season and almost no weaknesses- Os not quite there. Hope Elias is right about long term plan cause as a fan this series has been a gut punch.

Never mind Flaherty also not good.

Now Flaherty is in? Wouldn’t it had made more sense starting an inning down 5-2?

Yep this is this point. Foolhardy to assume this would go well in the postseason. Again don’t think Elias wanted to go all in this year - wanted to keep most of his player assets and reconfigure next year. Important for some of the future nuggets to get experience and exposure. In hindsight we will look at next year’s roster and compare to this year and wonder why we ever thought this team had a shot.