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calsmanystances

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  1. New Law mock draft: 17. Baltimore Orioles – Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.) This seems like the floor for the 17-year-old Nimmala, who is one of the draft’s youngest players and has shown strong exit velocities, two things the Orioles definitely value in the draft. I’ve heard them on Bryce Eldridge, another big EV guy, and I think they’d be a player for Brock Wilken if those high school bats were gone. As usual, no word around them taking a pitcher in the first. https://theathletic.com/4620994/2023/06/20/mlb-mock-draft-first-round-changes/
  2. Kiley McDaniel mock: 17. Baltimore Orioles Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison HS (VA) The O's have a type of hitter they like to take (power first, physical skills/defense/contact as supporting traits) and they aren't afraid of the risk to get to a player's upside because they're good at developing that type of hitter. Nimmala fits that archetype and I think he'd stop here (GM Mike Elias was there with me to see Nimmala last month), while Colin Houck, Aidan Miller and Blake Mitchell all also fit. I'm leaning toward Eldridge here, though, as he's both local-ish from the D.C. area and is a bit of a unicorn as a prospect. Eldridge is a 6-foot-7 prep first baseman with 30-homer upside, had some of the best summer contact rates, and has second-round talent on the mound as a backup plan. He's told teams he'd like to play both ways early in his career, which could be useful in the early going if he's like Brendan McKay and teams that have him as a bat simply misevaluated him. That package is enticing enough that I think he'll land in the teens for a club with a strong development plan. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37748894/2023-mlb-mock-draft-10-kiley-mcdaniel-first-round-projection
  3. Jayson Stark had an interesting article on the rule changes. Worth a full read. Given the middle IF prospects we have near the big leagues, I thought this part was interesting: https://theathletic.com/3604919/2022/09/19/mlb-rule-changes-pitch-clock-shift-ban/ This has a chance to dramatically change how teams are built. In what ways, you ask? Here are two: It’s a great time to be an athletic middle infielder. Let’s begin with another Epstein observation from the press conference: What fans want, he said, is having games decided “by diving plays” — not “by whose front office devised the best algorithm” to position all their shifting infielders. So on that note, let’s talk about Mike Moustakas. Nothing personal. He just came up over and over as the poster boy for second basemen you’ll never see again in baseball. “When you’re putting a roster together now, this is going to impact how you view defense. I’ll use Mike Moustakas as an example. He’s played a lot of second base, but he’s not a second baseman, He doesn’t have the foot speed to play second base. But in a shift, he could do it.” — one club exec Well, not anymore. Teams are now going to rethink which positions they can sacrifice defense for offense. And in a world without shifts, second base won’t be one of those positions. I’d love to be an agent for an athletic free-agent middle infielder this winter. That’s going to go well. “When you put together your team now, you may have three positions that are all about defense only – second base, shortstop and center field.” — the same exec It’s time to collect left-handed pull hitters. You know what has changed since these new rules were announced? How front offices watch games every night. They now amuse themselves by tracking all the outs that would be hits with no shift. And all of a sudden, they have a newfound appreciation for left-handed mashers. An executive of one team told me about a left-handed hitting player in his system who might not still be on the 40-man roster — but was kept around because the new shift rule would change his value. Another exec brought up Matt Carpenter, a perfect example of a left-handed pull hitter whose career was almost ended by the shift and now will be looked at in a whole new light. “I think there are guys who are going to add 15 to 20 points to their average because of this. Matt Carpenter is one. Anthony Rizzo is another. Those are guys whose average has just been brutalized by the shift. But now I can see guys like that having much greater value, because they do hit the ball the other way in the air. They just hit most of their groundballs to the right side. And the shift has turned them all into outs.” — one longtime exec So who knows — in future years, players like that could add even more value. And why would that be? Because …
  4. Law's mock has us taking Lee. Not sure I'm a fan of this at 1-1 as it doesn't appear likely Lee will stick at SS (Law is not the only one who holds this opinion) and he didn't walk much prior to this season (18 walks in 55 games and 222 AB's in 2021 and 3 walks in 84 AB's at the Cape in 2021) . His walks did jump this year (2022) to 46 while his K's and avg etc. stayed pretty consistent with 2021 (.342 34 k's in 55 games and 222 AB's in 2021 v. .357 with 28 K's in 235 AB's in 2022). According to D1Baseball, Cal Poly's SOS was 173rd. His numbers are good, but pale in comparison to Rutschman's (1.327 OPS) and Vaughn's (1.243 OPS) who played a tougher schedule in the PAC-12. Are we settling again? 1. Baltimore Orioles: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly Scouting report: Lee has been the best pure hitter among college prospects this year, running a walk-to-strikeout rate over 2.00 all season and punching out well under 10 percent of the time. He controls the zone well and rarely misses fastballs within it, thanks to exceptional hand-eye coordination. His swing is unorthodox and kind of noisy, with some evident effort, but with all that hip and torso rotation he doesn’t always make the high-quality contact teams are looking for in elite prospects. I don’t think Lee is a shortstop long term; he has outstanding hands that will play anywhere on the field, but his ankles are thick and he’s a 40 runner, so the lateral agility that position demands may just be beyond his physical ability. Put him at third base and he should be fine. It’s a bet on the bat, and that a pro department can take this foundation of contact skills and help him get to more consistent contact quality; it’s easier to teach someone to hit the ball harder than it is to teach him to hit the ball in the first place. Lee should be a strong regular who makes some All-Star teams as a third or second baseman, but probably doesn’t project to be a superstar. 2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School (Norcross, Ga.) Scouting report: Jones is the son of Andruw Jones, and his game bears many resemblances to his father’s, not least in the outfield, where Druw is already a plus defender and could work his way up to an elite level with experience. At the plate, he shows 70 power thanks to the strength in his wrists and forearms, with more power possible as he fills out further. And he has shown some bat control against amateur competition, with some understanding of when to pull the ball and when to try to go the other way. He’s a plus runner right now but may lose some of that down the road as he gets bigger, as his father did by age 24-25. The real question on Druw is whether he’ll hit — if he does, he’s a superstar, with 30/30 potential and a glove that should save 10 or more runs a year in center. If he’s more of a 45 bat, he still has plenty of major-league value due to the secondary skills, so he could be worth several WAR per year even with a .300ish on-base percentage. He’d have to be a worse hitter than even that to be something less than a regular, and the unlikeliness of that outcome combined with his very high ceiling make him the top prospect in this year’s draft class.
  5. https://www.mlb.com/news/three-biggest-stories-to-follow-at-the-draft-combine Friday will also bring a BP session featuring several of the best hitters in the 2022 Draft class. This is the spotlight teenagers Termarr Johnson (No. 4) and Cam Collier (No. 12), among others, have been waiting for, and it's an event no fan will want to miss. "Termarr Johnson ... he's probably the best high school hitter to come out of the Draft in, it might be 20 years. Just a great swing -- you're going to see how the ball carries," Callis said. "Cam Collier ... he's still just 17. He's going to take BP. He's one of the best hitters in the Draft, too.
  6. Bowden: https://theathletic.com/3323109/2022/05/20/mlb-trade-deadline-nationals-juan-soto/ What kind of return could the Orioles get for Cedric Mullins? — Thomas G. A lot of teams could use an athletic center fielder such as Mullins. The Marlins are the perfect trade match because they’re desperate for a center fielder. Their farm system is loaded with high-end pitching prospects, and the only way the Orioles will ever contend in the AL East is with pitching and defense. I think Baltimore could get two of Miami’s best pitching prospects plus a corner outfielder if they dealt Mullins.
  7. https://pressboxonline.com/2022/05/11/espns-kiley-mcdaniel-why-druw-jones-is-top-prospect-in-2022-mlb-draft/ But if the Orioles are looking for a potential transformational talent atop the draft, then Jones is probably the way to go, according to McDaniel. “He’s got all those things you want in terms of performance and now skills, but he has the frame and the twitch and athleticism,” McDaniel said on Glenn Clark Radio May 10. “I saw Fernando Tatis Jr. as a 15-year-old. He was just pretty good. And then by about 17, it was like, ‘Oh my gosh, this is a totally different guy,’ because he was long and lanky and projectable and sometimes that stuff can explode. Druw Jones has some of that same stuff. Now, it’s still one in five, one in six that he hits anywhere near those heights, but he’s the only guy that has a chance to be that kind of guy.” The Orioles have had three top-five picks under GM Mike Elias and have taken college position players with all three of those selections: Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad and Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser. Kjerstad and Cowser signed for significantly under-slot bonuses, allowing the Orioles to spread money around later in those drafts. McDaniel said there has been conversation in the industry since the end of last season about whether the Orioles will pivot to a high school kid this time around. McDaniel explained that most superstar-caliber players were either high-end international signings or top-of-the-draft high schoolers. Jones may fit the bill.
  8. Law Top 100 Big Board https://theathletic.com/3291481/2022/05/05/mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-druw-jones/ There’s a clear No. 1 prospect in this class, followed by the next six hitters, with no pitchers in the top 10, something I expect to see mirrored in the actual selections when the draft takes place. I’d put another line after the 21st player, separating the definite first-round talents from the maybes. Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School (Suwanee, Ga.) Andruw Jones’ son is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft class, rising to the top as much because of the high floor he offers for a high school player as his ceiling. He’s a plus defender in center now, with similar feel for the position to his father, gliding to catch fly balls thanks to strong reads off the bat. He is a plus runner with at least 60 raw power, with strength to drive the ball out to center, but his swing can get long and he can try too hard to get to that power on pitches he should just put into play. He does have a solid feel for the strike zone for his age, however, and doesn’t expand the zone on himself when he falls behind. He has All-Star upside and it’s easy to see how he could settle in as a soft regular even if we’re all too high on the hit tool. Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College Collier finished high school early to go to two-year Chipola, probably the best junior college baseball program in the country. As a 17-year-old, he hit .333/.431/.525 despite facing pitchers who were mostly two-to-four years older. He has a plus-plus arm and the athleticism to stay at third base, although ultimately it’s his feel to hit that makes him a top-five talent in this draft. Look for teams that weigh age heavily in their draft models to target him in July. Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays High (Atlanta) Owner of the best pure hit tool in the draft class, Johnson has outstanding feel for the game and, despite a brief hitch at the beginning of his swing, has shown he can hit all kinds of pitching and spray the field with hard line drives. He also brings elite makeup, often acting as an additional coach on his high school team. He’ll move to second base in pro ball, and probably ends up more of a hitter for high averages but with 50 power. Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy For pure tools and upside, Green is probably the top pick among the high school crop, but lacks the present skills of Jones or the hit tool of Johnson. Green is 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, and still has room to fill out, with plus power now and plus-plus speed, with a 30-30 centerfield upside. He has shown a lot more swing and miss than his peers atop the draft board, but playing for IMG Academy this spring he has also faced better competition than any other high school hitter.
  9. There are a number of draft related topics, so I apologize if this was posted in another: Mayo mock draft: https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-mlb-2022 1. Orioles: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (No. 5) The Orioles have saved money by taking a top college bat the past two years, so for this first edition, I’m going that route. They’re heavily scouting the top four high school bats (Druw Jones, Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday) as well as Lee and Jacob Berry on the college hitter side of things. 2. D-backs: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS, Ga. (No. 1) Arizona won’t hesitate to take the best player on the board, much like they did last year when Jordan Lawlar got to them at No. 6. And right now, Jones is that player.
  10. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-top-150-draft-prospects-for-2022 Callis: High school bats occupy the first four spots on MLB Pipeline's newly updated Draft Top 150. Wesleyan HS (Peachtree Corners, Ga.) outfielder Druw Jones, the son of five-time All-Star Andruw Jones, remains at No. 1 with tools reminiscent of his father's and a more consistent offensive approach this spring. He's followed by IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.) outfielder Elijah Green, who has the highest ceiling in this Draft; Mays HS (Atlanta) second baseman Termarr Johnson, the best pure prep hitter in recent memory; and Stillwater (Okla.) HS shortstop Jackson Holliday, who has solid to plus tools across the board. The college position players also have a number of potential candidates for the No. 1 overall choice, which belongs to the Orioles for the first time since they grabbed Rutschman in 2019. Cal Poly second baseman Brooks Lee, Louisiana State third baseman/outfielder Jacob Berry, Texas Tech second baseman Jace Jung and Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada are all advanced hitters if so-so defenders. College bats are the deepest demographic in terms of first-round candidates and could produce half of the top 30 selections. "The hitters will go high," a scouting official with a National League team said. "Druw Jones is the best talent, and then there's a debate. Elijah Green has improved this spring. Termarr Johnson has a great swing. Jackson Holliday is flying up boards. Brooks Lee, Jacob Berry, Jace Jung, Kevin Parada . . . There's a lot to choose from."
  11. From a Rosenthal story in the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3230312/2022/04/06/mlb-2022-season-preview/ A Marlins official, asked Sunday what it will take for the team to break out, replied, “a quality center fielder and a closer.” A few hours later, the Marlins traded for Orioles relievers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott, neither of whom qualifies as an ideal closer, though the payroll-slashing Orioles had planned to use Sulser in that role. The Athletics’ Ramón Laureano, a potentially strong fit in center, will miss the first 27 games while completing his 80-game suspension for testing positive for an anabolic steroid. At the moment, the A’s seem inclined to hold him, leaving the Marlins with Jesus Sánchez playing center for the first time since 2019, when he was in Triple A.
  12. Keith Law Top 30 Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School Yes, that’s Andruw Jones’ son, one of four sons of former major leaguers in this top 30 – they don’t get extra credit for it, but it turns out that genetic inheritance is a thing. Druw Jones has huge power and could play plus defense in center in the majors right now, with some questions about how good his hit tool will be in pro ball but none about his ability to hit right now. He has elite tools, and is taller and more athletic than his father was at the same age, although at 18, Andruw was hitting 25 homers in a year in A-ball. Druw is the best prospect in the class right now, although not so overwhelmingly so that he is a lock to be the first pick. Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS, Atlanta If Johnson were 6-foot-1, he’d be the consensus top guy in the draft class; and even though he’s 5-foot-8, he’s still going to go around the top five picks. A left-handed hitter, he has a fantastic swing and incredible hand-eye coordination. With a 70 hit tool and above-average power, he is probably moving to second base in pro ball but with All-Star upside and the potential to lead the league in batting average. https://theathletic.com/3172139/2022/03/10/mlb-draft-ranking-2022-keith-laws-top-prospects-and-a-rare-question-where-are-the-college-pitchers/
  13. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-four-storylines-to-know-including-kumar-rockers-situation-and-orioles-early-field-for-no-1-pick/ The early field for the No. 1 pick The Orioles "earned" the third No. 1 pick in their franchise history in unusual fashion: by virtue of a tiebreaker. Baltimore and the Arizona Diamondbacks had the same record in both 2021 and 2020, necessitating the league go off 2019 results to dictate the draft order. Whereas the Diamondbacks were a respectable 85-77 back in 2019, the Orioles were a dismal 54-108; ergo, Baltimore will get its choice of the field come July. Who might join Ben McDonald and Adley Rutschman as the Orioles' No. 1 picks? Georgia prep infielder Termarr Johnson would seem to be the favorite based on his offensive ceiling, but it's too early to know for certain. Industry sources who spoke with CBS Sports suggested it's within the realm of possibility that the Orioles become enamored with either James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter or Cal Poly infielder Brooks Lee, ranked No. 2 and No. 3 on the preseason top 50, by decision time. There's also the likelihood that Mike Elias turns to his old portfolio playbook, and drafts the most talented player who will accept the lowest signing bonus as a means of freeing up money for the rest of his class. It's anyone's guess at this point as to whether any of the three names above would fit that billing.
  14. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-prospects-2022-ranking-top-50-players-in-the-class-with-termarr-johnson-at-no-1/ 1. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA) Johnson is a special offensive prospect as well as the beneficiary of a hype blizzard. One veteran scout told CBS Sports that projecting Johnson's hit tool to become an 80 (that is, the highest grade and most important aspect of a player's game) was an easy decision. Other evaluators have dared to debate how Johnson stacks up to Wander Franco when he was 17 years old, and have offered Guardians third baseman José Ramírez as a best-case scenario comparison. (Best case indeed.) Some, if not all of that could prove to be overzealous by the time draft day arrives. Still, Johnson offers a lot to like, including a mature approach and a feel for the barrel that has earned him a reputation for being able to hit any pitch in any count to any field. He came into his strength late last season, and the natural loft on his swing bodes well for his future power production. The biggest downside to his game is his future defensive position, with second base serving as the safest bet. Johnson hasn't yet committed to a college; he won't need to if his desire is to begin his pro career later this year.
  15. I found dates of birth for the top high school players on the USA Baseball website. Termarr Johnson was born June 11, 2004. Druw Jones was born November 28, 2003. Elijah Green was born December 4, 2003. https://www.usabaseball.com/player/termarr-johnson https://www.usabaseball.com/player/druw-jones https://www.usabaseball.com/player/elijah-green
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