geschinger

Agree, but I also hope the Orioles exploit the flawed design of this system. It's not conducive to winning consistently. I'm hoping Elias has a similar approach to what Luhnow took in Hou of refusing to play by those rules. It isn't necessary. Spend on players in their prime, be willing to spend on older but still productive players as long as it is a short-term deal, and walk away from players that require long-term contracts that pay them into their mid to late 30s or even 40s.

2 weeks. The regular season ends Sept 29. If he uses up his rookie status it is going to be based on days on the roster. The 130 ABs might not even be an issue if he was brought up today as there is little chance of Hyde running him out there every day.

I think he'd be crazy not to sign, but he could also have it in mind that he could stay and be picked ~5th next year. He was on many top-10 lists prior to a somewhat disappointing season at UNC.

I would certainly hope that is not the case. I could see it not being the main reason, but if that isn't at least some small part of the calculus in their decision-making, they wouldn't be doing their job. If he didn't have defense to work on, when he was raking earlier I would have loved to have seen him called up. If he hit, stay up (give up rookie status), if he struggled get 2023 Cowser treatment and go back down. But the closer we get to the 45 day mark, it makes less and less sense not to wait for it if every other hurdle is crossed.

Not sure why this is a big deal. We're only talking what, maybe 2 weeks to keep rookie status? It makes sense for the team to keep the possibility open for the additional Rookie of the Year draft capital and doesn't take away Mayo's opportunity of doubling his compensation next year by winning RoY.

In the context of the market (looking at returns for rentals like Kikuchi) - I like the deal. I see Rogers as someone adding SP depth as a 4 or 5 this year but upside for 2025 and 2026. The Orioles have a decent track record at improving the pitchers they've acquired. Even if they don't get more out of Rogers going forward, a serviceable back end LHP has value. I like Norby and Stowers but we need to be realistic - both have already had 1,000+ ABs in AAA and neither could earn a spot. I'm happy they can be given an opportunity elsewhere - giving them each another couple hundred ABs in Norfolk benefits no one.

It's not just tv hits like the one on MLB Network comparing the two. I was a lot less happy to see a comparison between Soto and GH when it is Scott Boras doing it:

As long as he keeps hosting his show on Bloomberg, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to be asked about the Orioles. I can't think of many owners who have as public a profile as he does outside of Mark Cuban.

No idea if accurate or not but on podcast I listened to recently David Samon (former Marlins Presiden) and John Skipper (former ESPN President) were arguing buying the O's was a bad investment for Angelos. They were discussing if there should be concern about the low sale price and that Angelos would have done significantly better financially if he had put the purchase price into the S&P 500 instead of buying the Orioles.

His death was not the trigger for the payroll dump and running afoul of the debt service requirements. Although his health was almost certainly why they went all-in as much as they did. I don't think they are a good example of what can be done in a given market if you engage your fans in a way that communicates we are invested and doing all we can to win. The revenue from the attendance increase didn't come anywhere close to covering their increased spending.

I'm not sure the Padres are a great example. They've had to dump ~50m in payroll this offseason to get in line with MLB's debt service rules.

My guess if Elias was allowed to do what wanted is that eventually, payroll would settle in at a ~$150-$160m range in today's dollars.

Somehow, I don't see them or any of the streaming services getting into the bidding for a team like the Seattle Mariners' non-nationally broadcast schedule.

Escalation is a lot less sure than it was a few years ago with the implosion of regional sports networks revenues. Teams could be in for a rude awakening as existing contracts expire.

I know it's necessary, but I really dislike that many options. It makes practical roster construction difficult for a team w/o unlimited payroll. You only have to account for that extra 150m if he's a disappointment and not worthy of having on the roster.