Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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17 hours ago, wildcard said:
Coulombe and Webb will also be in the pen. McDermott, Young, Povich and Rogers all have options and don't have to be on the team on OD. O's have used 32 pitchers in 2024. All these pitchers will probably see time with the O's in 2025.
One of Elias tasks over the winter is to stock AAA with talent.
I get all of that, sure. But they need pen guys on the active roster who have options so they can send them down and bring others up. No? Unless you want to DFA people. I am not sure that both Webb and Coulombe will be back.
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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:
You are probably right. Also the bullpen looks a lot better with Bautista coming back. It's a tally been solid since we demoted Kimbrel and picked up Seranthony. Bautista, Cano, Seranthony is solid along with Cionel, Akin, and maybe Soto. Might not need much more than that.
You always need shuttle guys. Ideally, I would think they’d like to have 2-3 spots they can interchange between 5-6 guys. That allows them to maybe get some younger arms in there, like McDermott and the others we mentioned already.
Bautista, if he is back to his old form, Seranthony, Cano, Soto (who I think may just surprise some people), while Cionel and Akin are not sure things. Either could be moved. They should make some moves there, IMO. Cionel has not really improved as much as I had hoped. Akin has had a very good year. Are they ARB eligible this year?
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Just now, Aristotelian said:
I guess you are weighing the roster spot versus the risk of them being taken. Even though the risk is low, it seems like they have enough AA experience that they could be part of the shuttle group pretty much right away, in that Vespi/Baker role where they are mostly pitching in AAA. I would just hate to lose anyone who could be remotely considered a pitching prospect.
I gotcha. It depends if they think Pham and Van Loon impactfully can help them in 2025. There is such a gap between AAA and the majors, I don’t know for sure what they’ll do. Just a guess, but I think they’ll look for a little more experience. What they do with McDermott is another thing to watch. He should be in the pen in 2025, IMO. Upgrading the pen flexibility is a real need, maybe they think those two can help there. Maybe an Armbruster as well.
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11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
If we have room, why wouldn't we add Pham and Van Loon just to have available depth in AAA (whether or not they are at risk of being taken)?
When you are in a championship window, roster spots are extremely important. You need room to wiggle, but also usable players for the major league roster in that year.
They could add another, but I don’t think Pham or Van Loon would be lost. If they are, they’re easily replaced. We need shuttle arms, with many of our current group out of options. I wonder if they actually even take a rule 5 pick this year.
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I think Young will be added, and that is it. I like Pham, but no AAA experience makes him unlikely to be taken.
Whatever open spots should be used to upgrade the bullpen and other pitching depth. It is well documented here that we don’t have much beyond raw guys like Strowd and Heid. we lack flexibility and options. This has to change.
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4 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Not sure what you’re talking about. Stowers hit 9 homers and struck out about 13% his junior year at Stanford. In his first pro summer in 55 games he hit just 6 homers and struck out 23%. They proceeded to turn him into a power hitter who struck out 30% of the time.
They drafted Colton Cowser who was more of a contact/hit guy and turned him into a power hitter who strikes out a lot.
Jordan Westburg basically struck out about 21% his last two years in college. They helped him improve his power, not his contact.
Please show us one power hitter with contact issues (Fabian, Horvath) who they turned into a better hitter.
Reference Jordan Westburg, @LookitsPuck posted this earlier in this thread. He literally has one of the highest k rates of any first rounder in the last decade, which is what I said. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Trying to twist things again?
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
Just adding on to this. Baseball Americas draft report actually said that Mayo had solid contact ability. Of course, somehow I’m the bad guy refuting the argument that Westburg, Stowers, or Mayo had big swing and miss issues when drafted and the Orioles fixed them. When someone says Westburg had some of the biggest swing and miss issues in the last 10 years of the draft, is it too much to ask for some actual proof of this?
View Draft Report
Mayo is a big, physical third baseman with a 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame and raw power and arm strength to match it. He also has a solid track record of hitting against some of the better pitchers in the 2020 class, with solid zone recognition and a mature approach at the plate. Mayo has tinkered a bit with his setup. Last summer he shifted his weight significantly back on his right foot, which put him in inconsistent launch positions and hurt his rhythm, but he’s since gone back to a 50-50 weight split. He still is more herky jerky in the box than fluid, and scouts wonder if that will prevent him from consistently tapping into his plus raw power despite a solid eye. He’s an obvious swing-change candidate if he gets to pro ball, but he does have solid contact ability. Defensively, Mayo has one of the strongest arms in the 2020 class, an easy plus cannon with tremendous carry. He’ll need to improve both his footwork and hands to stick at the position though, particularly when major league third basemen are required to handle more ground in a heavily shifted era. His raw tools and physicality are among the loudest in the 2020 prep class, but he could be a tough sign away from Florida. If he gets to campus in Gainesville he could tremendously improve his draft stock by tapping into his power against SEC competition.”
Then there is this from MLBpipeline’s write up in 2022.
Standing 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, Mayo uses a clean swing path and freakish raw strength to flat-out crush the ball. He already makes louder contact than almost any other player in the Orioles system, consistently ranking near the top of their exit velocity readings during 2020 instructional camp, where he showed significant bat speed and light-tower power in batting practice and simulated games. The concerns crop up regarding whether he’ll hit enough to get to that power on a consistent basis. There’s enough swing and miss to his game to potentially drown out Mayo’s loud tools when exposed to professional pitching.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/orioles/
Honeycutt has the most concerns. Sure. But the fellas I named had some issues with swing and miss as well. Perhaps it wasn’t thought of the same in all circles. Guys with big power generally have some swing and miss. It is not a mystery.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
Here’s Westburg’s 2020 draft report in Baseball America. If you’re looking for the part of having the most swing and miss in the last 10 years of the draft, you won’t find it in there.
”500).
View Draft Report
An impressive athlete with plus speed and plus raw power, Westburg has steadily improved as a hitter throughout his college career and had an exceptional summer in the Cape Cod League in 2019. In 25 games with Hyannis, Westburg hit .326/.385/.516 with four home runs and six doubles—enough to rank as the No. 4 prospect in the league. Westburg has been an aggressive hitter at times, with a tendency to strike out at a high clip, but he has made big strides in that department. After whiffing in 25 percent of his plate appearances as a freshman, Westburg cut that to 21 percent as a sophomore and then again to 18 percent through a small, 14-game sample in 2020. Still, scouts think he might wind up as more of a fringe-average hitter because of those concerns. While he does have plus raw power, he’s never been able to fully tap into that during games, and his six home runs in 2019 were the most he’s managed in a season. He’s been more of a doubles and gap hitter, but has a 6-foot-3, 203-pound frame that could add more weight and allow him to take a step forward in that area. Defensively, Westburg has a shot to stick at shortstop. He’s not the elite defender that scouts want to see at the position, but he’s quick, athletic and has a strong enough arm. Depending on the situation around him, he could likely handle the position, but a move to third base or second might be a better long-term fit. If a team thinks he has a chance to be an average hitter, he could go in the back of the first round, with good supplemental tools to fall back on.”
It says in there scouts thought he’d be a fringe average hitter due to contact concerns. And that was against much weaker competition. Good stuff.
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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
I just don't get why Law and other say this. Who is this guy with big time swing and miss that they sprinkled their hitting fairy dust on and became a good major league hitter?
Respectfully, Westburg had one of the highest swing and miss rates of any first round pick in the past decade. Mayo had considerable swing and miss concerns as well as a raw HS kid. Kyle Stowers had considerable swing and miss, still does…lol.
IMO, their reputation is more about their ability to turn out good hitters, overall. I think they have produced more quality hitters than any other organization in the past 4-5 years. Some will miss in every organization. Not every guy is going to be able to make the adjustments they need to make. Fabian is a glaring example, along with the others you pointed out. The criticism is fair, but so are the accolades.
The list of accomplished hitters is long. Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, Holliday, Bradfield, maybe Hernaiz, and so on. They also have helped guys like Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle, Urias and O’Hearn get the most out of their ability.
Some will say it was about their higher picks. However, a lot of high picks do not make it, so it isn’t like a guarantee that any of them would have made it in another situation. The previous Orioles development group would not have had this success, IMO.
I will say some of those hitters they have tutored would have been very good in many environments. However, you cannot just subtract them from the equation. I think their rep is fair.
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3 hours ago, RZNJ said:
I don’t equate highest ceiling with BPA nor do most ML draft rooms, apparently, otherwise Honeycutt and Brecht both would have gone a lot higher. You can argue that he was BPA and the Orioles apparently thought so. That doesn’t make it a fact.
”Honeycutt was, without any doubt, the most talented player at 1-22 in this past draft. It was the right pick, if your philosophy is really BPA.”
So, most talented? Probably. BPA? Debatable.
Ok. I never said highest ceiling, which he may have. Most talented, most tools. For the Orioles, and what they do best, he was the BPA. It’s a good match. This is what I said in the full context. Debate is good.
You and I actually do not disagree on the players we liked this draft, though I thought Honeycutt would be gone by 1-22. I actually did not like the O’Farrell pick, at first. I thought that was just a bit of a reach, but they really like him. The Anderson pick was another one where I scratched my head. I did like the Overn pick a lot. They went college up the middle guys with the top four picks. Philosophically, I get it. They like their data gathered during the college years. I also get the critics of it.
Mike Elias and his staff have great conviction with what they believe. That is admirable to me, even if we think it’s wacky. Too many people think one way, and then act another out of fear of criticism. The criticism is fair. I have said my share this year.
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33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Whether you read him or not, not everyone had Honeycutt as some slam dunk at #22. Yawn.
I said everyone I read or heard. So, that would eliminate Law.
I never said a slam dunk. Let’s not get it twisted, which is what you like to do. A very talented guy with a big issue of swing and miss, absolutely. Maybe even a 35 hit tool, as is. It’s extremely risky. The other four tools are between 60-70. He was, by definition, the BPA, which is what I said. Is he the most likely to make it to the majors and have an impact? No, I don’t think so at all.
The question is, what is causing the swing and miss. I am sure that they did their homework on him and saw what they think they can fix, at least to a point.
It’s a risky pick. But if they didn’t take him, someone would have soon after. A few years from now, if he figures it out, we’d be hearing how the Orioles passed on a great player.
I liked the HS players too. I am a sucker for HS SS and up the middle guys. I wanted Gillen and Lindsey too. Honeycutt was one I thought they might like, and he can develop in a system known for improving hitters with his issues. VH may not have been the best pick when all is said and done, but he was the most toolsy guy available.
I am not defending Elias’ picks here. I see their logic, and I certainly don’t know what they know. But I am definitely not going to take a crap on a pick that has 20 at bats, especially after not playing for two months.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
Keith Law had Honeycutt at #41 on his board.
Well, I don’t read Law, as I will not pay for woke Athletic. So, everyone but Law. Yawn.
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52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I think this is largely the case for them selecting bats at an overwhelming clip in the higher rounds.
Looking at @Tony-OH's most recent prospect power rankings, you're starting to see some pitchers crack the top 15 and some of the DSL kids making noise...most notably Morfe.
I do think there's an element of "let your competitors make the mistakes" when it comes to drafting pitching in the high rounds and I'm wondering if he's banking on pitching success in the system coming from the DSL picks instead of the draft for whatever reason.
I don't think he cares how he gets pitching talent into the system as long as he gets it, whereas we're sitting on this message board screaming at the top of our lungs for us to take pitchers in the draft. The draft isn't the only way to get arms into the system...and while our system has definitely leaned towards hitters over the Elias regime, I'm looking forward to seeing if any of the arms make a leap into the top 10 of rankings this time next year and we suddenly have a gem or two on our hands that we weren't totally aware of on September 2nd, 2024.
But back to VH (I'm close to calling him Van Halen, or Van Honeycutt) I'm not sure how warranted this promotion is. I understand the concerns with the swing and miss to his game, they are warranted. As with any prospect, his first full season in the minors will be interesting to watch. It'll be interesting to watch what they're having him do in the offseason, too.
I think you are correct. It seems clear that they can pick up cheaper arm talent in the international market of DR and Venezuela. The Astros did it, and I think this is where they are going to get the most value on a consistent basis.
That is not to say they may not take a chance on higher round talent in the years to come. I think they want to deal from a position of relative strength. Once the international talent begins to really develop, I can see them cherry-picking a higher round arm here and there. They will be able to afford an occasional gamble like that as things get diversified.
We all want a much more well-rounded system. However, from a value-based investment perspective, can we really find fault with what they have done with their draft capital, philosophically anyway? They can certainly execute better as Tony has said. There will be misses either way. But basing their evaluations on guys that have two or three additional years of data and maturity seems to mitigate a lot of risk.
Van Honeycutt!!!
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5 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:
But how would we know. The Orioles under Elias has never taking a pitcher high enough with that potential to know. I'm concerned when you say they haven't been able to fix a guy with his imense potential. We hear about this so called Orioles Lab ok well let's see them go to work
You make a fair point. I’m not saying you’re wrong at all. They just think it is too risky of an investment. With Honeycutt, they see a guy who can do so many things that he doesn’t need to be an .800 OPS guy to have great value. Mullins hasn’t really hit well since 2022, but he is still a valuable asset.
On the positive side. This regime aided greatly in the development of Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Rodriguez did not have the command issues of DL Hall. Hall still struggles with command, sadly. They did help Bautista become “The Mountain.”
The Orioles look for traits that are undervalued and try to develop them. I’m not sure that philosophy is the way to go. I equate it trying to get Ferrari performance from a Hyundai chassis, but that is the whole analytical approach like Driveline and Tread.
It’s a value-based approach. What value does a pitcher have if they have TJ and miss two seasons? But we need pitchers, good ones. So, spend less on unproven assets, spend more on things that have a higher likelihood of developing in your system. Then trade from your depth. (Eflin was a good trade, Rodger’s…ugh)
I don’t know which approach is better. But this is their path. They stick to it. They are all in with what they believe in.
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Just now, Baseball fandom said:
I often equate Brecht the pitching version to Honeycutt. 2 guys with very high ceilings but very high bust potential. Once you went for Honeycutt I would had said ok I'm rolling the dice on Brecht too.
They don’t have any track record of developing those kind of pitchers. I wanted him too. But the more I thought about it, the more I understood they played to their strengths with O’Farrell.
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30 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:
That's a matter of opinion not aquete to say without a doubt
It was the opinion of every analyst I read and heard. Not just mine. But hey, you do you.
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13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
I didn’t like him either. I was hoping for best HS player on the board or Brody Brecht. I preferred the boom or bust pitcher over the boom or bust position player.
To Tony’s point, do we actually develop boom or bust pitchers well? Picking Honeycutt went to our strength as a system.
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6 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:
I hear you. Can you imagine if they got Caminiti at 22 and Brecht at 31. That would had been sweet.
Brecht is very physically talented, but with serious command issues. Again, we’ll see what comes of him. I would have applauded a high school arm in one of the first two picks. Caminiti would have been great. I doubt we’ll ever see Elias do that though.
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13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Agreed. All other teams passed on this no doubter and there’s no guarantee he gets picked in the next 3-5 picks if we passed. He may have been the most talented athlete at #22 but I’m not sure it’s a slam dunk that he was the best choice at #22.
Time will tell.
Yes, of course the other teams passed on him. The guy tool is raw as you posted. That said, the Orioles are regarded in the industry as an excellent hitter development staff. So, if the hit tool was a “50,” many analysts said he’d have likely been a top 10 pick. Maybe even in the conversation at 1-1. So, it’s a risky pick, sure. But the potential payoff is immense. There was no other position player with the tools of Honeycutt. Every analysis I have read said so anyway. His swing and miss concerns are rough, but so is Brecht’s command issues.
Aaron Judge comes to mind with hit tool concerns. Certainly not the same swing and miss concerns, but quality of contact issues.
We do not know what we have yet. Why so pessimistic? I thought you were fairly positive about him. I guess I was wrong. I know you wanted Brecht over Farrell.
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Honeycutt was, without any doubt, the most talented player at 1-22 in this past draft. It was the right pick, if your philosophy is really BPA. They have a really good hitting development group. It was a right fit. There are zero guarantees that he will make the necessary swing changes. He has to buy-in to what they teach. All indications are that he is coachable, so give them an offseason to help him grow.
I hope no one is giving up on a guy who didn’t have live game at bats for two months after the draft? I mean he has not had any development time yet. Patience with this kind of talent in developing his pitch recognition, and the simplicity of staying inside the ball more while staying connected on the back side will really help him. He gets around the ball a lot. His power to all fields is there, so he should take more advantage of it.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
You always say we’re going to lose someone in the Rule 5 draft and we never do.
You’re right. That should change at some point soon, especially as the better international talent begins to trickle upward.
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https://www.milb.com/player/connor-gillispie-687362
Well, the point Tony made is certainly valid. Their pitcher development is lacking. Connor Gillespie, the lone exception, was drafted by Elias in 2019 and left the organization via the minor league phase of rule 5 last Winter. He made it to MLB with the Guardians this season and recently was optioned to AAA.Beyond Gillespie, who is a reliever now, to Tony’s point, I like most of the guys you pointed out. I’m not as high on Tavera, as it seems like he is always injured. If he can stay healthy, perhaps the command can come on.
After Brandon Young, I think Alex Pham might be next. Strowd may beat Pham to the majors, but Pham should have more impact, though it would likely be in the pen. Strowd’s command won’t allow him to stay, and he’s a shuttle guy.
Pham was impressive to me when I saw him in the Spring. The overall package, the delivery, the demeanor/body language under pressure and ability to stay calm, the confidence, the competitiveness, and the stuff make me like him a lot. If he was a bit taller, he’d be much higher rated. Five average pitches and a low arm slot, which helps the 92-94 hoppy FB velo play up, t96, make him interesting to me. Some of the secondaries have been fringe average, but maybe he only needs three pitches. I’m not worried about his number much this season, as it is probably about development of the secondaries.
Dylan Heid might be the most interesting potential back end reliever of the names listed.
Weston is intriguing, but that arm slot makes me wonder about his durability beyond this year. He’s been really good, though.
I think Bright needs to make significant progress between now and the end of 2025. He has work to do in the lab, and in the gym. He is certainly talented enough.
I only see limited video and read about these guys like most here. It would be nice to see more of them, like Armbruster, become relievers. I think Young and Pham can be back end guys eventually, but both may start out in the pen.
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13 hours ago, Just Regular said:
I think they may kind of Adam Frazier like him - the only red in the Batting section is the Squared-Up readout. He can probably poke a line drive ever so softly.
Pre-parenthood I followed NL prospects more closely, and I remember his draft rep out of high school was a "pure hitter" ala perhaps Holliday or Mountcastle.
Yep, Forrest was a CB-A pick (#35) of the Colorado Rockies in 2014 out of Orangewood Christian in Orlando/Winter Park area. I saw him play some, he was a stud SS until shoulder issues in HS. Became a 2B, mostly. He was touted as a pure hitter then, with a 5 tool designation until the shoulder. It’s good to hear the arm has come back a good bit.
He’s a bit of a grinder these days. At 28, I hope he gets a chance.
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Minor league deal, yes. A major league deal for 2025, no. Those 40 man spots are getting tight.
Others said it, but what does a healthy John Means look like? It’s a valid question.
Hitting coach death watch
in Orioles Talk
Posted
They do have some things to answer for. I do not think Hyde is in trouble, but the hitters have regressed with swing decisions in an effort to be more aggressive. The power numbers are up, on base is down. Strikeouts are skyrocketing. Perhaps that is on each player, or perhaps their philosophy is flawed.
To me, the real question is, is it the coaches, or is this aggression coming from Sig, Mike and Eve?