Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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9 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
I'm getting a Connor Norby feel. A bat stashed at 2B that has an average or worse glove. Does he end up on the dirt or is he a LF? Dude can hit though...
Norby was cleaner at 2B, but Moore has better athleticism. Moore would need a lot of work to stay on the dirt. I would think they want to move him quickly, whichever team takes him.
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13 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Keith Law has him going late 1st round and doesn’t sound like a fan.
26. New York Yankees: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore has probably performed his way into the first round, even though the underlying tools and instincts don’t support it. He’s hit 23 homers and has a .380/.446/.774 line (through Monday) as part of the Vols’ loaded lineup, where five hitters already have 15 or more homers. I could also see them on Ryan Waldschmidt or Jordan.
Baseball America’s most recent mock had him going 19. Some reservations about his defense.
19. Mets — Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore’s offensive consistency in his three years with Tennessee is impressive. He’s posted a 1.000 OPS or better in each season, has hit over .300 in each season and has managed double-digit homers in each season—with a career-best 28 homers in 2024. He did that while cutting his strikeout rate from 24-25% to 14.5%. There are real questions with how much he’ll be able to pick it at second base. Still, he has one of the more proven bats in the class and is getting tons of top-20 buzz.
With Moore’s performance in the tournament, I cannot believe we see him at 1-22. I will be mildly surprised if he makes it past 15. He hits everything hard, and he’s a beast of a competitor. I don’t love him on the dirt in my limited looks, but he’ll hit and have plenty of power as a corner OF.
Did anyone else get just a hint of an Albert “Joey” Belle vibe watching him?
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7 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
I did say "unlikely" before "no matter what." Now that I re-read that though, it's kind of a bizarre sentence so I can see why you interpreted it that way. Of course there's a shot a player taken at 1-22 succeeds.
Elias is certainly above average at drafting, possibly well above average, but the odds are still against him here, as they are for pretty much any individual pick he makes.
I'm not trying to knock Elias here, just stating the fact that the vast majority of players selected in the back of the first round don't turn into solid regulars and so you shouldn't pass up someone you think is more likely to succeed here to draft "for need."
I'm certain someone who will be available at this pick will have an incredible major league career. The odds are against it being whoever we draft though. That's just math.
I gotcha. Your point is certainly valid. The odds are against all of them. Of all the 1-1 picks, only four in the HOF: Ken Griffey Jr., Harold Baines, Chipper Jones and now, Joe Mauer. Others have had great careers, but fell short. Then, there’s ARod.
I was not thinking you were attacking Elias. I just think the Orioles currently have a very good combo of scouting and PD. Their relationship is vital as they collaborate on their picks. Bradfield was a daring pick for the Orioles. It told us more about their philosophy, and they will miss. But when they hit on some of these toolsy picks, it will be worth it.
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18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Using players only in the ACC, using total stats for the season, Honeycutt is 49th in batting average (.312) and 1st in strikeouts (80). That’s a sobering combination.
Great college player.
Using only in conference stats he’s 74th in BA (.274) and 3rd in K’s (42).
His numbers are sobering, agreed. I have to wonder if there is something lacking about UNC and their development strategy. He reminds me a lot of Mac Horvath, in that he is a tremendous athlete who has not developed his hit tool or swing decisions at UNC. Horvath is making strides recently. If they pick Honeycutt, they have to believe they can help him advance these areas considerably. I do like his production with pressure situations.
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5 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
At 22 the player you pick isn't likely to be a valuable major leaguer no matter what. You've just got to grab whoever you think is most likely to be valuable and hope for the best.
No matter what? What is your criteria for “valuable major leaguer?” Must be pretty high.
I think scouting (and player development) has come a long way in the past 5-10 years and the odds are increasing. There are plenty of valuable players and pitchers available, historically, in the past decade. This is supposed to be a weaker draft, but there will be value there. Most likely, if we are to assume this team has a playoff/World Series window of five years or so, the player they take will be a trade chip.
In Elias’ five drafts, he has picked some very valuable picks after 1-22. No?
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21 hours ago, RZNJ said:
I had never heard of Luke Dickerson before. His HS is about an hour away from me. Baseball America does a top 500 ranking. I thought I’d find him in the top 100. Nope. I searched by “Luke” and he popped up at #311. That’s some late riser! Here’s the write up. Is he supposed to be in top 2 rounds consideration?
311. Luke Dickerson
SS
Ht: 6'0" | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
School: Morris Knolls HS, Rockaway, N.J.
Commit/Drafted: Virginia
Age At Draft: 18.9
Dickerson has been one of the better offensive performers among high school hitters in the northeast, which along with his athleticism has piqued the interest of scouts. Dickerson, who won a hockey state championship in March, has a strong, compact frame and plus speed. Scouts highest on him see an offensive-minded righthanded hitter who has shown solid feel for hitting and for the strike zone with the ability to use the middle of the field, along with an uptick in power production this spring. Dickerson has played shortstop but has experience in the center field as well, with second base or the outfield potential fits for him long term.This was a name that Carlos Collazzo and the other guy he does the BA pod with talked about. I did the same search as you, and was mildly surprised.
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58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
If the bat develops he’s a 5 tool player. I could get on board with it because he’s a pick you can dream on, like Brecht. The 27% K rate and the fact that his Junior year stats and freshman stats are almost identical is a red flag for me. He made adjustments his sophomore year (20% K rate) but couldn’t do damage. Junior year he goes back to putting up numbers but the K rate is back to 27%. I would hope for the best but expect what you’re seeing with Spencer Jones in AA this year.
Now Brecht could blow his arm out or walk the stadium but the stuff gets raves, the mechanics look sound, and the guy is an athlete.
If not Brecht, I like taking a shot with Gillen, Lindsey, or Tyson Lewis.
Luke Dickerson is a late riser as well, HS infielder.
Honeycutt’s profile reminds me a lot of Bradfield and Horvath from 2023. He probably won’t be there, but if so, I echo your thoughts. He is a very exciting player, potentially.
Brecht is probably gone too. Not sure what his $ number is, or any of these guys for that matter. They could gamble on an arm there at 22, knowing they can get a HS hitter in the comp pick, 32 (I think?). I like to occasionally gamble on arms, if you like the stuff and the track record. In a way, it’s good that he is at Iowa and not a program that goes deep in the tournament and such.
As I understand it, Brecht converted from a football wide receiver twos year or so ago, so as you said, he’s an athlete. Not sure of the mileage on the arm. With the stuff and athleticism, reliever risk is not a problem for me. I have come around on him a bit after you kept pounding the keyboard on him.
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:
With the choices left on the board there I can’t see how you can pass on the talent of Brody Brecht. You can still pick up a HS or college position player at 32.
If Brecht is there, I can get on board with him. Depends on how much they like guys like Theo Gillen, Kellen Lindsey or Luke Dickerson.
Vance Honeycutt could be there, though I doubt it. But if he is, what are your thoughts? He seems to be a guy they would like a lot, despite swing and miss concerns.
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Toss up between Olson and BRob. Went with Olson.
Ben Wagner was pretty solid as well. Behind KB, I like him at the PBP role.
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It could be a solid 5, since it is the first time many have seen him in person. That said, I don’t expect that, but it can happen. Having McCann behind the dish will help him to navigate his butterflies and execute. If he keeps us in the game, maybe 3-4 runs allowed, and keeps the K/BB around even or better, that would be solid for me.
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In general, the Orioles drafted college hitters over HS bats and pitchers from 2019-2022. True. I believe the 2019 draft was run by Elias. After that, from what was written then, he let the Scouting Director run it after the first round or so. Brad Ciolek, and now Matt Blood.
Did they miss on some, sure. Rhodes, Trimble, Haskin and Wagner raised my eyebrows when they were drafted. All had upside. Trimble and Haskin had too many injuries. Rhodes has had issues elevating the ball, but the exit velos are good. I liked the profiles, but particularly Haskin, for me, was a bit of a reach.
Fabian’s K rate is too high, but it is down from 2023. He is still in play, but it isn’t looking great at the moment. At this point, a 4th Of profile, and that may be all we get from this group.
Tavera was a reach. McLean would have been nice to sign, but the medicals were sketchy. Trace Bright is…a bright spot, though. lol
I agree. They can do better. They gambled on developing the upsides. I hope it continues. HS picks can provide a better shot, but sign ability is a factor most of the time.
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22 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:
I think this year there are more players reclassifying due to “weak” draft. The “experts” do not really love this class after first 10-15 picks. What is the leverage of the reclassified players? I would imagine they may have less leverage in negotiations.
Are you talking about kids who change and get drafted a year earlier? If so, depends on the kid. Cam Collier made it work for him. He had a commitment to play at a JUCO.
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1 hour ago, emmett16 said:
It’s going to be interesting. People I’ve talked to think that HS baseball will disappear. At least for the elite players whose goal is to play after HS.
It will eventually, I think, unless they up what they pay a hs coach. A $2,000 stipend (here in Florida) is not going to get good coaches to work at most high schools. We already see the impact.
Putting up with parents, making practice plans, and gathering a worthy staff is tough enough. Recruiting already happens, and has for years, but it is about to get stupid.
Trying to find a high school coach that will actually help your player develop is quite a challenge. Many schools around here had 120 kids show up for baseball tryouts 20 years ago. Now, if you get 40, that is a lot. Sad.
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1 hour ago, emmett16 said:
The re-class thing seems to almost be the norm now. Mix in new scholarship/NIL rules coming next year and it will be one an even more popular option. It’s about to get crazy. College programs offering 6 & 7 year figures for 4 year commitments. We are entering the wild Wild West.
But wait, there’s more. NIL is coming to high schools too. It is insane!
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12 minutes ago, Gurgi said:
Norby better hit from day one or he wont play. Orioles are horrible about breaking in rookies. We treat them terrible in my opinion.
I am hoping he takes advantage of his opportunity. The kid can really hit. I hope he makes it tough to send him back down. Competition is a great thing. Keep pushing Mateo and Urias, and get the best out of them.
The Orioles play the best player now since they are trying to win. Gone are the days of having placeholders at the major league level and bringing up a prospect to make them a priority play. That is unless they are the best option to help the team win. Lots of good teams break in rookies the same way.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
These things were probably said last April too.
Yes, we know. It’s in every other post or so. We expect him to fall off. So be it. Hopefully, by then Holliday is ready. Jorge can go back to a utility role. I think we understand that is the most likely outcome.
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19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
As he has played everyday, his stats have gotten worse. He is playing too much.
I’m not talking about his stats as much as I am the overall progress he has made. The consistency in his approach is better. His timing is better. Things like that.
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Never a doubt.
I have been one of his bigger fans, yet I cannot help but remember how bad he was after May 1 in 2023. Playing everyday has helped him. Realizing his role and having to make adjustments has helped him immensely, so it seems. I just hope he can continue with his approach and make adjustments when needed.
Honestly, I’m not sure why any pitcher would throw anything inside over the plate. They do him a favor, specifically any breaking ball. He’s not pulling off as much as last year, and not chasing, or whiffing as much. He has driven some balls to RF, but I’d rather that than what he can do with the inside pitch. Particularly when they hang one.
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1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:
Right... I never intimated anything as absolute. I tried to be clear on that point. I'm not sure what you mean by there is data both ways. Regardless, there are exceptions, and in Witt, Jr's case, a great one.
You said it works out less often. I agree that is what the historical data said in a study many years ago. It is a reason to be cautious. I would add that Gunnar is an exception as well. There are a long list of 17 year talents who do not develop. For me, it has more to do with which team drafts them, than age at graduation.
Things are changing, I think. I read an article some months ago about development and it talked about the age factors of high school kids. It was in depth about age, confidence, physical maturation and all that. It talked about high level travel ball, year round development and training, and how modern data have helped evaluate the players. I believe it was the opinion of the author, so I suppose it is anecdotal.
Many talented kids are 19 at graduation, and Florida and Texas have it quite often. When they go to college, they become draft eligible sophomores. There are many examples of players in that demographic finding success.
I have no idea where that article was, sorry. I read a lot about these kinds of things from many sources as a former youth coach and the parent of a 13 year old pitcher/player. I am sure someone will ask for a link. Take it for what it is. Not trying to be argumentative, or contrary. Just adding to the discussion, Greg.
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57 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:
One factor to consider in taking HS talent is age. Historically, prep players that are 19'ish work out less often than their younger counterparts. The main reason is that they are physically more mature, and thus have an advantage. There have been exceptions certainly, but often they have weaker careers.
Sig is well aware of the analytics, so it would be a bit surprising to see us go that route.
In 2019, we took Gunnar 26 days before his 18th birthday, and Holliday was 18.6 years old when we took him in 2022. It's a factor... but I can't say with certainty we wouldn't draft a 19-year old that early.
I hear you on the 19 year olds. I don’t buy it as an absolute. There is data both ways. COVID is still a factor too. Depends on the kid. Each player is judged on their own merits. Bobby Witt Jr. was 19 when drafted.
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5 hours ago, RZNJ said:
I hadn’t heard an up to date report on Gillen’s arm. He’s two years out from that surgery so that’s certainly not good. I like Lindsey too. The only real drawbacks are that he’s a RH hitter and the power projection is questionable but he’s got top of the line speed.
I’m really not interested in the hit first college types like Amick. I’d like to see them go HS position player or roll the dice on a Brody Brecht/Jonathan Santucci college pitcher with big stuff and command issues. At #22 and #32 maybe they can do both.
Lindsey reminds me of Trea Turner at the same age. Not a comp, just a similar player.
I watched Amick and Christian Moore last night. I don’t have enough to give an opinion. I thought both were interesting talents and athletes.
I am concerned about Santucci right now. I can understand wanting a college arm, depends on health and track record.
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15 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Baseball America mock draft 3.0 has Benge and Honeycutt off the board along with Cam Smith and James Tibbs. They have us going for HS hitter Theo Gillen.
22. Orioles — Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, Austin, Tex.
There’s some thought that Gillen doesn’t make it much further than this pick. That’s not to say the Orioles are definitely taking him if he gets here, but scouts think too many teams have interest in this range of the board for him to keep sliding. Gillen has a strong hit/power combination, projectable frame and plus speed.
I was listening to MLB Prospects podcast last week. They talked about Gillen, and mentioned a lot about how he may be the best high school hitter. However, it’s a tough call where he’ll go because of a weak arm. They said the arm was injured, a right labrum, and his arm strength is not back after two years. So, probably wasn’t going to be a SS anyway when said and done due to size, maybe a 2B/LF or CF profile due to the weak arm and 60 speed.
He was projected to maybe become the top high school player in the draft as a sophomore, but injured the shoulder and had some other injuries that have held him back.
It is going to be interesting to see where Elias goes with picks 22 and 32. I would like to see Gillen there, but I think he’ll be gone. Kellon Lindsey is interesting, and maybe Billy Amick, along with one of the previous college hitters you mentioned will sneak through. Lindsey is rising fast.
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Retirement is the best call he’s made in years. He finally got one right. Way to go, Angel!
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58 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
I’m thinking they might go HS position player (Theo Gillen) or college pitcher (Jonathan Santucci) and do things a little different this year.
I would love to get Gillen, but it seems like his name is rising quickly in some circles. Santucci has had command issues, and some say he may go in the second round, maybe a comp A pick.
Draft Targets 2 Months Out
in O's Amateur Draft and International Signings
Posted
For me, it’s not about Moore’s tournament performance as much as his apparent ability to square the ball up and use the entire field. Legit power and hit tool.