Jammer7

LeBlanc, for me, is a fall back option. If he is in the pen for length, ok. My concern is I would like to have more optionable pieces there. I guess we use him for a month, and then DFA him when we need a fresh arm. If we have more injuries and he needs to start, fine. But we are likely to see an ERA over 6 in 4-6 weeks, and a WHIP of 1.5. He is what he is. If we have a shot to keep Tyler Wells, I'd rather do that if it comes down to the two of them. But I still think the chances of keeping an R5 are very slim, at least for the entire year. Perhaps keeping more length guys will afford an opportunity to keep Wells. We'll see.

I guess the Giants were waiting for....never mind. Seems to be a bit of a late bloomer, but we can't keep them all. I agree with Tony that he should never again be on the Orioles' active roster, at least I hope not. And I think the less we know about his injury, the better. The only way it blows up on the Orioles is if Davis comes out and proclaims he is ready to play and somehow implicates the Orioles in some wrongdoing. Maybe Scott Boras has somehow convinced him that being injured is a good thing for all at this point. With that said, I am not advocating for insurance fraud here, but if he's the slightest bit banged up, so be it.

Interesting list, and the player comments are solid. Ranking Maikol Hernandez at #22 and Sam Basallo at #28 were refreshing. Coby Mayo at #18 caught my eye with as much swing and miss as there is, but huge arm and power tools. Luis Ortiz LHP, along with Sedlock, fell off the list. Honestly, any list without Bruce Zimmermann is not complete. For me, he should be somewhere in the 12-15 range. The write-ups referenced the Fall Instructs on several occasions, even quoted an Orioles' employee as saying Vavra was a "moneyball-style 2B."

No need to game Zimm's service time really. He turned 26 last month. His time is now. We disagree on LeBlanc, and I have not seen anyone, as far as journalists or experts, projecting him to stick once they signed Harvey. However, that could change, depending on Felix' elbow. Elias may claim a guy who gets cut, or sign a FA who opts out. LeBlanc, for me, is a fall back, but I know you like what he has done so far in 2021.

He seems like a lock to be on the team, and really should be in the rotation. Jorge Lopez has really pitched well for the most part. We'll see what Felix' elbow does, but both of those guys have to be in consideration for a starter role.

Yeah, I am intrigued by both. I agree that Nevin is the priority. Shaw looks to be in better shape (leaner) than he did with SF. Nevin looks to be a little more muscular than last year as well. I think the staff will continue to impress on both of them that developing their athleticism/strength is huge for them to play in MLB. I would like to see Nevin play 3B, but in limited looks for me his arm looks like it might be short for that in an everyday role. They both have a ways to go for various reasons. Shaw needs a ton of work to shorten that swing and improve his pitch recognition. Nevin gave an interview a week or two ago and mentioned that Elias told him he needed to play multiple positions 1B/3B/COF and they would be moving him around a lot.

Good stuff! The rotation might not be too bad, actually. Akin’s command and off speed need to come around some. Interesting development of Conner Greene. I wonder if Fernando Abad isn’t going North with the team, though. I’m not a big fan of Lakins, and have no problem DFAing him. I do think Hyde likes him though. Does he like Wells better? I do. In the pen you list, Greene has an option, Sulser, Tate and Fry have options as well. I would like a little more flexibility, ideally, but that should do, especially with a 9-man pen.

That’s easy to say. I am sure his dad has given him every advantage of having a major league dad, and I doubt he has any issues with pressure. But high end kids like that have not failed much. So you just don’t know until they struggle for a few months. “You don’t know until you know.” (probably Yogi Berra)

I agree with some of that, but the confidence of a high end kid can be shattered with prolonged utter failure. Like I said, I have not watched him and have no idea of his preparedness for this kind of jump. Perhaps he is just plain ready. But has ever really failed? And what happens when he does? IDK. It will be interesting to watch. I hope he does well, but I am skeptical.

Sure, but they generally don’t skip A/AA/AAA altogether and succeed. Griffey, Arod, Tatis, Machado, Trout, etc...all played some minor league ball for 1-2 years. I have no knowledge of where Witt is in his preparedness, but wow.

Exactly my thoughts. We’ll see, I guess. He may be the once in a generation type, or they may set him back. He’s a heck of a talent though, for sure.

Yep, and that is such an aggressive risk to me. Why rush a guy like that? Is Jake Fox his hitting coach? Good luck kid.

I agree with what Mike is doing, though like you, I am among many who questioned leaving Pop unprotected. As far as development, I agree with him, and everything you wrote. I do think that he is doing what is right for the players and the organization. I do think it is conservative compared to many others, including the previous regime here. But he is in a rebuild, so in fairness, he has the luxury of being patient. When we begin competing for playoff births and the payroll rises, will he still have the same approach? IDK.

This place will go nuts! Absolutely.

Interesting, how is that false? Making your prospects spend nearly a full season in each level is a conservative approach in modern times. He calls that conservative, himself, but I suppose you can call it something else. I won’t quibble about semantics. I’ll be over here shrugging my shoulders, sipping my bourbon. Meanwhile, John Smoltz was speaking on MLB network a few days ago about Bobby Witt Jr. and stated he would tear up the minors and would be the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year. Now that is aggressive promotion.

Not knowing how they valued his work in Bowie last year, just my guess. Elias has shown to be conservative with his talent. If DL starts in AA, would that be too conservative though? I mean he has no time there yet. I will be disappointed if DL is not in Norfolk by mid July or so.

Generally, I think he will be conservative with the higher end high school guys like Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Adam Hall or guys with higher ceilings. I think he’ll be apt to move up college guys like Cadyn Grenier, AJ Graffanino, Terrin Vavra, and some of the college arms from the 2019 draft. Take a little more time for the higher ceiling guys that could really benefit from the more gradual initial progression. Some of the moderate ceiling/moderate floor guys will be pushed up some. I like the idea of Fenter in the Bowie pen. It should be interesting.

I don’t completely disregard the traditional Spring stats, but almost. Ruiz had two doubles yesterday, one was an easy fly ball that should have been caught but got lost in the sun. The other was well struck and bounced off the track in the gap and into the stands. Some of the better pitching lines were against guys who will be in the minors soon. I will say it is troubling if the pitchers are always behind in the count, walk a lot of guys, or get wild in the middle of the zone. Particularly if these pitchers are doing this from here until the end of Spring. Also troubling is if hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone regularly. This is the time when they need to clean things up. This is when the regulars start playing longer and have more normal at bats. This is when the pitchers have had time to get loose and work on some things, and now it’s time to get more dialed in. Some guys look bad in Spring, but they flip a switch in the regular season and all is good. I am just glad to have baseball back.

Jake sure did have a phenomenal Spring. I do remember Buck not being impressed with Jake.

It is a talented group, for sure. Ciuffo will get a lot of run at C, and Shaw might get a lot of time in LF and 1B. Nevin might do the same, and I’d like to see him get some time at 3B.

We all have our opinions about how things should be done. In the end, what Elias, Sig, Hyde, Holt and the rest of a very smart and capable staff do will be in the best interests of the team, the players and the future of the organization. Some things are obvious, while other things are more subtle, need time and cultivation. There is a process to building a winning franchise from the ground up. And they have been pretty transparent about what they are trying to do. Harvey apparently made some batters take terrible swings today with his new weapon, a 2 seam. That does not necessarily make him a Cy Young candidate, but it does show progress in the alteration of his attack of hitters. It shows growth. If he is able to improve his mechanics, pitches, command, and sequences, then he should produce better results if Holt and the analytics guys are actually good at their jobs. I believe they are excellent. Maybe today was just an aberration, and maybe he still is terrible. Time will tell. Scouts and coaches will tell you that stats do not mean much, but the swings that good batters take tell you everything you need to know. Spring training is a time for guys to get loose, build up innings and strength, refine command and feel of their pitches. Managers and coaches recognize this and the track records of the veteran players and pitchers. Many major league stars struggle in the Spring and even into May. For instance, Eddie Murray was notorious for being a slow starter. Come June, he was the hottest bat around. @PhilipSorry if my tone has been grumpy or dismissive tonight. My patience was a little thin earlier this evening. A colleague of mine lost a battle for his life and passed away. Far too many these days. I have no excuse. I do enjoy discussions like this. We’ll see what happens. I may be totally wrong in my assessments and I will admit such if I am.

See my previous post for explaining why you evaluating these men by their Spring stats is a terrible way to determine who the best 5 are.

See my previous post for explaining why you evaluating these men by their Spring stats is a terrible way to determine who the best 5 are.

You are correct, sir. Old man brain. Thanks!

Harvey had a really nice outing today. LeBlanc did well last year and got smoked when the season started. Spring stats, with all due respect, mean very very little. But hey, you’re entitled to your opinion. We disagree. Zimm has been great, sure. But they are also easing him into the year and his innings. He will certainly get some starts. I think he is a better starter long term than Akin, as I wrote earlier. He has faced some decent hitters, and also some reserves who will not be major leaguers in a few weeks. Success in the Spring means just about nothing when evaluating pitching. A lot more goes into this than stats. How their stuff looks, how strong they are getting, if they are healthy, track record, who they actually face in these games that do not matter and they are not where they are going to be in the weeks and months to come. That evaluation is all based on the manager and coaches experience and they interpret data that you and I have no access to is many cases. I get it, you don’t want to see Hernandez and Harvey become Orioles. You prefer LeBlanc. You’ve said it repeatedly. I read your comments previously. Whether you like it or not, there is value there with veteran experience and what they can impart to young guys, not to mention the value of what their improvement may bring on a trade market. Two former dominant pitchers have a lot to offer. For the record, I did not want more than one vet starter going North coming into Spring. Then they signed Harvey, and I am intrigued. I wanted Zimm to earn a starter spot from the outset, but their process may preclude him starting right away. Zimm is also an optionable asset on a staff with few guys who can or would be optioned for a fresh arm in case they keep 13 pitchers only. My guess is that Felix kinda is what he is at this point. Maybe he finds another tick or two, but he’ll find a way to compete on most days. Harvey has progressed some already with his use fo the two seam today. He hung two breaking balls today, and he paid. A lot of breaking balls get hung in Spring Training by even the best starters. Hyde said today that Harvey got a lot of ugly swings, and that is much better an indicator than meaningless March stats.