Jammer7

I do not know what we don’t know...! ? He knows what the doctors, experts and Trey are telling him. Do you? Do you know what guys will be injured? You listen to what your trainers and coaches and scouts tell you. You are right, though, unathletic DH’s do not often get injured. He is much closer to the situation. Elias knows the intricate metrics, he knows the player attitude, habits and abilities much better than an outsider or fan knows. I can go on and on, but it won’t matter to you. I think it’s a great decision. We can agree to disagree on this one.

We can disagree a little on this. He did have 32 RBI’s to lead the team last year, tied with Santander. 32 RBI’s in two months is pretty solid production. And the throwing errors are not characteristic of him. Usually a strong accurate arm. I think he was dinged up, maybe a shoulder or a minor oblique. Either way, he is on thin ice. All depends where his head is when he comes to Spring.

Elias is making decisions with a lot more information than you and I have on these matters. These are educated assumptions on his part, like how you expect Nunez to continue to be an .800-ish OPS, which is really below average for someone who has no defensive value. You are assuming the league has not, or will not have, figured him out. The way I see it, Nunez would have gotten about 500-600 plate appearances last season absent COVID. Elias, and many others here, believe that the team is better served with the outcome of those at bats split among other young players who have more value for the money they earn and will be a part of the next competitive team the Orioles field. Why waste those opportunities on a guy that will not be here at that time? Why coach a guy who has not shown any interest in playing defense since Bobby Dickerson left? It IS about roster flexibility. We can have an extra infielder, or an outfielder. Like you said, several players need to show they can stay healthy. Santander, Hays, Iglesias just to name a few. Having guys who can spell them to nurse a nagging injury before it becomes something more major would be nice, no? I find Mike Elias to be quite honest about the things he can be for a GM. The most dishonest things he has said is mostly the nice comments he makes about players he trades or releases. I mean he could point out how badly flawed they are, or how poor their work ethic is, or how they are not coachable, or how we simply have better players now that will make our team better. To say Elias is lying, and then point out that he telling the truth “to a point”...I’m speechless. He simply does not think Nunez is worth the money he would receive in arbitration. Just like the Rays did with Renfroe. Its business, of course it’s about money. That is why you need someone to make educated assumptions and spend what little resources you have wisely.

Ruiz is on thin ice, absolutely. I was going to write that if Ruiz is sent down, because he has an option, then Valaika could man 3B. That would open a spot for Urias. But again, Ruiz might get another chance, in part, because he is a LH bat and has shown that he is capable of handling the job at times. He also is pre-arbitration. Alternatively, if you go back and watch video of 2019, Ruiz had a better swing. He had a gap to gap approach and stayed more so in the middle of the field. In 2020, he put on muscle and sold out for power. His bat got slow and the swing long. I will disagree that he cannot improve, for two reasons. One, he has shown he is capable and he is an athlete. Two, its the coach in me that sees that and refuses to believe he cannot get back to it. The problem rests between his ears and his lack of confidence.

I can agree with that, to a point. There are factors that could likely keep both in Baltimore for a while. Mullins and Stewart can be 4th and 5th OF's on this (at least) 26-man roster in the beginning of the season. With Nunez getting DFA'd, Stewart will likely get the majority of his at bats at DH. Stewart is a tick below average tracking balls and needs to continue working on his routes, but the arm was average-ish from RF. He might be a decent DH if he can get comfortable and stop pressing, but he is not a middle of the order guy for me. Stewart is a LH bat, and we do not have many at the moment and that helps him for now. If Stewart does not produce early, he may be sent down when Diaz is ready. Someone has to go, unless there is an injury. Let me be clear, I am not high on Stewart and I do not think he is long for the organization. He has been passed, or is being passed by the end of 2021, by several more talented players. Mancini should not be playing OF much anymore, IMO. There is no need for that with our current OF depth. Let Trey focus on 1B/DH duties. To me, Mountcastle looked good in the OF for a guy with little experience there. He is one of the most athletic players on the team, which I know surprised many here. The arm keeps him in LF, but I really think he will be about average there now, and eventually an above average LF. He'll back up at 1B when Trey needs a day. Mullins really showed he can play this year. I hope he gets on the field 3-4 times a week. He is our best CF. He takes some pressure off Hays when he pushes him to LF, which would help Hays stay healthy. I think we'll see one reserve INF to start the year. Mancini, Y. Sanchez, Iglesias, Ruiz and probably Valaika. The flexibility of Sanchez and Valaika would allow that. If Iglesias gets dinged up again, then it would make sense to keep two reserve INF's. Urias showed me a lot when he was up, though I could see him getting more work in AAA with Richie Martin in 2021.

Some thought Sedlock and Fenter would go last year, and we’re up in arms. But I really cannot think of any that would have been legitimate losses. Pedro Beato, maybe, but he was disappointing anyway.

Yes, that is true. Nunez was around an .815 OPS and a 121 OPS+ in a two-month season. Renfroe struggled in Tampa for a short season, his first in the AL. In 2019, their offensive production was fairly comparable. Renfroe is a decent defender, but not a gold glove out there. Nunez, well someone should hide his glove.

I am not saying he should be the pick, but he is certainly interesting. We pick fifth, I believe. Maybe Toronto would trade him to us to avoid losing him for nothing. Alberto is expendable for me, and I know there are differing thoughts here. I could see cutting Ruiz, but I think he stays a while longer. I could see Valaika, maybe, but I like what he brings for the price tag. I would like to see what Valaika would do with one position to focus on.

The Rays DFA'd Hunter Renfroe, who hit 33 HR's in 2019, and everyone considers them an intelligent organization. He and Nunez are of a similar overall value, and he is about an average corner OF. Not a perfect comp, but this is being done by teams we admire and profess to want to emulate. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/renfrhu01.shtml

Kevin Smith SS/3B (Toronto/former MD Terp) caught my attention in a glance of the article below. Better numbers, albeit AA in 2019, than I would have thought. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/kevin-smith-675656 Here is an article from MLB Pipeline about the top 30 prospects of each team protected and not. https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-eligible-prospects-2020?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

This is where I am. He only needs 60 days on the active roster, I think. He could do a minor league rehab assignment for a month after a stint on the DL. There is obviously a lot of information we are not privy to that went into this decision. Its a gamble.

I am one who expected this move. When all you can do is DH, you have to really be elite. Renato is not Edwin Encarnacion in his prime in Toronto. He is not a .900 OPS and a 150 OPS+ guy. He may be that some day, and I hope he succeeds. But he is plainly the odd man out. On this roster, we should be rotating the DH to give guys some rest. It should be interesting to see what the market is for him.

To some degree, perhaps that is good. But moving around a lot is not good for the overall proficiency of a player at their projected position. They may take some time to do this in the first half of the season, and then settle into their semi-permanent positions in the second half. At the end of the year, my guess is that we’ll probably see a definitive number of games played at positions indicative of their future roles.

For a shoulder, sure. For a TJ, I don’t think it is that concerning if you have the information to make a decision on how the rehab has gone.

@Wildcard, I agree. Every team picks up waiver claims on occasion. Good teams would do it more often if players they liked were still available when they would have an opportunity to claim them. A piece here and there, even if it is for minor league depth. The Yankees picked up Alberto, for instance, and then waived him before the Orioles picked him up. Although they weren’t waiver claims, Taylor and Muncy were scraps before they got to the Dodgers and made swing changes. There is value out there, and while it may not be exciting for some, it potentially adds to the talent base of this team. As for the Rule 5, Elias kept Martin, but has sent back the other three players taken in his time here. Elias has to take shots like this to acquire talent. Take a look, see what you actually have and if it will stick on your club. We may well get to a point where we do not take a player in the Rule 5, but we’re not there yet. I would be surprised if they do not take at least one R5 player.

I agree with most of this. I will just counter on Pop that we should not assume that no one has seen him. He has been throwing at a facility in Canada. Someone is seeing him throw. Many of these facilities have ties to major league scouts or coaches. People share info from these facilities all the time. It’s a network. If Pop is taken, he’s 18 months out from TJ now. So he is throwing off a mound. He should be on a plan and be full go sometime in Spring, maybe May at latest, with no set backs. Plenty of ways to put him on IL and then go on a rehab assignment. Then do his 60 days on a MLB active roster and we lose him. My guidance on this is if I think he’ll pitch in MLB this season, and I want to keep him, you have to protect him. Mattson will likely be easier to replace than Pop, IMO. I’m not as high on Bannon, but there is plenty of room.

We’ll see about Westburg. You may be right. After watching him for a while now, his frame and body type, I think he’s best suited for 3B. He is going to put on more muscle and weight. They could wait some, but all of those guys cannot play SS. I suppose they could move them around some, and split time in different positions. We’ll see. It may take a while to learn 3B, and that is why I would do it now. I am looking to find the interview of a player at instructs who said it in an interview. I’ll post it when I find it. The player just said he was amazed how good Ortiz looked. He asked what he did to improve. Ortiz told him he just hit off a tee. lol My thoughts on Ortiz and Grenier moving up is based on a few things. I want to see the top guys get the development they need to be successful. Ortiz and Grenier are not the top rated players, so they are more or less filling gaps to some extent. These experienced college guys are known to be excellent defensively, and they are only moving up one level from 2018. Well, Ortiz is really two levels up from Aberdeen to Frederick, but he should be able to handle high A-ball. It would have been their natural advancement at this time if not for COVID. Their gloves should carry them anyway, regardless how they hit. Graffanino just hasn’t played since 2018. He was very difficult to place for me anywhere else in the beginning of the season. They will sort this out during the Spring, and I’ll probably be wrong on several. Just my guess. Every organization is going to have calls like this to some extent. So it may not be crazy to move people up without the at bats/experience of certain lower levels who should be at the level under normal circumstances.

AAA: Nevin 1B, Bannon 2B, R. Martin SS AA: Cullen 1B/3B, Vavra 2B, Grenier SS A+: Daschbach 1B, A. Hall 2B, J. Ortiz SS, Welk 3B, Graffanino UT A-: Servideo 2B, Gunnar Henderson SS, Westburg 3B, Hernaiz UT The most important thing for what I read into Elias’ movements of prospects has been to get legitimate time at each level. Well, that is going to be a challenge for him now to do that. With no minor league season in 2020, how much does roughly two months of alternate camp experience truly benefit a guy like Gunnar Henderson? I still think a HS guy like Henderson goes to Delmarva to start, and then we’ll see. I think Martin could still benefit from time in AAA, at least a few months. I see Westburg at 3B, and I think he is moved there sooner than later. He and Henderson could move fast up the ladder and be in AA by season’s end. Joey Ortiz and Cadyn Grenier are not done by any means. Glove-first guys, sure. But to put them in a UT role at this point is premature a bit. One of the interviews after Fall Instructs had a player commenting about Joey Ortiz looking very improved with the bat. I want to say it was on a MASN podcast. AJ Graffanino has no minor league at bats above low A-ball, and none since 2018. I saw him a bit in college, and I think he could hit. But Frederick seems a good place to start and let him build some at bats in a UT role. That may be his ultimate profile anyway. Terrin Vavra spent all of 2019 in low A. I could see him in AA at 2B, maybe some time in CF. Cullen may not be a legitimate middle infielder, but it looks like he may be able to hit. He’s 5-10, but maybe a move to 3B, some time at 1B or some corner OF time to build a UT profile. Tony’s comparison to Matt Stairs I thought was interesting.

Padilla will be a fine return for a guy who never pitched for us. This should conclude the trades made during the 2020 season, right?

I feel the same. Maybe they want to see what he does in this off season as far as conditioning. Lopez has stuff, but cannot maintain it and lacks physicality. This group obviously embraces conditioning. I think it would help Lopez greatly. We'll see if he does the work.

I agree. I suspect Mike Elias does as well. So many young arms blown out and just to max out the FB.

Yeah, the BA top 10 is solid. I would argue that Westburg is somewhere just behind Henderson, and bump Akin out to #11. Akin is still very spotty with his command, especially the secondaries. Henderson and Westburg have a legitimate shot to be a top 100 prospects this time next year, IMHO.

Watching the videos in recent weeks, I came away impressed that Gunnar Henderson is not in awe of anything. His body language, his comments, he’s impressive. Very athletic and smooth. He has a confident and good-natured flair about him, and I really like that. Very curious to see where he starts in 2021. It was good to read that Jordan Westburg and Andrew Daschbach are showing well. I read somewhere that Maverick Handley had gotten into great shape and was raking in instructs. We need more catching prospect depth. Hopefully, Kyle Stowers and Zach Watson make a similar progression at the plate.

I recall Graffanino was supposed to drafted around round 3 per Baseball America’s 2018 pre draft writeup, but slid some late and signed for an overslot deal in round 8. He’s athletic and twitchy, good glove, above average arm, average runner. He was injured in 2018 and had a serious gastrointestinal issue for the entire 2019 season per mlbpipeline.com. Their writeup of him, where they ranked him #23 in the Braves system, said he got much stronger during 2020 and impressed in instructs. They then took down his profile when I went to post it. He is not ranked in our top 30, and I do not think he will be right now. He’s got a lot to prove, but I would not say he is a non prospect just yet. Probably a UT profile, unless the bat improves dramatically. I saw him play a few times on tv at Washington and I remembered being impressed by his surprising quickness and overall defensive ability. He looked gap to gap, more of a slasher then. Reminded me of Flash, a thin high-waisted long lever body type.

You may end up being right on this. The odds are on your side. But he is going to get an opportunity in Baltimore because of his athleticism and his apparent work ethic. His speed and ability to play in the middle infield, along with the obvious strength he added before 2020 and much more explosive swing mechanics, are why I believe he would be claimed. He may end up being a guy who plays a UT role. I am curious how he would do in CF with that speed and solid above average arm. He’s a known quantity who, if nothing else, provides depth at SS in case Iglesias battles injuries again. I’m not saying he will be an all star, but I would not rule out his being an everyday player on a non-competitive team like the Orioles. He is also cheap, pre-arbitration. He is not blocked by anyone long term at this point, nor is he blocking anyone. Why not hold what you have as long as there is apparent upside?