Jammer7

The 2020 stats are indicative of his improvements in his athleticism, approach and overall hitting process. I see that in his play, albeit in a small amount of games, compared to years past. The tools are legit, and the attitude is great. The only things I take from his 2020 stats is the improved BB/K rate and swing and miss numbers that Brad Ciolek spoke about. And yes, I believe they are right that Kjerstad was about to have a monster year. He worked hard and it shows.They had a good amount of data and scouting reports on him over about 5-6 years. It’s my opinion to put him #2 in this exercise. Eye of the beholder thing. Adley was #1 before he played a minor league game as well. I admit that I did not consider Kjerstad seriously before the draft. Like everyone else, I assumed it would be Martin or Lacy. I did not do any work on him until after the pick. What I remembered from years past was not what I saw when I looked at his swing. I read up on him much more and understand why Elias selected him. I like Grayson a lot. My son played against him in travel ball. He improved a ton too the year he was drafted. Nearly everyone here said it was a terrible pick, a reach. I loved the pick. All of that said, it’s a fun exercise. I get the skepticism about kids that have yet to play pro ball. Especially HS guys. It’s all projection based on limited video and many other people’s observations. I tend to give Elias and his staff the benefit of the doubt. The more I learn about their process, the more I trust it. And I’ve been fooled before, so...

Tendencies are never absolute On the other hand, I consider what he accomplished at Arkansas and Team USA to be significant. Those comments are really for tie-breaking. I think Henderson and Westburg are similar, but I gave the nod to Westburg. I try not to be that guy with a shiny new nickle, but yeah, we all have done it.

1. Adley Rutschman C# 2. Heston Kjerstad OF* - yes, I think he is more valuable than anyone not named Rutschman 3. Grayson Rodriguez RHP 4. D.L. Hall LHP 5. Austin Hays OF - just stay healthy and he is a star 6. Ryan Mountcastle LF/1B 7. Mike Baumann RHP - this large human could be our best pitcher in a few years 8. Yusniel Diaz OF - this was to be the year he stayed healthy and put it together...sigh 9. Dean Kremer RHP - 10. Hunter Harvey RHP 11. Keegan Akin LHP - I think he is better than his stats from 2019, I give him the benefit of the doubt for now that he was working on things out of his comfort zone 12. Zac Lowther LHP 13. Adam Hall SS - I am a fan of his overall game 14. Jordan Westburg SS - played well in the best college conference, believe he will make adjustments to drive the ball and make more consistent contact 15. Gunnar Henderson SS* - need to see more from him above GCL; mediocre HS competition, but solid in Summer circuit 16. Ryan McKenna OF - I believe he will get back to a more gap-to-gap approach. Trying to lift the ball is not his game. 17. Drew Rom LHP - looking forward to the gradual growth of this young man 18. Bruce Zimmerman LHP - really impressed by what I have seen in him, velo increase last year too 19. Kyle Stowers OF* - not sure what to think here just yet, but draft status and tools have him here 20. Hudson Haskin OF - biggest wildcard, but he hits the ball hard and plays hard 21. Anthony Servideo SS* - hopefully the 2020 version is who he is 22. Darell Hernaiz SS - future star 23. Alex Wells LHP 24. Brenan Hanifee RHP 25. Zach Watson OF - exciting tools, but needs to get a little stronger and make more consistent contact 26. Coby Mayo 3B - tools to be a top 5 talent in a few years 27. Gray Fenter RHP - may end up a back end BP guy, but encouraging year in 2019 28. Carter Baumler RHP - looking forward to his gradual growth 29. Luis Ortiz LHP - Elias/Koby strike it rich here. His video is impressive. Long way to go...but wow 30. Raul Rangel RHP - when this young man puts on some good weight, he is going to be a really good one. Saw a small amount of video on him, but I have read where a few people raved about him in the Tricky League. I tend to give a little more credence to the player who has done it at higher levels. For instance, I have Westburg over Henderson because Westburg played two plus years at Miss State, while Henderson was in HS in Alabama in mediocre competition and a little GCL. I also value everyday players slightly over pitchers, generally, because of the risk involved. Weems says they all break, and he is right. The last two, I went with pure talent and projection. I wanted to see what that was like to actually list international talent.

I think the 40 grade was a bit low for previous years, but yes, he has improved his body a great deal. Probably from a 45 to a 55. I don't have a stopwatch on him, but my eyes see he is much more explosive in his movement. Dave Van Horn, his coach at Arkansas, said he had been working very hard to improve his explosiveness and overall athleticism. I have been watching him since he was a Freshman. I liked what I saw then, but he was below average athletically, although a good young power bat with average defense. He has really improved. All of these journalist rankings were based on previous years reports. Take a look at the video from this year. Look back at past years video and you can see the tremendous improvement in his body and athleticism.

He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him. And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early.

I am glad you shared your thoughts. It creates discussion here. I mean no disrespect to you at all. And I don’t disagree with you completely. I just wanted to share my thoughts as well and point out that these rankings are flawed in most years. And this year, much more so. I am just asking you to put the rankings aside for a minute and look at the latest video. When I watched the 2020 video on these guys, especially Kjerstad, I was impressed. Kjerstad is much faster than a 40 runner, for instance. He may be just a tick above average. I’ll throw a 55 on him. He even bunted for base hits and stretched singles into doubles. He obviously has worked hard and he is much leaner. His swing is more controlled and the ball is flying off the bat. His swing and miss was cut down significantly. I honestly, aside from track record, do not see much difference between Torkelson and the current version of Kjerstad in the way of hit or power tools. My non-professional eyes tell me that. I know many here will mock me for this, but I truly believe that. Look at the video in the Kjerstad thread. He definitely is much improved over last year.

The “rankings” that all of us refer to are made by people who are not scouts, aside from Keith Law. Jim Callis, Jon Mayo, the Baseball America crew, etc...they are journalists. They hang out at prep tournaments and showcases and glean information from scouts. They text people and correspond in other ways to gather information given to them by those who form educated opinions. They do a great job disseminating information to the readers and listeners. But opinions vary. Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, Brad Ciolek and the rest of the professional scouting staff put a lot of work in this Spring behind the scenes. So did every other team’s staff. Probably not as much info sharing. Maybe even more misinformation than in past years. This was a year where info was particularly proprietary. I was surprised at some of the picks, sure. But I am not upset at all. I trust Mike Elias to do right by the Baltimore Orioles. The first four picks were not “sexy,” but Mayo and Baumler seem like they were solid over slot guys. I like their profiles. Guys that we likely would have seen rise if they had played their senior years. They were taken in rounds where the Orioles felt good about the risk after getting their guys earlier who would not have been there in rounds 4-5. In fact, all of their college picks were having good or great starts to 2020 as well. The spin has been that they were all about to blow up. We’ll never know about that. Did they all make meaningful development strides in the off season? Should we discount the numbers due to small samples? IDK. Like every year, we’ll remember to judge this draft in 4-5 years. I feel strongly that Heston Kjerstad was not the 10th best player as I keep reading here. I have him around 4-5. The signability goes into the value, sure. I wanted Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy, but Kjerstad and Veen were next for me. And if Martin, and his agent Boras, wanted 8.4 million, I would pass too in the Orioles situation. Maybe they did not believe in him as an infielder, and not a top shelf CF. Maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore, who knows. I think it is certainly possible that when all is said and done, we will get as much production from Kjerstad as we would have from Martin. They just go about it in different ways. I welcome the new Orioles to the fold. I look forward to seeing how this draft works out and seeing our boys back on the field. I need them back on the field.

Yeah, that wasn't his best look there. He's a HS kid, and was over-throwing there like many do at PG events. He seemed fluid at first, and then some effort came in. He did telegraph the breaking ball, but that is fixable. The change was solid there, nice depth and fade. Not much projectability there. Fairly mature physically. He would need to take it slow, but I think this is a kid that Chris Holt would do wonders for. Depends on what his number is.

I like what they have done so far. I had not seen the video of Kjerstad from 2020, and I like what I saw. I have no problem with his swing at all. The leg kick, meh, if it works for him, fine. But he looks like he was recognizing some pitches better. His power is top of the charts to all fields. Westburg is a talented kid whose best days are ahead of him. Not a true comp, but he reminds me some of DJ Lemahieu, with a good bit more speed and athleticism. I think they do save somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 million, maybe a bit more, on Kjerstad. That is just a speculative guess. Westburg is probably not much below slot, if at all. Elias said they were looking at some pitchers at 30, but they were selected before they picked, Bitsko perhaps. So, at 39, I take Fulton. That is not because he is the best player available, though he would have been if healthy. I think he will be over slot, but not as much as Wilcox or maybe Kelley. That might leave him out there for another team to take, so grab him now. Wilcox and/or Kelley will likely be there at 74. Wilcox might be in the top 5 players picked in 2021 in he returns to UGA. His leverage is strong, but not as much of a track record as a starter hurts him a bit. Chris McMahon is very interesting, and I bet he's gone in round 2. You could do well to go that route, but may lose Fulton. Tanner Witt and Masyn Winn are two more high end HS guys that are interesting, but I have not seen much video there. Cole Henry (LSU) is another college arm I like, though there is a history of elbow issues. He is a sophomore, so he can go back to school. JT Ginn is out there as well. We don't know what their bonus demands are, but Elias does. This may turn out to be an incredible haul. If they come away with Dax Fulton and Chris Wilcox, I would be elated to have four first round talents.

Yeah, Veen was an example more than the only guy. Obviously, they think Kjerstad is the way to go. Probably had a lot to do with many factors, but they wanted to save some money for 30/39.

This is where I’m at. He did not say he wouldn’t go underslot, not in the interviews I have seen. He said it would be difficult because of the limited number of rounds to potentially spread the savings out. In other words, if he misses the over slot candidates he wants at 30/39, then what does he do with the saved money. He would look bad to a point. And the GM speak of Elias is polished. It will be the BPA according to their board.

The only real knock on him is that he does not have a track record of durability. The stuff and his frame are excellent. I know the young man a little bit as my son played against him for years both travel and high school. Sophomore eligible too, so not sure if signability is an issue.

The comments from Elias about Correa’s selection that I have seen always refer to him as being the “best player available.” He has even said that other teams had Correa at the top of their board as well. He happened to get a lesser deal, despite the fact that the Astros had him ranked #1 on their board. So, his recent comments do not cement anything in my mind about taking Martin or Torkelson. I believe what he says about taking who they think is the BPA. Whether it is the more common two, or Gonzalez or Veen. I do not think, based on many comments around the industry, that they will take a pitcher. Too much risk when there are is very good hitters available.

Its just a lot of risk based on projected value. If he was a real solid defender and had a better floor, maybe I could see it. There just isn't a consistent track record there of hitting against even solid level competition. Small town kid from Mississippi, who trimmed his body nicely before this Spring. But apparently was not showing the same power early in the season before COVID. This is the kind of kid that teams want to see prove himself in college. I doubt Sig's modeling would be favorable to him. I hope the kid has a great college career and ends up the next Torkelson. It is just too much risk, especially at picks 30/39 to take a probable 1B who may not hit enough to get to Frederick. BA has him ranked at #90. Nah, I pass in favor of those with more likely overall value.

Some like him, some don't. A ton of raw power in BP, but a lot of swing and miss in games. For me, he has to prove he can hit higher level pitching consistently. Probably a 1B profile, but maybe a corner OF if he works hard.

That's a really good list. The mock picks from 10-29 seem all over the place. I think you are right about Bitsko being gone, but Mick Abel (not likely) or Jared Kelley could be there at 30. I would add: Bobby Miller RHP (Louisville-would be a redraft), Slade Cecconi RHP (MIami-another redraft), Nick Loftin SS (Baylor), Cole Henry RHP (LSU), Cole Wilcox RHP (Georgia-Over slot?), Drew Romo C (Tx. HS), Jared Jones RHP/OF (Ca. HS) and Kevin Parada C (Ca. HS). Parada is a bit of a sleeper here. He seems to be rising because of the bat in high-level competition and a solid catcher who can stay behind the plate. There is a solid amount of Perfect Game data on him. Romo is supposed to be an excellent defensive catcher who is hit over power right now. And Walker is supposed to be a above average to plus athlete and a 60 runner, so maybe he is a corner OF down the road. As to what I think the Orioles may do, I hope they have Dax Fulton pegged at #39. If other teams are showing serious interest from 31-38, then take him at 30. I think his profile and upside is that of a top 5 pick in three years if he goes to college. He may be the only risk they take in the top 3 rounds. I would love to see Ed Howard there at #30, they may grab him. Tanner Witt and Jared Kelley may turn their heads as well, but that might be too much risk if they plan on Fulton at #39. I think they go college otherwise. Cole Wilcox is my top pick of the more likely possibilities at pitcher, but he may be over slot as well. I like Westberg a lot, but Loftin is real solid across the board and was driving the ball more this Spring. Maybe they can save a little of the slot for these two at #30? Or maybe they stay around slot. There is not much out there about Fulton's bonus demands, but an assumption about over slot based on where he would be if he were healthy. This is one of the more fun drafts in recent years for me. Do the Orioles stay with more of a college approach? Or is Sig's data base and modeling advanced enough now to be bolder with HS talents with less recent looks?

Yes, agreed. But if he can save a little of the slot amount at #2, then great. Maybe get Boras to agree to split the difference between picks #2 and 3. Save a few hundred thousand and use it at 30/39. To me, that is the goal. Boras is likely saying Martin should be paid at full slot, maybe over.

This is mostly where I am. I think we will see Martin taken. He is the best player available. His bat will play anywhere. If he was a legit proven SS, he would likely not be available at #2. I would play it safe and take Martin The Boras factor certainly is in play. Perhaps they are trying to save as much of the slot as they can for picks 30/39, which, in my opinion, are huge in this draft. Even if this speculation saves 300-500k from the #2 pick, it is worth it. There may certainly be some serious HS talent there, and it will not come cheap. Then they could maybe go underslot at rounds 3/4/5. Zac Veen, however, may end up being much more athletic than most think. He is still growing and developing. When he gets more coordinated and comfortable in his own body, and gets stronger, I can see the Bellinger comps. He is fluid and loose, just needs to add more strength and explosiveness with training and nutrition. If Elias goes this route, it is risky, sure. But I won’t be upset with it if he saves some money and takes top sliding talents with 30/39.

@hoosiers Good response. I agree that it would be very unlikely. We may not see either one make it to pick 30. This hypothetical scenario is the only way I would not take Martin or Lacy at pick #2. We would be fortunate to take Martin and get Fulton at #30, and that is what I hope for. We could take Martin, and then a college starter at #30, like a Cade Cavalli or a Bobby Miller, if either is still there. And then hope Fulton is still there at #39. We’d have to go underslot somewhere, maybe the remaining three picks.

So, a hypothetical draft of: 1 (pick #2) Zac Veen OF* 2 (pick #30) Nick Bitsko RHP 3. (pick #39) Dax Fulton LHP Would you be good with this haul in the first two rounds? You would likely have to save some money at #2 to take the next two, assuming they are there. That would be the only way I do not take Austin Martin or Asa Lacy. You would have to not worry about the competitive cycle beginning in less than five years. Bitsko and Fulton were top 15-20 talents overall, Fulton had the TJ surgery but he is the top HS LHP despite that. Personally, I would do this. What say you?

That is a good article from Dan Connolly. In this draft, I really like Lacy a lot and would be just fine with him at #2. Though I would slightly prefer Martin if Tork is gone. Not much wear and tear this year, which is not the norm for college juniors who are Friday night starters. Regarding Veen, I guess maybe DC thinks the O’s will be conservative here and not go HS based on the limited data. I like Veen a lot, from what I have seen and heard. Some of my Scorpions friends tell me he is the real deal with a ton of upside still. But there is a considerable amount of risk there, and none of us want to see the Orioles blow this pick. Not with Martin, Tork, or Lacy there. He could save money for picks 30/39, sure. But he may be giving away a championship caliber player in Tork, Martin or Lacy. Gonzalez is such a wildcard, and he would be a ballsy pick for Elias when he could have taken the other three. Gonzalez might be a legit hitter with more power than most think, but Elias has better be right if he takes him to save money. He would have to be Altuve without the plus speed for this pick to work for me.

Eye of the beholder thing. He’s just not for me. He has apparently worked hard to tone his body. It is hard to say what he will become, but the risk is extreme with him. I would hope he goes to college and develops an ability to hit good pitching and get to his power in games.

It is encouraging to hear LHP Dax Fulton. I’ve been hoping we would take him with one of 30/39. Not a huge Blaze Jordan guy. It’s one big tool, raw power, and a 1B/DH profile. The raw power is nice though. There are a few college SS’s and college arms I figure Elias might be looking at for one of the two picks. But there are several very toolsy HS picks that should be there if Elias wants to take a chance.

Thanks for posting this. I read this Monday and meant to comment to you. Drastically different from BA’s write up that I referenced. Not my critique, theirs. I’ve never seen the kid. I am two years removed from most of the HS kids. I know many of the college Sophomores and Juniors fairly well. I have some info on the Central Florida kids, but that’s about all I got as a personal knowledge base. I like what MLB wrote about Halpin. If that is what Elias sees, then perhaps he’s higher on the board. I believe Elias May take 1-2 HS kids, at most. Just based on limited data and all. Quite polar reports, but that’s how it goes. One scout sees him on a bad few days. Another sees him on a good few games. What I take from that is inconsistency would make it tougher to draft him unless you are all in on him as an area scout and cross checker.

I agree. See Christian Laettner as another example at Duke. But he had to shut up and sit the bench on the Dream Team...lol Remains to be seen just how far he takes it, but I doubt it is anywhere near those two. That would be something the area scout would have to do his homework on. Elias will have that diagnosed. If you win, you're a leader. If you lose, you are a malcontent or ego maniacal because you hate losing. Martin has been a baseball player for along time, so I am sure his fire is tempered some. Its a game of failure, and that is what Jordan learned as a Birmingham Baron. It's very humbling. From what I have seen, Martin has the respect of his Vandy teammates. You have to have some Alphas on a winning team. Whether anyone likes them or not.