Jammer7
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Overall, I like this draft. I think the Orioles drafted two first rounders (Kjerstad and Westburg), two second rounders (Mayo and Baumler) and two third rounders (Haskins and Servideo).
@Tony-OH, is it more so that you think Mayo and Baumler may have ended up being drafted in the first round in 2023? I can agree with that. Both are very talented undervalued kids by the public lists. I think these were very astute picks, and it shows the Orioles believe in their player development group.
I am higher on Westburg than some, but I believe he was on the verge of a big year as well. He clearly made an effort to clean up his mechanics and approach. I think he looked stronger, and more compact in his swing. He will likely add some good weight and be an athletic above average 3B to cover ground on shifts. To me, he is just scratching the surface of the player he can become.
Servideo could end up as a first round talent, if the Spring 2020 version is who he is. Look at all of the “solid college shortstops” who get taken in the first 50 picks each year. “Sure handed, solid defenders” with 50 grades or below for hit and speed, and a 45 grade for power. Many of these guys end up never making it to the big club. If they do, they are utility or low impact types. Cadyn Grenier comes to mind. Servideo could be an impact guy with speed and a gap to gap approach, providing energy and a spark. Or, he may not make it past AA ball. A solid 3rd round pick.
I have to laugh when I read some of the remarks about this draft. For decades, we have wanted to have smart talent evaluators, cutting edge technology, a great development environment and respected shrewd decision makers. We finally have all of those. We even have a rocket scientist running our modeling, who has been successful in two other exemplary organizations. And people still question their intelligence and call this a stupid draft.
They do not play it safe. They gambled a bit here, no doubt. They had a plan, and they executed it. I wanted Dax Fulton, Jared Kelley and/or Cole Wilcox, but they would have taken up a large amount of slot money. The rest of the draft would have been underslot guys. We’ll see in a few years which approach was better. Elias wanted to add more quality depth to the system, and I think they accomplished that. I remain a big fan of Martin’s offensive game, but I think we look back in the years to come and find that Kjerstad has more production and was a better value.
@Sports Guy it’s nice to have you back!
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On 6/12/2020 at 9:56 AM, Roll Tide said:
Not really .... If a guy struggles against high school pitching I'm betting they struggle at college of the Milb level. IE....If a guy can't handle HS fastball he probably can't do so at AAA or the majors
That is just not true. “Struggles” against HS pitching can be due to many things. Depends on where you play HS ball. At Stoneman Douglas, which is just outside Miami, it’s about as competitive an environment as it gets in HS anywhere in the world. And teams usually do not often pitch to big hitters like Mayo.
What exactly is a “high school fastball?” The guys who hit well all summer on 86-96 mph, usually struggle to hit against slower fastballs of the average HS pitcher, which often hovers around 80 mph or less. These pitchers often throw a lot of junk out of the zone. I’ve seen Riley Greene, Jud Fabian, and many others, struggle to hit against sub-par pitching. Talented competitive kids will chase out of the zone because they are used to being, and expected to be, productive. They want to win, and they try to carry the load. Slow bats hit average HS fastballs, but cannot compete on elite travel ball or showcases.
So, a guy who hits .500 in below average competition is a better prospect than a guy that hits .350 in Florida, Texas, Georgia or California? Yikes. HS stats are not totally meaningless, but they are a small part of the profile and need to be taken in context.
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Within 1-2 years, I believe Kjerstad will be a top 20 prospect. In a normal year, where he would have opened at Aberdeen and likely would have finished at Delmarva, he would have been considerably higher by the Fall list. But this seems fair for their way of ranking players for the moment, based on what they wrote about him pre-draft.
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On 6/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, Frobby said:
1. The guy has cojones of steel. He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.
2. He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend. For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.
3. He won’t reach for a pitcher. If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.
4. He likes athletic players. Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.
5. He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.
That is a great post. I would add that he has an idea of what type of players and pitchers his development staff can work with best. He seems to have a very strong belief in the development staff. That is why he is not shy about drafting position players who need major swing adjustments like Stowers, Watson and Mayo. (Haskins is unorthodox, but I would not mess with him too much.) He likely weighs personality characteristics heavily to determine if kids are coachable, but he clearly believes in his development staff.
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13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think folks are weighing a couple of small sample sizes pretty heavily with regards to Kjerstad.
The 2020 stats are indicative of his improvements in his athleticism, approach and overall hitting process. I see that in his play, albeit in a small amount of games, compared to years past. The tools are legit, and the attitude is great. The only things I take from his 2020 stats is the improved BB/K rate and swing and miss numbers that Brad Ciolek spoke about. And yes, I believe they are right that Kjerstad was about to have a monster year. He worked hard and it shows.They had a good amount of data and scouting reports on him over about 5-6 years.
It’s my opinion to put him #2 in this exercise. Eye of the beholder thing. Adley was #1 before he played a minor league game as well. I admit that I did not consider Kjerstad seriously before the draft. Like everyone else, I assumed it would be Martin or Lacy. I did not do any work on him until after the pick. What I remembered from years past was not what I saw when I looked at his swing. I read up on him much more and understand why Elias selected him.
I like Grayson a lot. My son played against him in travel ball. He improved a ton too the year he was drafted. Nearly everyone here said it was a terrible pick, a reach. I loved the pick.
All of that said, it’s a fun exercise. I get the skepticism about kids that have yet to play pro ball. Especially HS guys. It’s all projection based on limited video and many other people’s observations. I tend to give Elias and his staff the benefit of the doubt. The more I learn about their process, the more I trust it. And I’ve been fooled before, so...
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Ahh that new player smell. He hasn't had a chance to fail yet.
And yet you have a college guy at #2.
Tendencies are never absolute
On the other hand, I consider what he accomplished at Arkansas and Team USA to be significant. Those comments are really for tie-breaking. I think Henderson and Westburg are similar, but I gave the nod to Westburg. I try not to be that guy with a shiny new nickle, but yeah, we all have done it.
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1. Adley Rutschman C#
2. Heston Kjerstad OF* - yes, I think he is more valuable than anyone not named Rutschman
3. Grayson Rodriguez RHP
4. D.L. Hall LHP
5. Austin Hays OF - just stay healthy and he is a star
6. Ryan Mountcastle LF/1B
7. Mike Baumann RHP - this large human could be our best pitcher in a few years
8. Yusniel Diaz OF - this was to be the year he stayed healthy and put it together...sigh
9. Dean Kremer RHP -
10. Hunter Harvey RHP
11. Keegan Akin LHP - I think he is better than his stats from 2019, I give him the benefit of the doubt for now that he was working on things out of his comfort zone
12. Zac Lowther LHP
13. Adam Hall SS - I am a fan of his overall game
14. Jordan Westburg SS - played well in the best college conference, believe he will make adjustments to drive the ball and make more consistent contact
15. Gunnar Henderson SS* - need to see more from him above GCL; mediocre HS competition, but solid in Summer circuit
16. Ryan McKenna OF - I believe he will get back to a more gap-to-gap approach. Trying to lift the ball is not his game.
17. Drew Rom LHP - looking forward to the gradual growth of this young man
18. Bruce Zimmerman LHP - really impressed by what I have seen in him, velo increase last year too
19. Kyle Stowers OF* - not sure what to think here just yet, but draft status and tools have him here
20. Hudson Haskin OF - biggest wildcard, but he hits the ball hard and plays hard
21. Anthony Servideo SS* - hopefully the 2020 version is who he is
22. Darell Hernaiz SS - future star
23. Alex Wells LHP
24. Brenan Hanifee RHP
25. Zach Watson OF - exciting tools, but needs to get a little stronger and make more consistent contact
26. Coby Mayo 3B - tools to be a top 5 talent in a few years
27. Gray Fenter RHP - may end up a back end BP guy, but encouraging year in 2019
28. Carter Baumler RHP - looking forward to his gradual growth
29. Luis Ortiz LHP - Elias/Koby strike it rich here. His video is impressive. Long way to go...but wow
30. Raul Rangel RHP - when this young man puts on some good weight, he is going to be a really good one. Saw a small amount of video on him, but I have read where a few people raved about him in the Tricky League.
I tend to give a little more credence to the player who has done it at higher levels. For instance, I have Westburg over Henderson because Westburg played two plus years at Miss State, while Henderson was in HS in Alabama in mediocre competition and a little GCL. I also value everyday players slightly over pitchers, generally, because of the risk involved. Weems says they all break, and he is right. The last two, I went with pure talent and projection. I wanted to see what that was like to actually list international talent.
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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
You think he jumped from a 40 runner to a 50/55 runner? In one offseason? That's a huge jump right?
I think the 40 grade was a bit low for previous years, but yes, he has improved his body a great deal. Probably from a 45 to a 55. I don't have a stopwatch on him, but my eyes see he is much more explosive in his movement.
Dave Van Horn, his coach at Arkansas, said he had been working very hard to improve his explosiveness and overall athleticism. I have been watching him since he was a Freshman. I liked what I saw then, but he was below average athletically, although a good young power bat with average defense. He has really improved. All of these journalist rankings were based on previous years reports.
Take a look at the video from this year. Look back at past years video and you can see the tremendous improvement in his body and athleticism.
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9 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:
Out of curiosity, where are you seeing a 40 runner?
As one example source, MLB pipeline has him graded as a 45 runner. Also, has him as a average defender with a plus arm.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/heston-kjerstad-677008
Hit - 45
Power - 60
Run - 45
Arm - 55
Field - 50
Overall - 55He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him.
And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early.
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3 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:Good post. Speaking of Keith Law...
Elias is a bright GM with a quality staff and as you said, time will tell how this draft plays out. Hopefully you and others can understand how I would be disappointed that we didn't take Keith Law's (and other's) #1 rated player (Austin Martin) and one lauded as among the best hitters and competitors in the draft in a long time. That idea had me excited. That's why I'm disappointed. However, in a couple of years we may look back and see that this was a good decision and worked out very well for us. That's what Elias gets paid to do... make important decisions. Sharing my thoughts was important to me, yet I still support Elias, as you do.
I am glad you shared your thoughts. It creates discussion here. I mean no disrespect to you at all. And I don’t disagree with you completely. I just wanted to share my thoughts as well and point out that these rankings are flawed in most years. And this year, much more so. I am just asking you to put the rankings aside for a minute and look at the latest video.
When I watched the 2020 video on these guys, especially Kjerstad, I was impressed. Kjerstad is much faster than a 40 runner, for instance. He may be just a tick above average. I’ll throw a 55 on him. He even bunted for base hits and stretched singles into doubles. He obviously has worked hard and he is much leaner. His swing is more controlled and the ball is flying off the bat. His swing and miss was cut down significantly. I honestly, aside from track record, do not see much difference between Torkelson and the current version of Kjerstad in the way of hit or power tools. My non-professional eyes tell me that. I know many here will mock me for this, but I truly believe that. Look at the video in the Kjerstad thread. He definitely is much improved over last year.
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The “rankings” that all of us refer to are made by people who are not scouts, aside from Keith Law. Jim Callis, Jon Mayo, the Baseball America crew, etc...they are journalists. They hang out at prep tournaments and showcases and glean information from scouts. They text people and correspond in other ways to gather information given to them by those who form educated opinions. They do a great job disseminating information to the readers and listeners. But opinions vary.
Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, Brad Ciolek and the rest of the professional scouting staff put a lot of work in this Spring behind the scenes. So did every other team’s staff. Probably not as much info sharing. Maybe even more misinformation than in past years. This was a year where info was particularly proprietary.I was surprised at some of the picks, sure. But I am not upset at all. I trust Mike Elias to do right by the Baltimore Orioles. The first four picks were not “sexy,” but Mayo and Baumler seem like they were solid over slot guys. I like their profiles. Guys that we likely would have seen rise if they had played their senior years. They were taken in rounds where the Orioles felt good about the risk after getting their guys earlier who would not have been there in rounds 4-5.
In fact, all of their college picks were having good or great starts to 2020 as well. The spin has been that they were all about to blow up. We’ll never know about that. Did they all make meaningful development strides in the off season? Should we discount the numbers due to small samples? IDK.
Like every year, we’ll remember to judge this draft in 4-5 years. I feel strongly that Heston Kjerstad was not the 10th best player as I keep reading here. I have him around 4-5. The signability goes into the value, sure. I wanted Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy, but Kjerstad and Veen were next for me. And if Martin, and his agent Boras, wanted 8.4 million, I would pass too in the Orioles situation. Maybe they did not believe in him as an infielder, and not a top shelf CF. Maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore, who knows. I think it is certainly possible that when all is said and done, we will get as much production from Kjerstad as we would have from Martin. They just go about it in different ways.
I welcome the new Orioles to the fold. I look forward to seeing how this draft works out and seeing our boys back on the field. I need them back on the field.
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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Thanks for posting this. My quick take.
Arm strength is a plus obviously sitting 94-97, but the fastball is pretty straight and his command is pretty bad, and doesn't seem to be able to pitch to glove side very well. The breaking ball is below average and would need a lot of improvement.
The change is really good with drop and fade away from lefties.
Command is overall was well below average and he changed his mechanics a bit on the breaking ball at least once trying to get more bite.
If I could get this kind of arm and get him signed reasonably in the 3rd round I would, but I'd much prefer to go with another college arm like Chris McMahon.
Yeah, that wasn't his best look there. He's a HS kid, and was over-throwing there like many do at PG events. He seemed fluid at first, and then some effort came in. He did telegraph the breaking ball, but that is fixable. The change was solid there, nice depth and fade.
Not much projectability there. Fairly mature physically. He would need to take it slow, but I think this is a kid that Chris Holt would do wonders for. Depends on what his number is.
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I like what they have done so far. I had not seen the video of Kjerstad from 2020, and I like what I saw. I have no problem with his swing at all. The leg kick, meh, if it works for him, fine. But he looks like he was recognizing some pitches better. His power is top of the charts to all fields. Westburg is a talented kid whose best days are ahead of him. Not a true comp, but he reminds me some of DJ Lemahieu, with a good bit more speed and athleticism.
I think they do save somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 million, maybe a bit more, on Kjerstad. That is just a speculative guess. Westburg is probably not much below slot, if at all. Elias said they were looking at some pitchers at 30, but they were selected before they picked, Bitsko perhaps.
So, at 39, I take Fulton. That is not because he is the best player available, though he would have been if healthy. I think he will be over slot, but not as much as Wilcox or maybe Kelley. That might leave him out there for another team to take, so grab him now. Wilcox and/or Kelley will likely be there at 74. Wilcox might be in the top 5 players picked in 2021 in he returns to UGA. His leverage is strong, but not as much of a track record as a starter hurts him a bit.
Chris McMahon is very interesting, and I bet he's gone in round 2. You could do well to go that route, but may lose Fulton.
Tanner Witt and Masyn Winn are two more high end HS guys that are interesting, but I have not seen much video there.
Cole Henry (LSU) is another college arm I like, though there is a history of elbow issues. He is a sophomore, so he can go back to school. JT Ginn is out there as well.
We don't know what their bonus demands are, but Elias does. This may turn out to be an incredible haul. If they come away with Dax Fulton and Chris Wilcox, I would be elated to have four first round talents.
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8 hours ago, MachoMachadoMan said:
My biggest issue with Veen as the #2 pick in this strategy is he's a high schooler. If we go with this strategy, it's likely to target at least one high upside, riskier high schooler at 30 or 39. In this scenario from Jammer we're taking three high school players. I get that Elias reportedly has a long leash, but we were hoping the window for a competitive team starts to open in 2022 when we're hoping Rutschman, Mountcastle, Hall, and Rodriguez are all on the ML roster and beginning to contribute. Gonzalez, Hancock, Kjerstad could all feasibly follow in short order as part of this core. I don't know if we want to come out of this draft with our hopes kicked entirely down to 2024 before we see anyone at OPACY.
Yeah, Veen was an example more than the only guy. Obviously, they think Kjerstad is the way to go. Probably had a lot to do with many factors, but they wanted to save some money for 30/39.
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:
Everything Elias has said has been hedged to some degree. I think he’s likely to go BPA, but I won’t be surprised if he adopts an underslot strategy. And I guarantee you that, no matter what he does, he will say he took the player he liked the best of the available choices, regardless of whether it’s true.
This is where I’m at. He did not say he wouldn’t go underslot, not in the interviews I have seen. He said it would be difficult because of the limited number of rounds to potentially spread the savings out. In other words, if he misses the over slot candidates he wants at 30/39, then what does he do with the saved money. He would look bad to a point.
And the GM speak of Elias is polished. It will be the BPA according to their board. -
2 hours ago, hoosiers said:
Cecconi would be an excellent addition. I have seen multiple outlets thinking the Twins will take him toward the end of the first round.
The only real knock on him is that he does not have a track record of durability. The stuff and his frame are excellent. I know the young man a little bit as my son played against him for years both travel and high school.
Sophomore eligible too, so not sure if signability is an issue. -
The comments from Elias about Correa’s selection that I have seen always refer to him as being the “best player available.” He has even said that other teams had Correa at the top of their board as well. He happened to get a lesser deal, despite the fact that the Astros had him ranked #1 on their board. So, his recent comments do not cement anything in my mind about taking Martin or Torkelson. I believe what he says about taking who they think is the BPA. Whether it is the more common two, or Gonzalez or Veen.
I do not think, based on many comments around the industry, that they will take a pitcher. Too much risk when there are is very good hitters available.
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21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
That's kinda how prospects work
He's only 17. I'm not saying he's a stud but he's fallen in the draft rankings accordingly. If he's there at 39 or 74, why not?
Its just a lot of risk based on projected value. If he was a real solid defender and had a better floor, maybe I could see it. There just isn't a consistent track record there of hitting against even solid level competition. Small town kid from Mississippi, who trimmed his body nicely before this Spring. But apparently was not showing the same power early in the season before COVID. This is the kind of kid that teams want to see prove himself in college. I doubt Sig's modeling would be favorable to him. I hope the kid has a great college career and ends up the next Torkelson. It is just too much risk, especially at picks 30/39 to take a probable 1B who may not hit enough to get to Frederick.
BA has him ranked at #90. Nah, I pass in favor of those with more likely overall value.
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9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Blaze Jordan dropping that far is interesting, he was looked at the next Harper at one point. I wouldn't mind if we drafted him.
Some like him, some don't. A ton of raw power in BP, but a lot of swing and miss in games. For me, he has to prove he can hit higher level pitching consistently. Probably a 1B profile, but maybe a corner OF if he works hard.
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On 6/4/2020 at 8:26 AM, Greg Pappas said:
My preferred list of potential picks at 30/39, excluding Nick Bitsko, whom I expect to be gone before 30:
HS SS Ed Howard, HS LHP Dax Fulton, HS RHP Justin Lange, HS 3B Jordan Walker, HS RHP Tanner Witt, HS RHP Carson Montgomery, Miss St SS Jordan Westburg, Miami RHP Chris McMahon, HS SS Carson Tucker, HS 1B Blaze Jordan
That's a really good list. The mock picks from 10-29 seem all over the place. I think you are right about Bitsko being gone, but Mick Abel (not likely) or Jared Kelley could be there at 30. I would add: Bobby Miller RHP (Louisville-would be a redraft), Slade Cecconi RHP (MIami-another redraft), Nick Loftin SS (Baylor), Cole Henry RHP (LSU), Cole Wilcox RHP (Georgia-Over slot?), Drew Romo C (Tx. HS), Jared Jones RHP/OF (Ca. HS) and Kevin Parada C (Ca. HS).
Parada is a bit of a sleeper here. He seems to be rising because of the bat in high-level competition and a solid catcher who can stay behind the plate. There is a solid amount of Perfect Game data on him. Romo is supposed to be an excellent defensive catcher who is hit over power right now. And Walker is supposed to be a above average to plus athlete and a 60 runner, so maybe he is a corner OF down the road.
As to what I think the Orioles may do, I hope they have Dax Fulton pegged at #39. If other teams are showing serious interest from 31-38, then take him at 30. I think his profile and upside is that of a top 5 pick in three years if he goes to college. He may be the only risk they take in the top 3 rounds.
I would love to see Ed Howard there at #30, they may grab him. Tanner Witt and Jared Kelley may turn their heads as well, but that might be too much risk if they plan on Fulton at #39. I think they go college otherwise. Cole Wilcox is my top pick of the more likely possibilities at pitcher, but he may be over slot as well. I like Westberg a lot, but Loftin is real solid across the board and was driving the ball more this Spring. Maybe they can save a little of the slot for these two at #30? Or maybe they stay around slot. There is not much out there about Fulton's bonus demands, but an assumption about over slot based on where he would be if he were healthy.
This is one of the more fun drafts in recent years for me. Do the Orioles stay with more of a college approach? Or is Sig's data base and modeling advanced enough now to be bolder with HS talents with less recent looks?
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Boras can't do a lot here. It would very likely cost any of these top picks a lot of money to not sign and go back to school for a senior year.
I'd be fine with picking 1-3 in next year's stacked draft.
Yes, agreed. But if he can save a little of the slot amount at #2, then great. Maybe get Boras to agree to split the difference between picks #2 and 3. Save a few hundred thousand and use it at 30/39. To me, that is the goal. Boras is likely saying Martin should be paid at full slot, maybe over.
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43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Don't overthink it. Martin. Torkelson if Martin somehow goes first. I think they are just negotiating whether directly or indirectly by suggesting the underslot scenario. If Martin drops down a spot or two he loses money. So having him think that they are trying to save some money on the #2 slot. Just my guess and hope. Lacy sounds good but there is so much risk on pitcher's health and the control is not A+. I wouldn't hate Lacy at #2 but I'm not for it. The HS OF is a corner guy so it's all about the bat. Martin is more proven and can likely play 3B, 2B or CF. Martin seems like a no brainer to me if he's there. He would be a complete no brainer if he was a SS. Semi no brainer at 2B. Even at 3B or CF, his overall games seems to be the best of anyone, HS or college.
This is mostly where I am. I think we will see Martin taken. He is the best player available. His bat will play anywhere. If he was a legit proven SS, he would likely not be available at #2. I would play it safe and take Martin
The Boras factor certainly is in play. Perhaps they are trying to save as much of the slot as they can for picks 30/39, which, in my opinion, are huge in this draft. Even if this speculation saves 300-500k from the #2 pick, it is worth it. There may certainly be some serious HS talent there, and it will not come cheap. Then they could maybe go underslot at rounds 3/4/5.
Zac Veen, however, may end up being much more athletic than most think. He is still growing and developing. When he gets more coordinated and comfortable in his own body, and gets stronger, I can see the Bellinger comps. He is fluid and loose, just needs to add more strength and explosiveness with training and nutrition. If Elias goes this route, it is risky, sure. But I won’t be upset with it if he saves some money and takes top sliding talents with 30/39.
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@hoosiers Good response. I agree that it would be very unlikely. We may not see either one make it to pick 30. This hypothetical scenario is the only way I would not take Martin or Lacy at pick #2. We would be fortunate to take Martin and get Fulton at #30, and that is what I hope for.
We could take Martin, and then a college starter at #30, like a Cade Cavalli or a Bobby Miller, if either is still there. And then hope Fulton is still there at #39. We’d have to go underslot somewhere, maybe the remaining three picks.
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So, a hypothetical draft of:
1 (pick #2) Zac Veen OF*
2 (pick #30) Nick Bitsko RHP
3. (pick #39) Dax Fulton LHP
Would you be good with this haul in the first two rounds? You would likely have to save some money at #2 to take the next two, assuming they are there. That would be the only way I do not take Austin Martin or Asa Lacy. You would have to not worry about the competitive cycle beginning in less than five years. Bitsko and Fulton were top 15-20 talents overall, Fulton had the TJ surgery but he is the top HS LHP despite that.
Personally, I would do this. What say you?
Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100
in Orioles Talk
Posted
The current organization chose Kjerstad and found more value in that selection for a variety of reasons. They are a talented well-respected group that appear to be working in the same direction to build organizational talent depth. It’s a huge shift from the past, certainly.
The previous organization had talented people, but it seemed they were often working at cross purposes and about as dysfunctional as it gets. There was Buck’s guys, and there was Duquette’s guys, and even some Angelos butt-kissing guys. They did not have the resources to do the things that Duquette really wanted to do. Duquette wanted to get into the international market extensively, but was told not to pursue it. They diverted most resources to a failed last-ditch effort to compete with mediocre talent. As we know, it was a train wreck. We all clamored for the kind of organization we now have.
Whatever people think of this draft, so be it. We’ll see, in time, if it was the right call to pursue six guys that will be in your top 30-35 players (two in the top 10-15 now, and upside for all of them to be top 10-15 guys down the road). Or should they have gone for 3 in their top 10-15, and go well under slot on the rest and be organization depth? I would just add that they seem to not want to risk significant investment into pitchers, in general. (Insert @weams quote here.) And we don’t know where they actually value the first four players they drafted. When they sign, we’ll see who is under slot significantly. I expect Westburg (Boras client) to be at around slot. I expect Kjerstad and Haskins to be under slot a good bit, probably Servideo too. But that does not mean they did not have them ranked high on their board.
And they did not draft players for who they are now, but who they project they will be in the years to come. This organization knows what they develop well, and they draft those types of players. Perhaps down the road, they will be drafting deeper in the draft and take a chance occasionally on higher-risk arms like Fulton, Kelley and Wilcox. But only after establishing a deeper talent pool overall.