larrytt

[EDIT: This was in a different thread I started. The moderators moved it here. So my response below doesn't make sense out of context.] This has been a disappointing thread. I brought up the topic of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. There have been exactly two relevant responses buried among the many responses so far, where DrinkinWithFermi brought up FIP (Fielding Independence of Pitcher), and ChosenOne21 brought up similar ideas. Those were intelligent responses. But the rest? Over and over I’m told (often with great sarcasm) two things: 1. There are too many Cease threads 2. All my answers are in the other Cease threads I hate to bring facts and logic to an online discussion, but here goes. There is only one other Cease thread. One. Uno. Singular. I checked back through 30 pages of discussions going back to last September and the name “Cease” appears in exactly one other thread title. So all the talk about too many Cease threads is silly. [EDIT: It turns out there were other Cease threads as "recently" as November, but they all died out and none of them show up in the last 30 pages of discussion here. The ones from September were ongoing threads. So all this talk of numerous Cease threads isn't accurate, since other then those from long ago, this is the only one.] So, all my answers are in the other Cease thread? Great. There are over 3,500 responses on 235 pages there. If I read them at one per minute, it would take nearly 60 hours to go through them. Thanks, but no thanks. I did read the first page of responses, and there was no mention of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers. None. So, I thought this would be a good way to ask the question and actually discuss this specific question of Cease versus current Orioles pitchers, as opposed the apparently wide-ranging discussion on in those 3,500 responses in that other (singular) thread that’s actually about Cease versus other non-Orioles pitchers, but I was wrong. [EDIT: And there are still people posting that I should have read through the now 3,600+ postings here rather than ask in a new thread. Lots of unthinking sarcasm.] So, I will Cease (pun intended) posting questions on this discussion thread. I had a good run a number of years ago when I used to post those “Top Ten” lists and join in many other discussions, and I joined in a few times this past year and was getting excited about the upcoming season, but things have really changed here. But feel free to pile on with those sarcastic responses about all these Cease threads that don’t exist and telling people who are new to the current discussion that they have to wade through 3,500 postings to find their answers.

There is only one thread about Cease in the last ten pages of threads, going back to November. There's only one current one about him, with 3.5K replies on 233 pages, so things get rather lost there. This is a different topic than the other Cease thread. The other one was about Cease versus other pitchers we might get. This one is about Cease versus current Orioles starters. Yes, it probably meanders, but with 3.5K responses, I doubt if many are really able to keep up with all the replies. This one is very specific about the topic. If you don't want to join this thread, then Cease posting here. Please don't try to derail it with the first response, before anyone even has a chance to respond, without even referring to what's actually in the posting. If there is no interest in the topic, then let it Cease on its own. So my answer to your question is . . . yes. Since you disagree, I suggest you go to the one with 3.5K replies and make it 3.5K+1. To use a metaphor, I think there are too many Starbucks, but when I see a new one opening up, I don't spend my time in front of it calling out, "Do we really need a new Starbucks?" (Or, "Cease this coffeehouse abomination!")

There’s lots of talk and rumors about trading away top prospects to bring Dylan Cease, an “ace,” to Baltimore. Yes, he was great for one year in 2022 (2.20 ERA, his only year as an “ace”) and also good in 2021 (3.91, first full season, not ace level), but in 2023 he had a 4.58 ERA with an atrocious 1.418 WHIP. Many consider his 2022 somewhat of a fluke since he led the league in walks but somehow got away with it for one year. (He was third in MLB in ERA, but only 20th in WHIP at 1.11.) So, I’m looking at the Orioles current potential starters. There are health and stamina concerns with Means and Wells, which means we need depth, but if healthy, you want to start your five best starters. Looking mostly at ERA, here are my rough rankings: 1. Kyle Bradish 2.83 2. Grayson Rodriguez 4.35 (2.58 in second half) 3. John Means 2.66 in 23.2 innings (3.62 in 2021, missed 2022 with Tommy John surgery) 4. Dean Kremer 4.12 (3.23 in 2022) 5. Tyler Wells 3.64 (4.25 in 2022) 6. Dylan Cease 4.58 (4.30 first half, 4.96 second half) Maybe Cease will recover from his 2023 pitching woes, but until he shows his previous form, he seems to have pitched himself out of anything close to ace-hood and is more like a #5 starter, and a #6 starter on a contending team. So . . . can someone explain to me as if I were a child why he’s still regularly referred to as an “ace” or why you believe he should start ahead of any of the other five (other than that if we trade for him, we are obligated to do so)? But we do need to get another dependable starter, but more like a #3 inning-eater type.

You can do both. I'll add that to the opening post.

Assuming the Orioles do not sign or resign any free agents (so no Frazier and Hicks), and so using only current Orioles (major or minor leagues), who are your 13 (or 14?) 2024 position players, their position, and role - starter, platoon, utility. (If Jackson Holliday isn't one of your starting infielders, you got some serious explaining!!!) You can choose to designate a current position player for a trade for a pitcher and so leave him off your roster. Optional - your batting orders against righty and lefty pitchers. Also optional - you can put what you think SHOULD happen, and what you think WILL happen.

It's the first time they've won 100 games without Jim Palmer on the team!

Jorge Mateo is one of the fastest runners in baseball, and Cedric Mullins and Ryan McKenna are also pretty fast. I remember Al Bumbry as being super fast. Luis Aparicio, Brady Anderson, and Brian Roberts were also fast, but probably not Mateo fast. If you lined up all the fastest Orioles since 1954 for a 100 meter sprint, who would win or finish in the top five?

Maybe I'm the only one, but I keep thinking, if we go, say, 5-1 the rest of the way, and the Braves stumble a bit and go 2-4 . . . we tie them for best record in the majors. Winning the division is what's important right now, but tying for (or having) the best record would be a fun thing to achieve. Sweeping the Nats would be a good start.

In case anyone's interested in the probability, in a 4-game series, assuming each game is 50-50 (not reality, of course, but close enough), there are 16 possible outcomes, leading to five scenarios: 4-0: 1 chance in 16 (6.25%) 3-1: 4 chances in 16 (25%) 2-2: 6 chances in 16 (37.5%) 1-3: 4 chances in 16 (25%) 0-4: 1 chance in 16 (6.25%)

This seems like a good place to point out that since the Allstar Break, the O's lead the AL East in runs, RBI, OPS, AVE, doubles, triples, hits, sac, SF, and (defensively) turned the most double plays. They are second in ERA only to Toronto. They lead the entire AL in run differential at +79, with the Rays second at +51. When anyone questions whether the O's are really as good as the Rays, remember that we lead them in ALL of these categories since the Allstar Break. And that is why the O's have gone 41-21 since the Allstar Break, while the Rays have gone 35-24.

They have Kjerstad at DH and Santander in RF. Is Santander better defensively?

Adley's OBP for September: .389. OPS: .804. (That includes tonight.)

12. Cedric Mullins is so fast that he was challenged to a race by the Flash. Because they wear baseball caps when they play baseball, the Flash (Jorge Mateo) and Superman (Cedric) didn't recognize each other. 11. Cedric Mullins is so fast that when he runs the bases, he breaks light speed and we go back in time, which is why this year we’re really watching the 1966, 1970, and 1983 Orioles. 10. Cedric Mullins is so fast that Orioles pitchers no longer bother with baseballs. They just grab Cedric and release him, and a split second later he's in the catcher's glove. 9. Cedric Mullins is so fast that when he runs the bases, the friction turns the infield into a small, fiery star as he circles it. Yes, Cedric Mullins is an anagram for Circle Mild Sun. 8. Cedric Mullins is so fast that the Red Sox tried to claim him, not realizing his socks were only red because they were on fire. Then Cedric picked up the pace, the socks went white hot, and the White Sox tried to claim him. 7. Cedric Mullins is so fast that the first time the Orioles saw him in spring training he homered, so they signed him to the Orioles, then he raced out and caught his own home run, and because it was just a long out, the Orioles sent him back to the minors. Eventually he broke his habit of catching his own home runs, though he sometimes mournfully watches them go out, just dying to run them down. 6. After watching an O’s game, Chuck Norris sheepishly replaced his name everywhere with “Cedric Mullins.” 5. Cedric Mullins leads the AL East with an OPS of .975. (For you non-stat people, OPS for stars like Cedric means OPS Plus Strikeout percentage.) 4. Cedric Mullins has stolen exactly 90 bases in his career - he stores them in his mancave at home - and so has been indicted 90 times, exactly one behind the combined indictments of all 46 US presidents in history. Ironically, he has never been indicted for the 26 times he’s been caught stealing, since in those cases he didn’t steal a base. (And let's NOT turn this into a political discussion unless it's about the Yale star first baseman.) 3. Cedric leads the Orioles in OPS on Sundays at 1.023, and (excluding starting catchers) on Thursdays at 1.054. He is a surefire first-ballot addition to the Sunday and Thursday wings of MLB's Hall of Fame. (Just bench him on Tue & Wed - .568 and .452.) 2. When the Orioles went 52-110 in 2021 despite Cedric’s 30 homers and 30 steals, he correctly prophesied that the Orioles were a "Circus I'll Mend." Which, of course, is just an anagram for Cedric Mullins. 1. While the Orioles were flopping in 2021, Salisbury University won the NCAA Championships. There were plans to replace the Orioles Bird with Salisbury's Sammy Seagull. But Cedric vetoed that, pointing out that seagulls can only fly up to 26 mph, which is his average sauntering speed. And so poor Sammy Seagull continues to languish as Salisbury, though he makes occasional appearances at Orioles Hangout.

You're right - fixed! It's "Cool Hands Cano"! -Larrytt

Since Cedric Mullins is your favorite current player, maybe he'll be the subject of a Top Ten list. -Larrytt

10. When they play their “A” outfield of Anthony, Austin, and Aaron (sorry Cedric, you only get a “C”), and throw in Adley at catcher and Adam at second, it’s almost straight A’s! 9. They win even when they play their “B” pitching team of Bradish, Baumann, Bautista, and Bryan Baker, and even their “C” team of Cole, Cano, Cionel, and Coulombe. 8. Bautista (6’8”), Fujinami (6’6”), Gibson (6’6”), Rodriguez (6’5”), and #5 players Cano, Flaherty, Irvin, and Montcastle (all 6’4”) beat the Dream Team in basketball. (Sure, the latter are all about 60 years old, but still...) 7. They dominate the major leagues in third-inning doubles (38) and ninth inning or later sacrifices (8), and they are on track to break the all-time record for third-inning doubles + ninth inning or later sacrifices set by the 1896 Toledo Mud Hens, who won the Interstate League that year with a record of 47-16. (Only one of these statements is not true.) 6. Santander’s 27 home runs is more than Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, or Sammy Sosa ever hit *combined* during their peak years excluding steroid-aided ones. 5. Bradish’s 3.03 ERA makes him the second scariest Orioles starter, but teams run in fear when they face the scariest, 6’4” Jack Flaherty and his 6.66 ERA. Against him, not only are they in danger of losing their souls, but all they can do is strike out or hit weak grounders, nothing in the air – after all, Flaherty is just an anagram for “Fly Hater.” 4. “Cool Hands Cano” is the major league leader in holds, which is appropriate since Cano Holds is just an anagram for Cool Hands. (Seriously, let’s start calling him “Cool Hands Cano.”) 3. Few people realize that rookie star Gunnar Henderson lied about his age and is only 17. He spends his free time furiously studying for his high school finals. Early in the season he’d scream “Doh!” when he got his practice math problems wrong and it affected his hitting. But Manager Hyde turned his season around when he banned Gunnar from studying in the dugout. Of course, Brandon Hyde is just an anagram for Ban Nerdy Doh. (Studies show that 97% of readers yelled “Doh!” after reading this.) 2. The Orioles absolutely dominate in T-Ball, leading the American League in both runs scored and OPS (.821 and .881) on Tuesdays and Thursdays. We’ll ignore Wednesdays and Saturdays, where they are #12 both days (.670 and .701). 1. How can the Orioles lose when one of their fans wrote “Soul Testing in Major League Baseball,” “The Pushovers of Galactic Baseball Fame,” and “Mummy at the Bat” (alas, not online – about a non-speaking mummy that becomes a huge baseball star).

What's the most likely infield next year? My tentative list is below, but there's also Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg. I'm also not sure about whether Holliday would be playing second or shortstop. With Jorge Mateo as the backup, that makes Frazier and/or Westburg (also maybe Hicks/McKenna) available to trade for a top starting pitcher or two. (I'm assuming the outfield will most likely be Santander, Mullins, and Hayes, with O'Hearn the DH against righty pitchers and a backup at first and outfield.) However, I haven't been following things closely enough to know if I'm way off on this. 1st Ryan Mountcastle 2nd Jackson Holliday SS Gunnar Henderson 3rd Ramon Urias -Larrytt

I put most of it together last night in about an hour after the Orioles walkoff win. I spent another half hour this afternoon finalizing it. They're fun to do!

12) The M&M Boys, Mullins and Mateo, are 17-1 in stolen bases after 21 games, the best 1-2 combo in the majors. But taking inflation into account, since bases are now 1.44 times larger, they’ve actually stolen 24.48 bases, the first time in history any pair has stolen that amount or been caught 1.44 times. 11) They lead the American League in walks drawn with 92, in walk-offs with three, and walks by pitchers named Kyler with 11. 10) They are tied for second in the American League for most complete games with zero. 9) Tampa Bay is the only team ahead of the Orioles in the AL East, but they won’t last long now that the book “Moneyball” has been banned in Florida for being inappropriate for minors, which is stupid since most minor leaguers are at least 18 years old. 8) The Orioles are the Ninth Inning Nasties with a 1.93 ERA and opposing batting average of .211 in the ninth inning. (We’ll ignore their 9.00 ERA and opposing team batting average of .500 in extra innings.) 7) The Orioles are the Third Inning Thrashers as they lead or are tied for the lead in the American League in slugging, on base percentage, OPS, runs, RBIs, home runs, doubles, total bases, walks, stolen bases, sacrifice flies, and sacrifice bunts in the third inning. Yep, the third time’s the charm. Of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room (and we’re not talking Tyler Wells, 6’8” and 260 lbs) is that, after 21 games, they’ve yet to triple in the third. (We’ll also ignore their first, sixth, eighth, and ninth inning batting averages of .203, .189, .225, and .217.) 6) In this era of power baseball, the Orioles lead the American League in the most important stat of all, with four sacrifice bunts. 5) At 14-7, the Orioles are on pace to go 108-54, their best record since 1970 when they also had that record. But the 2023 Orioles are much better than the 1970 Orioles. And while those 1970 Orioles are around 80 years old, they’re still better than the 2023 Royals and Athletics. 4) Adley Rutschman leads American League catchers in OPS at .891, an appropriate number as it commemorates the deaths in 891 AD of the Chinese warlords Chen Yan and Gu Yanlang, clubbed to death by Rutschman during his minor league years. He’s also the staunchest Oriole, which is why his last name is just an anagram for “Mr. Staunch.” 3) The other 29 teams invested their money in Bitcoin, Twitter, and Bed Bath & Beyond. By the All-Star game they’ll be selling all their best players to the Orioles. 2) The Orioles pitched 34 consecutive scoreless innings. The streak could have continued all season. However, it was embarrassing the rest of the country, and everyone was getting envious of Baltimore’s greatness. So Baltimore Congressman Kweisi Mfume bribed them to give up some runs. And so, the only reason the scoreless streak ended was because of Orioles Congressmen Sins – which, as we all know, is just an anagram for More O’s Scoreless Innings. 1) Mountcastle has hit six home runs so far, all with calibrated accuracy. All went into orbit and will soon fall back to Earth over Tampa Bay where they will take out their five starters (2.54 combined ERA) and a player to be named later. -Larry Hodges