theocean
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Posts posted by theocean
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16 hours ago, SteveA said:
It's a guiding principle of the rebuild, so you will keep hearing it for a while.
After 14 years of patching in Jay Paytons and Cesar Izturiss and Mike DeJeans and that ilk to try to turn 63 win teams into 71 win teams (and usually failing to get to 71 wins anyway) I'm still very much on board with this plan. Build a great farm system from the ground up like Tampa and St Louis has, with great state of the art player development and teaching practices. Once it's in place you stand a chance of having a winner for a LONG time like the Cardinals have and like the Astros appear to be on their way to having.
I voted no in this particular poll because I think we should be able to get some reasonable amount of return for Villar. But I'm still on board with the philosophy.
I agree with you - the goal is to create a system that can sustain a winner over a long period of time. I think the Orioles really should be looking at the Cardinals as a franchise to emulate, given they have similar markets.
But, I really disagree with what I bolded. 1998-2011 was so terrible because the front office was poorly managed and just straight up made terrible decisions. There aren't only two alternatives here: either tank or sign the 2020 version of Jay Payton.
Free Agency is really advantageous to teams right now. There's no reason why the O's can't spend a relatively small amount of money to make the team much better - and then also have new assets to trade for prospects. That's something I think Elias should be doing, instead of throwing away $800,000 at the Nate Karns of the world.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Easy there fella. If he gets nothing for Villar, I won't like this move, but Elias has done many things to rebuild this organization from the ground up. This has never been about the major league product for now, but I think you are allowing your emotions to blind yourself from all of the new systems and information he's put into the minors. While I agree the jury is still out on Elias overall (it would be for any GM one year into his reign), this would be his first black mark if he ends up giving Villar away, and even then, it really won't effect the time frame to get back to being a winner.
This is a good point - whatever happens with Villar probably isn't going to have any impact long-term. I don't think anybody expects Villar to bring back some mega-prospect or for the Orioles to extend him. So, it's not like this is going to push back the rebuild a year or something.
The controversy surrounding this issue has more to do with opinions on tanking, the health of professional baseball as a sport, and whether fans really want to engage with a really long rebuild. Which stirs up emotions and really goes beyond inside-the-lines baseball stuff. It's been really interesting to hear everyone's takes; I think they're all valid. Ultimately, it's up to the Baltimore Orioles to be able to feel the pulse of the fanbase and whether they think they can come out the other side of a scorched-earth rebuild in better shape than they were before.
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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:
I'm just quoting the link you sent when I asked for a source. Teams have more expenditures than player salary.
Forbes hasn't done 2019 yet, but I'd imagine that operating income is higher than 2018, but income definitely dropped along with expenditures, so I doubt it's a big number.
I wouldn't rely one Forbes too much, they're known to guesstimate numbers. And, I wouldn't really put much stock into operating income or whatever - any company does creative accounting to make it look like they made as little money as possible to reduce their tax bill.
But frankly, it doesn't really matter. Whether they have a ton of money or are pinching pennies, this move is pretty bad from a public relations standpoint. No matter what happens, the Orioles come out looking like a greedy corporation and that doesn't really fly in a blue collar town like Baltimore.
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6 minutes ago, atomic said:
Roch now has a blog post about how Bundy's 5.7 million dollar estimate arbitration salary is steep territory for a rebuilding team. I guess he will be traded or released by today. I wonder how much money the son's want to take out of the franchise.
I think this move made me finally except the truth that rooting for a multi-million-dollar organization is completely illogical and absolutely stupid.
It'd be like me rooting for a movie studio to make a profit on Battlefield Earth 2 or something. Like why do I care so much about paying $8 a beer and $20 a ticket to watch this un-entertaining crap? I'm not a kid, I shouldn't care so much about whether a bunch of millionaires hit a ball with a bat better than a bunch of other millionaires.
Last year was absolutely the least I've ever paid attention to the Orioles or baseball. This year, instead of wasting time and money on a crap team that is no fun to watch, I think I might, like, do something that actually makes my life better lol. I dunno, maybe fishing? Gardening? This already feels so liberating.
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3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
I’ve never seen many informed takes on Roch’s twitter replies.
Those people have money. They're deciding how to spend it. And collectively, they have far more money than the people who think-they-know-everything on the Hangout.
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34 minutes ago, Spl51 said:
The fact that you think this cratering is a plan and not forced on them given the circumstances, show that you haven't been paying attention. This is the beginning of the process to get to a new system, not the middle of it.
He's clearly been paying attention. He just doesn't agree with it. The Orioles' new process is by no means a slam-dunk to success.
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2 hours ago, oriole said:
I hope you’re right. I’m just having trouble imagining any team would give up anyone with actual upside to a guy who not only below average but starting the arbitration process. If they do, that’s great and I’ll be happy.
He's a young, affordable pitcher with two years of control. He throws innings. There's reason to believe he could be pretty good if he can figure out a way to limit homeruns - which might get better by just leaving the AL East and Camden Yards.
Not saying Bundy is some great pitcher, but he probably gets $10M+ if he's a free agent. He's got some value.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
The Orioles already have stopped getting worse, having won 7 more games in 2019 than in 2018. I expect them to win more games in 2020 than they won last year. But I don’t expect them to do it by spending a lot of money to acquire veteran players. I expect them to do it because some of their younger players will gradually be maturing and the front office and coaching staff will benefit from having spent 2019 testing players’ capabilities. Do I expect a big leap in the team’s record? No, just modest improvement.
I wouldn't gauge the Orioles being better or worse by their record. Like Elias has said many times, rebuilds aren't linear.
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21 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:
Okay, but you also have to consider the cost to get those additional wins. If we assume that the difference between 45 and 75 wins is 700 thousand fans and each fan spends an average of $40, that's about 28 million in revenue lost. It might be worth considering shooting for 75 wins if we could get there for say, $15 million or so, but I think that would be pretty hard to do in our situation. You'd also have to count for future value lost because of picking lower in the draft...
Maybe you'd be happier and go to more games if the Orioles won 75, but I've got the specter of 1998-2011 looming large. I'd rather they win 45-ish games the next three years and 95-ish the three after that than win 75 games per year over the same timeframe
There's also revenue from improved television ratings. Plus, merchandise and other variables.
I really don't think the O's have to sign the 2020 version of Kevin Millar or Jay Payton to make it 70 wins. It'd be a big help for them to just like not start a bunch of waiver-wire pitchers every other night.
I know everyone is still snakebite from 1998-2011, but those were some really poorly managed teams. We shouldn't be looking at that era as the only alternative to tanking. There's a lot of other possibilities that are easily obtainable.
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23 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
I doubt that fans are much more eager to see a 70 win team than a 40 win one. Feel free to contradict me with average attendance figures over a ten-year span, or so. If we don't tender Jonathan Villar a contract, I doubt enough fans say, "Well that's it, I'm not going to any games this year" to cost us anywhere near the 10 million we saved.
Have you already forgotten the recent Oriole teams that spent and spent on free agents to try to get to .500 before making a run? How did that work out? What brings fans to the game is excellence. And sadly, the best way to get there is to suck for a few years
As far as the Orioles go - 1.3 million fans in 2019. 1.5 million fans in 2018. That dropped off from 2 million fans in 2017 when they went 75-87 and 1.7 million fans when they were 69-93 in 2011.
Lot of other variables there, but I think a 30 win improvement would definitely engage more fans.
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On 11/24/2019 at 7:36 AM, Can_of_corn said:
Isn't every corporation and individual interesting in lowering costs?
Certainly, but I'd say the main goal is increasing profit. If your costs rise, but that leads to more revenue and profit - that's more desirable. Apple or Google certainly have more costs than a mom-and-pop store.
At the end of the day, baseball teams play in publicly funded stadiums and there is a partnership there. Taxpayers pay for a nice, expensive stadium because they not only want a quality-of-life improvement in a professional team for entertainment, but also expect that team to provide economic stimulus to their community beyond their initial investment.
If baseball teams are tanking, not providing that stimulus, and not honestly investing in their teams - there's a problem there. It's up to taxpayers to cry foul on that, and that's what you're starting to see people do.
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10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
It's definitely a make or break year for Diaz. Dude needs to be healthy, dude needs to produce. Per the article, he showed what he can do when healthy but it needs to happen for a full season. I'm not going to make any proclamations on when he'll end up in Baltimore but hopefully he lights it up and forces their decision.
You guys have a boner for Mountcastle, it's weird.
Don't worry, I'm sure everyone will be complaining that we need to trade Mountcastle for two 17-year-old Dominicans in a few years.
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26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm not sold Severino would be an upgrade over whomever else they stick back there when AR doesn't catch. He had a nice first half but in the second half his OPS+ dropped to around his career average (71)
That's true. He's one of the players I'm excited to watch next year to see if he can return to that first half success.
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On 11/23/2019 at 10:23 AM, ScGO's said:
Severino has 5 years of control left. He's cheap and did all the solid things you listed above. Could be an ideal back up for Rutch one day. It will be interesting to see what type of season he has this year.
I think ideally you probably don't watch Adley catching every single day. Severino has a lot of value on this team if the O's plan to let Adley DH or 1B once or twice a week.
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On 11/23/2019 at 6:03 PM, Moose Milligan said:
Past two seasons, I've had an MLB TV subscription and used a VPN to get around the blackout. I've cut the cord, that's how I've had to watch Orioles games.
MASN sucks.
Amen, brother.
I really like watching games within the MLB TV app, I can easily switch between games when the O's are on commercial - or if a game gets out of hand. Highly recommend it to anyone here who is a fan of watching games outside their hometown team.
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On 11/24/2019 at 9:04 AM, Frobby said:
Says you? There are countless examples of teams that cut payroll when they are rebuilding and then spend heavily when they are contending.
Correlation does not imply causation.
I know what you're getting at: the Astros. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the United States, comparable to Dallas and DC:
According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.
From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019, $17M more in payroll, after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances - which one would expect would be able to generate $17M.
Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.
So, where'd all that money go?
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20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't think the difference in net income from folks refusing to go to games because the team non-tendered Villar will equal the difference in salaries between Villar and his replacement.
As for me, I live in Florida so I rarely go to games.
Since when did so many people start rooting for a multi-million-dollar corporation to make a profit in a taxpayer funded stadium?
Villar at most will cost $10M next year. If they cut him, that money isn't going to go in a piggy bank until 2020-whatever when they break it open to sign Adley to an extension.
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4 minutes ago, weams said:
How did we decide that Villar is a 4 WAR player. Is that Like Bryce being a 12 WAR player?
3.9 WAR in 2016. Had a lousy 2017 and then posted 2.7 WAR in 2018.
I think calling him a perennial 4 WAR player isn't quite accurate, but a 2+ WAR player probably is. And, that's not worth nothing. But it isn't worth a ton when he costs $10M and 2B is pretty deep right now across the league.
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31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
He wasn't upset when he was an Astros or a Tiger. He moves to a division rival and now he's upset.
You don't know that at all. Could have been upset and finally felt like he needed to speak up.
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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
Cheating scandal is the most overblown thing ever.
Definitely a big deal. Mike Fiers was willing to go on record because he was so upset about it.
It's not Black Sox big, but anything that degrades the integrity of the game in the eyes of a large portion of MLB's fanbase is a big deal.
Like, can you imagine the media circus if the Nats lost and the Astros won? Can you imagine how many awful think-pieces journalists would be writing about how they don't know how to explain this to their poor children?
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1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
The Nationals losing Harper didn’t hold them back from winning in 2019. The Red Sox trading Betts doesn’t eliminate them from contention in 2020. Red Sox won’t go anywhere if their pitching doesn’t improve even if Betts is on the team.
Betts is actually really good though. Harper's name is bigger than his performance on the field.
If anything, you could say that losing Harper helped the Nationals because they could use that money for a far more valuable asset, Patrick Corbin.
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17 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:
The Red Sox aren't tanking, but are trying to get below the luxury tax payroll. J.D. Martinez didn't opt-out and they need to drop about $28M in payroll.
The Sox firing Dombroski not even a year after a World Series win tells you everything you need to know. They have a bunch of money tied up in some players who are all on the wrong side of 30 and they're starting to feel the pinch.
They owe a 34-year-old David Price a bunch of money for the next three years. They owe an injury-riddled Chris Sale a bunch of money through 2025. They owe JD Martinez a ton of money through 2022. They owe Nathan Eovaldi a bunch of money. They still are paying for Rusney Castillo. They still owe Dustin Pedroia $25M.
If I were the Sox, I'd keep Mookie this year and let it ride. But, if they think they can reload their farm system and coast off the 2018 Championship until some of these contracts go away - I get it.
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10 hours ago, TonySoprano said:
Reading the comments, Gausman is getting a lot of pushback.
It's Twitter, so pushback is the norm. I think in general, this looks really bad for the Astros. They're obviously very talented, but it discredits anything they accomplished to a lot of people, much like Brady/Belichick are forever labeled as cheaters.
Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money.
According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.
I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams.
From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that.
Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.
So, where'd all that money go?