theocean
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12 hours ago, OrioleDog said:
Ignoring the deferred bits we still owe 3/63 to Davis.
I do hope the Rutschman/basket of pitchers group will justify buying other good players to supplement 2022's team, and clearing the $20M obligation that year would help.
This is really more of a math question than a baseball question as he is nearly worthless or worse and so would be the expensive contracts of players other teams might exchange. The Braves/Dodgers trade in which cap was swapped around is the model here. The goal would be to pay our $63M of dead money out before 2022 so that year's MLB payroll, wherever it is set, can be the best it can be.
I was looking at the Giants, who have:
A. 2/47 owed Cueto
B. 2/32 owed Crawford
C. 1/19 owed Samardzija
D. 2/34 owed Belt
I don't think Samardzija or Belt are bad enough, so think A/B the Giants deadest money. Even Cueto and Crawford aren't as hopeless as Davis - they are only $15M extra and might earn that on the field. The 2020 Giants like the 2019 Orioles, are a club that could use Villar (or Crawford for that matter) full time. Who would say no to Villar/Davis for Cueto/Crawford?
I get what you're saying, but I can't see it happening. Davis gets paid a base salary of $17M a year - so there'd have to be a team out there with a Luxury Tax issue that also has disposable players that collectively exceed $17M per year. And then, the total money owed would have to be similar on both sides.
It's my understanding that if Davis was hypothetically traded, the deferred portion of his contract would stay with the Orioles - so he has $51M left over the next three years.
I can't really think of a match. Closest possibility I could think of is if the Yankees traded Ellsbury and his $21M base salary (2/$21M) - but that's still a $9M loss for the Yankees just to get $4M in space under the luxury tax.
Also- even if they cleared Davis' money before 2022, I don't think that would really have any difference on their spending power that year. If anything, waiting to pay Davis is advantageous to the Orioles. It's why you see so much deferred money in big deals - inflation helps to decrease the true-cost of money owed over time.
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On 10/8/2019 at 2:55 PM, interloper said:
I tend to think Hyde's demeanor and maybe lack of on-camera skills makes people underrate him as a manager/coach.
I thought he put together some interesting lineups, pitched Givens in high leverage situations rather than just the 8th or 9th, etc. Players loved playing for him but it sounds like he also knew when to get feisty. Wasn't afraid to give Chris Davis the business after he acted like a child in the dugout. Seemed to give guys proper rest. Nothing really stands out as a huge bonehead move.
What I'm saying is, I bet there's a little more going on under the veneer of "just happy to have a job and we're here to improve". I think he's smarter than he seems. JMO.
I agree, but in an entertainment business - that's part of the job.
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1 hour ago, fansince1988 said:
This is exactly right, and that’s where the money lives in the DMV.
Certainly more wealth, but its not like there isn't enough money to fund the Orioles in Baltimore. The Baltimore-Columbia-Towson area has 2.8M people - that's more than Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Milwaukee. That's pretty comparable to Denver's 2.9M and St. Louis' 2.8M.
If anything, the O's have proven they've been able to outspend and have larger payrolls than teams with much bigger markets: Miami, Tampa Bay, Minneapolis, San Diego.
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1 minute ago, fansince1988 said:
It still boggles my mind that there are people who think the Nats have had a only a marginal impact on Orioles attendance or fandom. My biggest fear after the arrival of the Nats was a world champion Nats team along side a horrible Orioles team. We are close to that now and it will be interesting to see the results. Has anyone mentioned the impact on the value of MASN should the Nats win? Peak value, great time to sell imo.
It definitely had a big impact - but I think that impact was felt years ago. At this point - I think the fanbases are pretty locked in. Even if things were switched and the O's were great and the Nats' were terrible - I doubt Montgomery County and NoVA residents would be rooting for the Orioles. They're clearly a part of the DC community and identify that way.
The only threat to the Orioles' existence is if they are sold to a new owner who specifically bought them to move the team to whatever new city offers the shiniest, new, tax-payer-funded stadium offer. But, you could say that about any team.
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55 minutes ago, weams said:
Why do Orioles need to spend more than Tampa (Bay)?
Because spending money helps? Imagine what this year's Tampa Bay Rays could have done with another $50M.
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On 10/12/2019 at 7:17 AM, Frobby said:
By the way, I’d also be OK if we systematically traded good players about 2 years before FA, once our pipeline is full, the way Tampa has done successfully for many years. This requires a very good farm system and the confidence to evaluate whether your young prospects can do the job. Those are not things the O’s have often had over the last 30 years. Think about how we might have handled Trumbo if we’d had confidence that Mancini would turn out as he did, for example.
The Orioles can fund a much higher payroll than Tampa, so I'm not sure that process is necessary. I think you can look to the Cardinals as an example of how the Orioles could be successful long-term. Elias started there and seems to want to emulate their success, which is mentioned here:
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3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
I'm looking for big contributions from Hays and Mountcastle. At least with Mountcastle's bat. I think Hays should be at an .825 OPS or so with good to great defense. If all breaks well, he could be on the bubble for an All-Star nod.
Stewart, not expecting much.
That's a lot to expect from a rookie.
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1 minute ago, weams said:
You can't tender at 10.5. Sorry. You can't. Not for this team.
And then they'll lose even more fans if they non-tender a 4 WAR player off a 20/20 season. Can't expect fans to want to pay money to watch a team that doesn't even want to pay itself.
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41 minutes ago, Natty said:
Is Bundy worth $5.7M to the Orioles?
That's cheap for a starting pitcher who can throw 160-170 competent innings.
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5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Buck was the right behind Maddon with all the IF shifting. He also pretty much shaped how bullpens are used right now. We made the playoffs because incredible performances from Britton, O’day, Brach, Matusz, Ayala, Strop, Hart, Givens, etc....Even Gausman.
We were forced into a formula of homers and exceptional bullpen performances. As soon as the bullpen performances stopped we collapsed big time. Except for 2014, we were pretty much a band aid team that was playing wayyyyy over are heads. Buck gets a lot of credit for that.
Everyone is mad about the WC game. But all Britton was going to do was extend the game for us by 1-2 Innings at most. Britton was lights out in 2016 but kinda choked in the 2014 playoffs. Our hitters weren’t doing anything that game. We weren’t having good ABs or even hitting balls hard.
I agree. Everyone acts so doom-and-gloom about the DD-Buck era. They were a really good team and had a ton of success.
Most of the issues seem like they came from Peter Angelos - no international signings, signing Chris Davis, letting a weird power structure exist, different levels of the farm system doing different things, etc.
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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Sure it added value, but if that value comes exclusively while the team is terrible, I’d say it served little strategic purpose. Now, if we trade Villar for some useful future pieces because of his good season this year, then maybe we got some strategic value out of the trade.
Even while terrible, there is value in having talented players even if they do not result in future strategic pieces. Baseball is an entertainment business and there is certainly value from a business standpoint. I know its popular right now, but I really think the "the-team-is-bad-so-sell-everything" mantra is overplayed at this point.
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I don't think we can truly grade Duquette on the July 2018 trades, simply because we have no idea how much autonomy he had.
If ownership told him to clear as much salary as possible, I'd give Duquette a pretty good grade because he managed to get some decent assets while primarily just trying to move money. He also traded for international money and was never given the opportunity to use it.
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Seems like Maddon is headed to the Angels. I could see Buck being hired by the Phillies if they decide to part with Kapler, but I wonder if a Buck/Arrieta relationship would prevent that.
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11 hours ago, 24fps said:
Mike Elias does have a role on the team in the future and his apparent taste for choosing the time and place for his battles gives me hope that the Chris Davis situation will be resolved as soon as possible. Give me me steady, discernable overall progress and I'll deal with the odd unpleasant reminder - even one of this size.
I'd assume Elias at least wants to do his due diligence and see how Davis looks in 2020 with a full offseason under his watch. I'd assume that Elias and his team are probably making some demands on Davis in regard to his offseason training program. Since Elias was hired late last year, I'd guess that he and his team weren't able to do that last offseason.
Which, I think is the right move. If nothing changes and they keep putting Davis in the lineup through the end of his contract just because he's owed money- that's a bad move. But, I think it's smart for Elias to at least see if his staff can do something productive with Davis. If he struggles and looks the same early next year, I'd expect they'd part ways.
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44 minutes ago, SteveA said:
I wonder how many games this team lost strictly due to really stupid play, such as overthrowing the cutoff man, two run sac fly, holding onto the ball when the winning run scored, throwing to the wrong base, running to the wrong base, etc?
I know every team in MLB makes SOME mistakes like that but I have to think we made a lot more than average. And I know they didn't all cost us games...even without last night's season ending gaffe, Boston has 2 on and nobody out and the meat of the order up and probably beats us anyway.
But I still think if we could just have cut those types of mental errors down to the MLB average, we might have won 6 or 7 more games, maybe even avoided losing 100. And you don't have to have the talent of Willie Mays to throw to the right base, those types of things don't necessarily correlate with talent.
Of course we all will be watching for improved talent as it comes up through the system and as Elias acquires it. But I'll also be watching to see if we make those kind of near-daily screwups next year. I think it's on Hyde and the coaching staff to clean that up and if they don't then I don't think they'll be sticking around for many more years.
Their Pythagorean W-L was 60-102. Definitely some truth to what you're saying here.
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Actually, you are right about that. But I don’t remember any drama with Ripken’s subsequent contracts.
I was pretty young at the time, but I do remember negotiations over his last extension dragging on for a while. But, anytime an aging hometown hero is in negotiations for their final contract, it seems like some media drama is always involved:
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1997-04-03-1997093096-story.html
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6 hours ago, interloper said:
My latest theory is that, based on Elias' latest comments, Davis gets the offseason (the first full one under Elias) to "make adjustments" aka do it Elias' way. And they test him out in Spring Training and make a call then.
I agree with you. The tone from Hyde and Elias has definitely shifted. Melewski was saying the other day they've placed some demands on adjustments they expect him to make.
I think Mountcastle ultimately forces the issue. If Davis is doing the same thing in Spring Training, I could see them releasing him. Which would have totally shocked me if you asked me earlier this year.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
5/$30 mm, which at the time made him the highest paid player in baseball.
Context is important.
Wasn't Eli Jacobs the owner when this contract was signed?
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
I’m not saying they aren’t doing it for that reason. I’m just saying it’s a rather clumsy attempt in my opinion. Selling the players takes more than putting some contrived nickname on an all black or all white uniform for three games a year.
And this may just be the dinosaur in me talking, but I don’t think the lack of personalities is baseball’s big problem. The slowing down of the game and reduction of plays where athleticism is on display is a much bigger issue, I think.
Drew Brees isn't a particularly exciting personality. He's really popular and a face of the NFL. So, I don't buy the "players are boring" take. MLB just needs to be better at marketing the very good players they have already.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
It isn't logical for it to have dragged along as long as it has. Once you remove logic from the decision making process who knows what will come next.
I'd argue that Elias and the Angelos sons' handling of Davis has been relatively logical. They inherited a big expensive mess - but I don't fault them for at least seeing if he could turn it around as long as he wasn't blocking someone. It would have been nice to have Mancini at 1B this year, but they kind of needed him in the outfield this year anyway. They were starting Keon Broxton, and Joey Rickard out there this year. Stevie Wilkerson is an infielder at heart. Davis hasn't really been blocking anyone until lately - and now you've started to hear Hyde say he's going to be on the bench more.
I could totally be wrong, but from reading between the lines in what some of the beat reporters are saying, it seems like their patience is running thin. I think they give him another Spring Training, but expect to see adjustments in his approach. If he's doing the same thing next spring, I would not be surprised to see them release Davis. And I've always thought they'd keep running Davis out there till the last year of the contract. The tone seems to have shifted in the little nuggets of information we get through the media.
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On 8/24/2019 at 4:34 PM, Frobby said:
The appeals will take time, assuming the Orioles pursue them. Realistically, a minimum of 18 months, a maximum of 3 years (but probably not that long).
Thanks for providing your expertise on this, Frobby. Very appreciated.
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18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Union can't stop a buyout.
I wonder if Davis' camp approach ownership with a buyout if they could even get in the door? I could see the old man refusing.
Peter Angelos is unfortunately in very ill health. From everything I've heard, I would be very surprised if he is involved in any decisions at all.
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22 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:
Andrew Luck did it.
There's a big difference between a crappy baseball player and a guy wanting to leave a violent sport where he has already had life-changing injuries. I don't think the two can be compared at all.
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12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Go through an objective checklist. Women's soccer today is a lot more like 1800s or early 1900s baseball than it is today's major leagues. Small crowds, small salaries, leagues folding, limited history, teams playing in essentially community parks. Just the salaries are a big indicator - the max individual salary for the league is $46k, and this is one of if not the top league in the world. I have administrative assistants who make more than stars in the NWSL. The minimum salary is $16k - you can make that working fast food. I'd guarantee you players have dropped out of the league because they can't make any money. The talent pool expands and contracts with salary, and $46k isn't buying much talent. The USWNT players make a lot more, the rank and file make the kind of salary you get as a starting elementary school teacher in Alabama.
In 1871 many of the best players in the world were in the National Association. It was the best baseball league in the world. But objectively the NA is a low-level minor league compared to today.
You can wish and want that today's NWSL is a high-level pro league. But it simply is not. Objectively it's on par with the BaySox or the Baltimore Blast. It's a minor league paying minor league salaries, playing in front of minor league crowds, and on shaky financial footing.
What are you even talking about, dude? Sure, NWSL isn't commercially strong - but there is absolutely tremendous, elite talent in that league. To look at a couple stats and say it is on par with 1800s baseball is really silly. You're ignoring a ton of other variables of the 1800s - like segregation, wars, a completely different US economy, limited transportation...
Gymnastics, swimming, etc aren't selling out stadiums either - but that doesn't mean anything in terms of the talent-level.
I read back and I'm not even sure what you two were arguing about - but I had to call this lunacy out. Not sure your motive here. Just because women have to fight for equal pay (like they have to fight for in every industry) doesn't mean their leagues are lacking in talent or play. It's us men who need to wake up and realize that we should be paying attention to the talent of the NWSL, WNBA, etc. Not dismiss it to be equal to an indoor soccer league.
Are we witnessing the death of the Orioles?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Last night it really hit me, but baseball's biggest problem might be that its biggest playoff games are on TBS. The Yankees and Astros have some of the biggest and most marketable players in the game. It is exactly the type of game that should be use to expand the game.
I wanted to watch it. But as a cord cutting millennial, it was simply too difficult for me to get it on my TV. I ended up watching Joe Flacco throw to empty parts of the field during the lousy Thursday Night Football game.
So, if me, a huge baseball fan isn't even going through the trouble to watch a ALCS game between two big teams - - what are casual fans doing!?