24fps

At this point any difference-maker is going to have come through trade so that is where my vote went. Ideally Means and Kremer should be in the 4 and 5 slots. Obvously Cease remains a good fit, but I'm hoping that Elias is working on other possibilities that currently aren't generating any rumors.

If Joey Ortiz is the headliner I would too. I think most people here understand that the marketplace is competitive enough that for any O’s deal Ortiz would have to be a second piece at best. It’s not hard to believe that Getz is asking for a lot, but beyond that I don’t place much credence in any of the reports we’re hearing.

I'm beginning to think it won't get done with the O's either, but I can say unequivocally that Getz is a fool if he doesn't trade Cease to somebody before the beginning of spring training. Given how few trade chips the White Sox have at the moment, if nothing else Getz needs to offload the injury risk elsewhere. And right now, some team will definitely give fair value plus a small premium.

As you've probably realized by now, most posters here would accept one of Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg as a headliner along with additional lesser pieces. You won't get much support, however, if one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo has to be included. I think that position is pretty well fixed at this point. I'm also beginning to get the sense that the two teams need to close the Cease deal soon if it's going to happen at all. If Elias has budget space for a FA pitcher - and I think he does although not in the Snell/Montgomery range - then I don't see him waiting around forever.

I started the offseason thinking the payroll would go to roughly $85 million. I've since revised my expectation to at least $100 million by the end of the year, which sounds about right because even a tier 3 starter would get it close to that before Opening Day. I'm not holding my breath about any extensions. I've said all along that since last year's success there is no place for JA to hide on the payroll question and there isn't. MLB rights fees, MASN rights fees, increased attendance and a host of other revenue streams means that a $100 million MLB payroll for the O's is sustainable at a minimum.

I think the O's payroll will be closer to $83 million once arb raises are sorted out.

If the White Sox need pitching back, the O's were never a serious match anyway. Do I believe the Mariners are now in the hunt for Cease? Yes, that would be a very good rotation, but I don't believe the talks are very far along and who else besides Miller or Woo would have to be added?

If it were me, that's what I would do as well, but at this point I find it hard to imagine what it would be like to root for a team in a division as weak as the AL Central. Maybe there actually is a case to retool? I think it would be short sighted at best, but I get the disappointment over how their last rebuild worked out.

In the end, Cease is worth what the marketplace says he's worth - it's still an auction in the end and right now my interest is turning to what Elias chooses to do as the offseason winds down. If Getz doesn't trade Cease before Opening Day then he's a fool IMO but that's only the Orioles' problem if Elias lets it. Elias says he's being aggressive and I believe him, but after last year's success it's completely fair to focus on actual improvements for 2024. The O's still need another SP and he ought to be a difference-maker.

Did someone here suggest that? if so, I think most people here understand that, in the marketplace, Cease is worth more than Ortiz as the headliner and it really doesn't serve the discussion to keep going back to that.

This is exactly right. I don't think anybody looks at Lorenzen as an upgrade including me. At best he's insurance against injuries and underperformance from the other starters. He is certainly not what the team has a right to expect given last year's success. There is a point where Elias has to take back the initiative on improving the team though, and if what other teams are asking for is unreasonable and he can't spend the money on Snell or Montgomery then there's not much else to do to address 2024's clearest need.

I expect the O's could get considerably better than Cease if they were willing to part with Holliday. If there are teams that are unwilling to consider any discussion that doesn't include Holliday, Basallo or Mayo then Elias needs to move on to other options. Personally I think that time should be very soon because I think he has enough budget left to add a guy like Lorenzen if necessary and as solid a fit as Cease is, he's not so good that Elias has to put himself at a disadvantage by waiting too long.

You're right, we're straying off target, so after this post I will move on. I'm not talking about donations, just subscribe to the news sources you rely on. The Sun was just sold to local business executive David D. Smith of Sinclair Broadcasting who recently told the assembled staff that "he hadn't read a newspaper in 40 years". You can imagine how well that went over. Following is a link to the WaPo story if you're interested: https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/01/17/baltimore-sun-staff-meeting-david-smith-sinclair-alden/

I suspect that Roch would be the first to tell you that he's not a modern-day Mike Wallace. Nonetheless he provides plenty of actual news along with informed commentary and I don't see any evidence that he's actively propagandizing at the behest of John Angelos. It's time to take Roch and Melewski and the rest for what they are and not what you might hope they were. It's also time to shoot a few bucks (or more that a few) in the direction of your local news outlets because a broad funding base is the lifeblood of principled reporting. Pay attention to the train wreck just now starting to unfold at the Baltimore Sun as an example of what happens when you don't.

I didn't say or suggest anything about press "failure" although it's true that deep investigative reporting has always been subject to budget limitations if it's done in an institutional setting. That's not failure but a fact of life.

He did a Cowser last year for sure. That said, it's a deal I would be all over if I was Elias.

Astroball by Ben Reiter is an example that comes immediately to mind. He also produced the excellent PBS Frontline documentary on the cheating scandal. There is still a place for investigative reporting in sports and elsewhere in public life but institutional (often meaning financial) support for the process remains limited as it always has been. It's costly and time-intensive but not yet in danger of becoming extinct.

How does adding Tyler Nevin improve a AAA team that was already the best in 2023?

Clearly Sig found a minor but hugely consequential tweak that's been overlooked up until now. One that will no doubt reverberate throughout the AL East for years. How else do you explain such a move?

Time marches on whether or not the next tier of bats are ready. Around 100 games will be in the books by the next deadline. All our untraded but currently MLB-ready minor league players will be that much older and in many cases that much less attractive. The time for Elias to make at least a couple of decisive moves is before the next 8 weeks or so are up.

Every team will know more about every other team including their own by March. That includes each team's respective players and which GMs sat on their hands gathering information while the rest actively set out to address their team's problems. Injuries and ineffectiveness happen whether you choose to recognize that possibility or not. It would be a shame if Elias was forced to overpay because he let the right moment pass. If the White Sox really are being unreasonable - remember nobody actually KNOWS anything at the moment - maybe it's time to sign a guy like Paxton to as short a contract as he's willing to agree to Elias can gather information to his heart's content.

As spring training unfolds, I want to see an increase in innings pitched commensurate with the other starters, along with few reports of nagging twinges, aches, pains, blisters, etc. If Means can make 25 or so starts during the season that would be a genuine difference-maker and don't want to see that blown out of the water before the season even begins.

Means looking like he can go 140-150 innings at or close to his pre-TJS level.

I thought I was pretty clued in to major league baseball players, but I'm embarrassed to say that I've never heard of John Brebbia until now.

O'Hearn has an option left so if he's not traded, Kjerstad could take his place with a good spring training.