24fps

He would make it up to get us all running around chasing our tails. Your reasoning couldn’t be better otherwise.

“Innovation, by definition, suggests change will be taking place,” Sig said. “If there’s change taking place, it’s not likely going to feel right. If it felt right, it would have been done a long time ago.” ― Ben Reiter, Astroball: The New Way to Win It All The current Orioles FO has been heavily influenced by the Astros organization of the 2010's and if you look at the route Elias has taken, it makes sense thought of in that context.

You're late, the full moon was yesterday. Happy holidays anyway.

I think a pretty good case can be made that the O's biggest current need is a MOR (or better) ML pitcher for 2024 and while maximizing value in the lower levels is always desirable, for many of us it's a secondary priority. I don't know about you, but I'm not going to be too happy with Elias if he's busy rearranging the rosters at Bowie and Norfolk, while Baltimore languishes.

Cease is a discount MOR guy with the potential to be better - that's why there's 100 pages and counting about him. Ignoring context, I like the notion of trading blocked prospects for promising Mil pitching, but as of 2023 the O's are no longer a rebuilding team and prospect capital should now be used to augment the ML team IMO. As guys like Santander, Hays, Mullins approach free agency, absolutely trade them for minor league pitching if there's a worthwhile deal available.

This past season three O's pitchers made 30 or more starts and Wells and Rodriguez made 20 and 23 respectively. Even so they still needed Irvin, Flaherty, Means and Akin to take the ball at some point. SP health is always a big concern and the O's were relatively lucky in 2023, so another frontline starter shouldn't be considered a luxury IMO.

$16-18 million a year will be a good deal more that the cost of the entire rotation including Cease should the O's actually acquire him. Kremer is a bargain for what the O's need in 2024 if our assumptions about budget limits are correct.

Interestingly, 2024 ZIPS has Stroman as Kremer's #1 comp. If for no other reason it's interesting because all the crapping on Kremer has gone a little overboard at this point IMO. The O's need one more solid starter and if that means Kremer ends up as #5 (which is about right) then the O's must have a pretty good rotation on Opening Day.

I'm all in favor of acquiring high upside, far away prospects, but to me, that role should be left for the amateur and international draft. If the O's are going to trade Cowser, Ortiz and the like, they need to go toward competing in 2024.

Except for 2021, history says you are correct with Hays hitting .308 or better each season. He also does well in Yankee Stadium. Rogers Center not so much.

I prefer "Multiple knowledgeable sources believe that the White Sox asking price for Dylan Cease is exorbitant and ..." can support just about any narrative you want from that point on.

Does anyone doubt that both Roch and Melewski monitor this board pretty closely? As well they should IMO, because the OH serves as a pretty good news/rumor aggregator in addition to being a great source of informed speculation.

Given what I saw during the 2023 regular season, I think I'd rather be an offseason too early than an offseason too late to make the move. I agree that it doesn't have to be Cease but it should be for somebody good in the next two months.

No. 112 ERA+ minimum and hopefully more, of course. I remain convinced that Cease is going to be more expensive than a "balanced" trade would dictate in terms of prospects. His durability and relatively low payroll hit are great but only go so far.

I think that would be the minimum expectation for the trade to make sense in the first place for the O's. We are all assuming that Elias is in on Cease, but if he doesn't believe he can squeeze a solid two years out of him, then that might not be the case. It sure looks like a great match from the outside though, with an acceptable amount of risk.

I agree he's not an ace but I didn't imply that he was. I also think that 97 starts with 526.2 innings pitched over the last three seasons to a cumulative 121 ERA+ proves plenty about both quality and durability. I don't think demanding a return based 2022 Cease is going to fly - for the O's or any other team, but the narrative you scoff at is eminently sellable by the White Sox GM exactly as described and on that part he shouldn't budge.

As an early ask by the White Sox (assuming they already understand no Holliday, Mayo, Basallo), I would be expecting something like this. It's more than I would ultimately agree to, so if they're not budging then I would have to walk away, but I don't think it's an unreasonable position and I wouldn't be surprised if Elias has to give up Kjerstad, Ortiz and two other lesser pieces to close the deal. I think two years of a young, controllable, proven starter with demonstrated upside is simply going to be more expensive than O's fans are going like, but there is/will be enough competition to make it necessary.

You're right of course, but the prospect of the Dodgers or Yankees failing from wretched excess is a very different (and consequential) problem for a commissioner to have than the Royals or Orioles failing from an excess of restraint from whatever motive.

It looks like 12/325 for Yamamoto by the Dodgers. Over a billion in one offseason for two players. If this is not a successful play to make the Dodgers the official MLB team of Japan, it will be a cautionary tale taught in B-schools for a very long time.

Hard to get upset about a team that wants to keep spending only to remain irrelevant. Is there anything better than regularly beating the Yankees on a budget?

I don't remember anyone suggesting that the O's defense would turn Dylan Cease into Cy Young. In 2023 the O's team DRS was +34 and the White Sox put up -59 or 29th out of 30 teams. That alone indicates he will benefit from the change of scenery regardless of other factors. 75% is a specific number. I'm curious as to how was it arrived at.

Suggestion: Change the thread title to "Poster Trade Ideas Except for Dylan Cease" and see if that has any impact on the direction its heading. I'm perfectly happy with focusing on acquiring the best SP possible and mix and match the rest of the roster with current vets and our abundance of ML-ready prospects. I don't see much else needed for 2024 except maybe one more RP so maybe this isn't the best thread for me to invest too much time in. I'm really looking forward to watching the evolution of the 2023. As #5 starters go, I think Kremer is a pretty good one, so I don't see any need to get rid of him - he can be next season's Gibson at a much cheaper cost with similar durability and probably better results.

Valdez is left-handed. That's a good thing but the O's would be discernibly better with any of Valdez, Cease or Luzardo regardless of the increasingly exotic statistical hair-splitting.

After Fuji we’re due.

July 6th 14-1 trouncing of the Yankees for me. It was after that series and especially that game that I first believed that this team actually could make it to the postseason.