24fps

When it comes to fine art, he’s a great pitcher.

Carpenter is pretty much a full-time DH type now and that doesn’t fit in with how Hyde likes to build his lineups.

If - and it could be a big if - Valdez and Luzardo actually are options, then that should temper expectations for how much the WS can expect to get from the O’s for Cease. I’ve argued for Cease for a while now and he would still be a good get, but my preference is for Valdez, Cease and Luzardo in that order and I would begrudgingly settle for a one-year stopgap if it meant keeping Mayo, Holliday and Basallo.

Two months until pitchers and catchers report. Three-and-a-half months until Opening Day. Yep, time to close the book on this offseason.

Stroman, Ryu, Wacha, Giolito are all worth considering if it comes to that, which I hope it doesn't. I don't believe the Kimbrel signing signals anything at all about what Elias will spend on starting pitching although 1-2 years is likely to be favorable.

There is certainly a question as to whether he is what the O's need for 2024. With Rodriguez needing to prove he can go 170 innings and Means coming back from TJS it might be better if Elias looked for someone a little more proven. Of the Mariners pitchers who might be available, I like Gilbert but I think he would ultimately be too expensive.

Wells and Irvin will get plenty of opportunity anyway. The O's gave starts to 9 pitchers in 2023 but the Yankees and Red Sox needed 13 apiece. The Blue Jays had four pitchers make over 30 starts but still needed 8 starters overall. The Rays needed 17 but they used an opener strategy for at least part of the season, so that somewhat skews their data. My point is that even with a rotation healthy enough to have four starters give you 120+ starts you will still want to have at least 4 more pitchers on hand who can go multiple innings to be covered. Having Wells, Irvin and Hall available to step in before having to dip in to AAA is huge IMO, but one more durable SP is still needed by Opening Day.

The dollar value of WAR has been around $8 million for as long as I can remember. In the case of the Orioles I think it's probably safer and more relevant to look at the actual dollar value of a contract as a percentage of total active payroll. I think that's especially true when Santander's replacement (Kjerstad or Cowser) is going to cost less than 5% of his projected arb raise and has a good chance of performing almost as well. Santander is a good, solid player with perhaps a little more in the tank, and if he's on the 2024 team I will be happy. But I also think his trade value is close to its peak now and with at least two replacements looking for playing time, it's also a justifiable time to move him. Keeping him and expecting to cash in on a QO being declined however, is not the sort of gamble you would expect from a team with a director of analytics that use to deal blackjack.

I agree with btdart20 that if Santander is offered a QO, he'll take it, and right away 20% of a $100 million active payroll is tied up in one player. It is hard to justify risking that happening for a player you believe won't garner much in the trade market. It's also hard to see Santander improving to the point where $20 million is warranted in light of all the other options. Elias doesn't strike me as someone likely to gamble that way. If he doesn't trade Santander this offseason then it's because he believes he will provide $12 million worth of value in 2024.

I was making a joke, but in all seriousness, once PA dies I predict that will happen very quickly.

A chance for what? General Motors Stadium at Camden Yards?

It's two months before pitchers and catchers report so I think it would be strange if the White Sox weren't taking their time right now. I'm sure that they've explored general trade parameters with several clubs including the O's, but Snell, Montgomery and Yamamoto are still out there so it make sense for them to see how many big spenders are desperate for pitching after those three sign. The O's remain the best match unless the WS want pitching, or another club is willing to overpay by substantial amount.

Fair enough. I should have said "...back toward 2022 levels". The point I was trying to get at is nobody is going to succeed in trading for him if they expect CWS to value him as the 2023 version of Dylan Cease, you're going to pay a premium to gamble on his upside. And that's fine with me. Plenty of people are going moan about "losing the trade" if they perceive Elias has overpaid, but I don't care unless the cost is truly egregious. To me, a solid SP is the big missing piece that needs to be addressed this offseason and Cease is the most realistic option I see.

Cue the Six Million Dollar Man intro. And while we're at it, let's ignore all the noise designed to remove any advantage a first-rate FO like the Orioles might have when it comes to research and analysis. There would be no point in trading for Cease if a team didn't think it could steer his performance back to 2022 levels. He's going to be expensive, if for no other reason than because that narrative will be repeated often enough to gain some traction. The fact remains that the O's are best positioned to trade what is required unless CHW decides it wants young pitching that could be used in 2024. If that's the case then the advantage shifts to the Dodgers IMO. The only other question in my mind is Elias' willingness to trade more than what most of us think is "fair". Personally I don't care if the world at large thinks the Orioles didn't win a trade 24 hours after it happened. Get back to me about 10 months from now.

I have been trying to find this out but so far have been unsuccessful... The deferred money has to be put in escrow within a specified amount of time for each year, but I can't find out if any particular form is stipulated. Could interest bearing financial tools like promissory notes, insurance products, zero-coupon bonds and the like be used to further minimize the present day impact to free up more 2024 cash for the Dodgers? For example, $68 million in zero-coupon bonds maturing in 10 years at 5% interest discounts to $41.70 million at purchase. Anybody know the answer?

$2 million? That's just from his daytime gig. Reports are that he'll pull in $40 million a year from his side hustle.

The buying power of $50 million in 2005 would require $77 million in 2023 for an average inflation rate of 2.44% per year. But what about the 2023 O's? The $61 million O's active payroll this past season is the equivalent of $46.3 million in 2005 so punt that Melvin Mora guy and we can compare apples to apples.

At an inflation rate of 5%, $430 million today would be $700 million 10 years from now. The Dodgers have no control over inflation, but plenty of control over the return they can get from investing the money that Ohtani has essentially lent them and I'm sure the calculation is that they can do better than the inflation rate.

State taxes play out in another way as well. I'm not sure of the specifics, but every state with an income tax that Ohtani plays in has a fractional claim on his income for the time he spends "working" (playing professional baseball) in that state. If that fraction is calculated on $2 million instead of $70 million I can see that leading to some angry state legislatures with taxing authority looking for restitution.

Think of how much more JA could pocket if he could figure out how to get the pre-arb, league minimum guys to go for this plan. I can see the wheels turning already.

South Dakota doesn't, Alaska doesn't, Nevada doesn't... plenty of cool, cosmopolitan places for Ohtani to kick back and put down roots after he hangs 'em up.

I'm sure the Dodgers and Blue Jays had some talented and expensive number-crunchers do the math several times and came out with predicted outcomes closer to reality that anything you're likely to see in print, at least for a while. I also believe that they used the most optimistic interpretations of those outcomes to make their decision and charged full speed ahead without a second thought. The money at the disposal of the Dodgers, Yankees and a few other teams provides a cushion that allows them to exist in a place unfamiliar to the rest of MLB.

It looks like a good, solid, mutually beneficial trade would do wonders right about now.

Baseball Doesn't Exist? Is this the same intrepid group that discovered that birds aren't real?

One more starter and I'll shut up, but it had better be a good one.