24fps

9 Orioles pitchers got starts last year. For perspective, the Yankees and Red Sox used 13. Wells and Irvin should both get starts even if we acquire another solid SP - which is clearly still a need.

A "win now" move. How refreshing. I don't hate it.

I'll believe it when I see it. If nothing else, he'll get a month or two of AAA reps at the position they think he'll see the most games.

And Giolito, Clevinger and Lynn. Right now life without Cease is Kopech, Fedde and Toussaint. Rock bottom when it comes to starting pitchers.

Sure, trade a couple of them too. If 2023 taught us anything about Elias and Hyde, it's that they aren't comfortable without a strong veteran presence on the team. Unless some moves are made this winter, the number of rookies on the team on opening day will be fewer than those ready for a job, and that's a waste of resources.

Nobody ever lost betting that John Angelos is a cheapskate, but the O's have too many prospects and need to get rid of some of them. My preference would be for pitching.

Translation: We have too many prospects and we need to get rid of some of them.

A few thousand media sources breathlessly reporting nothing at all throughout the day can't be helping either.

While Luzardo has some upside, I think I would rather gamble that the O's coaching staff could squeeze the best out of Cease than place a lot of faith in the continued health of a young pitcher who's already missed time with a forearm strain.

If prospects status plus pitcher is a deciding factor then the Dodgers have the advantage. Miller, Stone and Pepiot are all a lot more attractive than Irvin. Which is not to say Irvin has no value, two legit O's prospects and Irvin would be a solid offer.

A completely reasonable position IMO. My point was that without a substantial increase in payroll (which I don't expect) tradeoffs will be the order of the day and acquiring a FA starter might require gambling on a rookie elsewhere beyond everyone's comfort zone. Perhaps Elias' as well.

...seem... could... say (as in for example)... followed by two paragraphs describing Luzardo's resumé looks more like a deadline-induced throwaway than a report to me. Rosenthal is real, but quotes attributed to him are unlikely to be legally contested as long as they're correct, and that opens up a very large opportunity to play fast-and-loose with the appearance of journalistic credibility.

This quote alone raises a red flag for me. I am not convinced that Kade Kistner (by his own modest admission a driving force in sports journalism) is 1. not AI to begin with (see below), and 2. not some random 23 year-old recent journalism grad with $80,000 in student loan debt and visions of being the next Ken Rosenthal currently working 16 freelance sports gigs hoping to avoid eating dog food for the third night in a row. Also note that SI has been busted a couple of times recently for using AI without notifying its readers. https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2023-12-01/column-the-depressing-fall-of-sports-illustrated-reveals-the-real-tragedy-of-ai https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/28/sports-illustrated-ai-articles/

Trade Santander and ERod becomes a net gain of $8 million-ish. We need a spot for Kjerstad/Cowser after all, right? My own particular expected active payroll target for 2024 is around $85 million. I would love for it to be more, but that's the line beyond which I need to see it to believe it. I don't see the O's adding a difference-making SP and an established RP with "closer experience" without a move along those lines.

rWAR tells you how pitchers actually performed and fWAR tells you how pitchers should have performed independent from fielding while normalizing luck. This is why fWAR is more useful when looking at a pitcher like Cease who pitched in front of a bad defensive team, but who would have a much better team if he were with the O's.

I continue to think that's a sensible real-world expectation and the White Sox are an ideal match for the O's at this particular moment. Granted Ortiz is not going to hit a ton of home runs, but I also think you're significantly underestimating him nonetheless.

Spotrac has the O's 2024 active payroll at around $71 million right now including estimated arbitration raises. Add Stephenson at $9 million AAV and Cease at $8 million for 2024 and that would take the payroll to $88 million - about $3 million more than my personal guess as to JA's comfort zone. It's just a guess and there's always the possibility of trading a vet or two, but as much as I would like to get Stephenson (and have Angelos loosen the purse strings), I have a hard time believing Elias would consider paying $9 million for a reliever who doesn't have closer experience. I'd love to be proven wrong.

MLB's latest prospect rankings have Ortiz at exactly 50 and Fangraphs had him at 66 before last season when he did really well at AAA. He's now had about 500 PA's in AAA (2022-2023) and his line is in the neighborhood of .330/.385/.530/.915. That's not bad especially with an age difference of -2 years compared to his peers. I would be surprised if he's below 50 in any credible ranking system by the time the 2024 season begins. We're still talking about Ortiz as the second piece in a Cease trade right?

John Angelos is probably a lost cause by now, but does Scott Boras know about this book? Worth a try...

This makes a lot more sense than the speculation about Hader.

The trade suggestion I was responding to only had one pitcher involved coming back from the O’s and I suggested it was generous even so. Meaning too generous, which I think was understood by everybody but you. Maybe cut back on the caffeine a little?

Very generous on the O's part IMO.

I think the Fangraphs ranking (66) is from before the start of last season.

Beach Week in OC in the '60's and 70's would get you there.

I guess I can see Urias sorta... but why would the want Mateo when they already have Masyn Winn? Realistically I think Urias alone is a little light for STL's taste and I don't see the case for the O's sweetening the offer given Irvin, Wells and a ton of other options out there.