24fps

I've read a couple of Matthew Postins' posts over the last week or so, and while he has a vague, basic understanding of the O's, it's pretty clear that he's posting whether or not he has anything that qualifies as news. The internet hustle - ain't it grand?

Curtain. 2024 might not bring 101 wins again, but I think the team will be better nonetheless, especially if the O's add a good SP and back end of the bullpen help. Longer series are less of a crapshoot, so I would be thinking bypassing the WC as a starting point.

Take my answer to include the boilerplate caveat that past performance does not guarantee future results. McDermott & Johnson doesn't sell the insurance the O's pitching staff might need in a competitive season.

I expect the primary starter Elias acquires is to be someone who can realistically be expected to go 170 innings to a sub-4.00 ERA. In other words, someone better than Gibson. I expect him to sign at least one other veteran pitcher who has demonstrated that he's durable and understands he might spend a lot of time in AAA. He'll also find at least one good reliever probably in FA, but who knows, the team certainly has an abundance of prospect capital.

Assuming Elias has an interest in Cease (and I think he should) then Cowser plus Horvath/Fabian/Povich would probably be a good starting point in the negotiation. I also think Elias himself would beat that offer if it was clear that he had to. Whether it's prospects or cash, reliable starting pitch is very expensive and Cease simply checks too many boxes for the O's.

Well if they each made 30 starts last year then it's guaranteed that they'll do the same in 2024. Sorry, but your initial premise - the one you based this entire thread on - is the O's only need to find another 15 starts which is simply silly. As narratives go, I've read fairy tales more grounded in reality.

44 MLB pitchers made 30 or more starts in 2023, or a little under 1.5 per team. 79 made 25 starts or more, or a little under 2.67 per team. Your argument makes assumptions that simply aren't realistic. Nor is the assumption that Povich and Johnson are sufficient insurance against degraded pitcher health realistic. 2024 is a season where fans have every reason to believe the O's are going to compete, and your approach isn't going to get them to even the starting line.

Baseball statistical analysis is nothing at all like election polling unless you think a player's HR for a season is determined by some randomly selected citizen answering a series of biased questions.

Characterizing the O's rotation status as just needing to find 15 more starts somewhere is not only whimsical, but borderline magical as well. Last year the O's used 9 pitchers as starters - for perspective the Red Sox and Yankees used 13 apiece, and the O's rotation had relatively good health. In other words, having 4.5 starters already is halfway there. One more really good starter to go into the OD rotation and another in reserve like Cole Irvin to go along with Wells is a comfortable starting point. Trading away prospects who deserve playing time but won't get it is a good way to solve at least part of that problem. And if the thought of giving up six years of a prospects service time is painful, then remember the prospects behind them will also have plenty of service time to covet. It's a dynamic process and Elias seems to understand that. Does anyone really believe that Elias is going to use the 2024 team as a finishing school for prospects? I think 2-3 over the full course of the season if we're lucky, and I'm as excited as anybody to see the rookies play.

I agree and I believe I read somewhere that this (and finding playing time for the others waiting in line) is what keeps him up at night - every night.

I can see the Dodgers being players for Cease but I suspect Winn and Hence for the Cards are as untouchable as Mayo, Holliday and Basallo are for the O's. If Getz has the judgement to let the market ripen while also not waiting too long, I think he will get the value you are hoping for.

If Westburg hasn't been traded then he'll start in 2024. If we can use history as a guide, Elias/Hyde won't start the year with more than two rookies in the field not including Westburg. I suspect less. It's in the Orioles' interest to thin out the logjam, no question. I think it's a mistake to discount Ortiz too much, but "show me" is a tried and true internet argument if nothing else. Colson Montgomery looks like a keeper so maybe Ortiz is redundant? There's always Kyle Stowers.

Fair enough. I guess is what everyone wants to know now is who gets a full share

Williams would be a good get, but Hays, Cowser, Norby AND Bassalo for him and one year of Burnes? That kind of spend should get you a whole lot more. I don't think Bassalo, Mayo or Holliday are on the table for any deal anyway. Hays/Cowser and Norby are all outfielders or soon-to-be outfielders so that too might be a problem.

It's a thought, but the chimps are the competition... Chimps live in trees and there are plenty of low-rent trees in Baltimore. Just sayin.

Would they fit in a discarded cardboard shack under the freeway? I mean, what will this country come to if minimum wage workers start expecting bunk beds?

Good guy and a good teammate by all accounts. Wish him all the best.

On the subject of price range, Bieber and Santander are a wash from a money standpoint. That means the real issue for this discussion is replacing Santander's offense in 2024- but you get to do that with all your prospects intact including Kjerstad who is the likeliest to slot into RF. I don't think you get Cease without parting with Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz but that's reasonable IMO for a second year of an affordable Cease. So I'm absolutely willing to gamble on Kjerstad in RF if it means an upgrade in SP. I also think stressing over Santander's lost production is a waste of time. One thing that no one is mentioning is that based on history so far, neither Elias or Hyde are going to want to start the season with more than two(?) actual rookies in the lineup on opening day (not including Westburg who is no longer a rookie) That might be a barrier to trading Santander, but it shouldn't be.

Geez. With all the strawmen currently running around, I hope nobody is smoking.

Hancock is an interesting arm, but I'm not sure he would be any better than Kremer in 2024 and IMO the current focus should be on difference-making ML arms. Be nice to have him in the system though.

At this particular moment, the O's have a lot of flexibility to go just about any way they want. Speaking for myself, I don't blame Elias one bit for trying to extract as much value as possible out of any trade. I also think that a slight (emphasis slight) overpay to get the right starter and/or reliever won't be the end of the world.

It seem that it's become an article of faith that Orioles fans are "terrified" of trading Kjerstad and/or Cowser. In case you haven't heard, Elias is a "prospect-hugger" too.

As long as Elias doesn't go through the offseason with Hall penciled in as the #5 starter I'm okay with Hall prepping to start. There will be an opportunity for him to prove he's ready sometime during the season just through the normal course of events. But Elias needs to add another SP, and a good one at that.

O's paid the Royals.

Spotrac has Cease getting $8.3 million in 2024 with another year of control afterward. That's pretty cheap, and given that, my guess that a dozen teams will at least check in with 4-5 showing genuine interest. I think the Sox will get good value regardless and the only question is which way Getz wants to go. The O's have lots of flexibility to put together different kinds of deals which is why I like their chances.