24fps

There is a whole, albeit small, subset of nerds for whom the sport of baseball is secondary to the statistical data it generates. They need a place to hang out too, don't they?

It looks to me like it validates the benefit of winning the division.

Best for which starting pitcher? Statcast has been around since 2015 and pitch/fx (later TrackMan) since 2006. Lots of big data sets sloshing around out there to play with. If MLB does, in fact, make an effort to assign the "best" umps to the post-season then okay fine, but I would like to know what yardstick these umps are measured by. Pick any random game thread from the 2023 season and you are likely to find credible complaints about that game's strike zone. I wonder if we've reached the moment where choosing a starting pitcher in a playoff scenario ought to be delayed until the umpiring rotation has been announced.

What's really weird is that the tweet is from Baseball America who are generally very clued-in to the Orioles' farm system.

Gosh, I wish the Orioles could one day be that good at scouting and developing.

I would really love to see a Diamondbacks/O's World Series just to see the two respective ROY's face off. Well not just, but....

Amen, brother. With the Blue Jays and Rays now gone, all that's left standing is the real cream of the Al East.

The long-running PBS documentary series Frontline began its new season tonight with a 90 minute documentary on the Astros cheating scandal and how it reverberates even today - just in time for post-season baseball, of course. I don't think many posters on this site will find that much new information in it, but I recommend making the effort to watch it nonetheless. It is hosted and co-produced by Ben Reiter who wrote Astroball so his access is about as good as it's going to get on the subject. I particularly enjoyed Fay Vincent who left no doubt about where he stood on the issue at the time (ban them for life) and Antonio Padilla, a young, extremely thoughtful and well-spoken young man who served as a manager in the Astros video room during the 2016 and 2017 seasons and afterward although I don't remember for how long. The fan who did the video analysis that became the viral sensation for revealing the cheating process was also extensively interviewed. Luhnow comes across as slimy and disingenuous to nobody's surprise. Understandably Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal did not agree to be interviewed, although they were seen at times in the doc. There was no suggestion that they were in any way involved but it's eerie how closely they've followed the Astros early playbook for rebuilding an organization virtually from scratch. I was left really hoping that the O's meet the Astros in the ALCS because the narrative couldn't be scripted any better given the FO's roots in the Astro organization during that time and the continuing animosity toward the Astros. Then if the O's can meet the Diamondbacks in the World Series and we can watch each league's ROY go head-to-head, well what could be better?

9.30 ERA since he returned from injury so he'll be on a short leash. With Eflin pitching for Tampa, that's where my money is tomorrow.

Defamation: To prove prima facie defamation, a plaintiff must show four things: 1) a false statement purporting to be fact; 2) publication or communication of that statement to a third person; 3) fault amounting to at least negligence; and 4) damages, or some harm caused to the reputation of the person or entity who is the subject of the statement. -but- In 1964 the Supreme Court ruled in New York Times Co. v Sullivan that the defamatory statement(s) had to be made with "actual malice". Since then, this has had the effect of raising the bar VERY high and consequently you rarely see defamation suits in the US. Certainly in comparison to places like Great Britain. Should Bauer decide to bring suit, he will have to also prove malice which I think is unlikely to be successful. It will also serve to put the spotlight squarely back on him for an extended time in a post #metoo media environment. No sensible team is going to want to be associated with that circus so the Orioles should stay far, far away from Trevor Bauer.

Correct. Regardless of how wronged Bauer may or may not have been, he's still going to be a lightning rod for negativity well into the future. Maybe it's not fair, but if I were Brandon Hyde I would look back on all the effort expended over the last five years getting the O's to where they are now and say "no thanks" without skipping a beat. And at this point I would expect Hyde's desires in this regard to be respected. Hard pass for me too.

I'm suggesting that common sense indicates that their internal projections might warrant a good, long look in light of results. That and at least half the smoke and a good two-thirds of the mirrors be jettisoned if keeping an audience engaged long enough to show off the authors genius happens to be a goal. Devising highly complicated theories these days is a tough sell in an environment where attention spans are measure in milliseconds. Why on Earth would anybody devote the time figure out why there might be some value in this analysis when actual result already undermine it?

Still Tier 3 I see... The O's have 6.9% WS odds but the Tier 2 Rangers are at 4.6% and the Tier 1 Rays are at 6%. Makes sense to me. At this point I'm really curious as to why Fangraphs is working overtime to undermine its credibility. When it comes to predictions most fair-minded people are happy to factor in a liberal amount of slack, after all. And if a long-standing, professional media organization like Fangraphs still thinks it's okay to demand its audience wade through lengthy and exceedingly obscure process for buy-in then it deserves every frickin' thing it gets.

Texas. No Zach Eflin to face. Also as others have pointed out, the Texas bullpen is not great. I want Tampa and Toronto out right away on general principles and after that, whatever.

Mountcastle, Wells, Perez, Webb, Urias and Irvin all hit Arb 1 in 2024. Hays will hit Arb 2 and get a raise from $3.1 million; Mullins will be Arb 2 and will need a raise from $4 million; Means is Arb 3 and will get a raise from $3 million. Santander will be the most expensive hitting Arb 4 and is currently earning $7.4 million for 2023. Santander is clearly the most eligible trade candidate looking solely at payroll. I also see Urias as expendable. I'm guessing that losing Gibson and Frazier makes the Arb raises somewhere close to a wash. Remember that the O's will also be paying around $22 million in deferred and retained salaries (Davis, Cobb et. al.) in 2024 according to Spotrac. The basic reason to stay cheap is to retain the ability to sign select players like Henderson to early extensions and I hope they do. I can see a benefit to doing the same with Adley and Means. Also there's always a need for a FA or two every season. I predict Hays and Mullins returning in 2024 but only Mullins in 2025 and the O's at a $100 million payroll in 2025 anyway. Hopefully they can find a sustainable sweet spot around $125 million but I think they build up to it.

Irvin is only arb 1 in 2024 so I can see him returning. Whether as a starter candidate or reliever TBD.

This just about sums it up. Not worried at all about the 5 days off. If anything I think it will help with the inevitable aches and pains from a very long season.

I've been apprehensive about our pitching staff in any situation at all for the entire season and they've usually proved me wrong. So if they let us down what's it going to be? The inevitable post-season crapshoot, or the lack of true quality finally revealing itself after an entire year of smoke and mirrors? I've waited all season for the other shoe to drop. I can wait another eleven games or so and I won't be making myself crazy while I do so. At this point they've earned a little confidence from us.

Fangraphs Major League Leaders leaderboard filtered for SS playing as SS with at least 200 PA has Mateo ranked as 25th measured by WAR (0.4 total, 2.7 Def and -10.3 Off). He is also at 25 sorted for defensive WAR. This is for all of MLB not just AL. He has found a useful (if redundant) role with the Orioles but overall he performs around the 20th percentile, not 33rd and certainly not 50th.

Pulled this off one of the MiLB stories. It's a good time to be an Orioles fan. Norby, Stowers, Cowser, Mayo, Holliday, Ortiz

Don't forget the year-end bonus, no doubt partially based on overall profitability. This is meant as a joke, but sports fans assume that the W-L record is the only thing motivating a team's FO and they shouldn't. In many important respects a sports team is a business just like any other.

Is he good enough for some other team to give up actual value for, elite speed and all? I think that is the more pertinent question and we have our answer. The issue was always Mateo vs Ortiz in 2023 for most of us and Elias and Hyde chose Mateo. The W-L record say they weren’t wrong. Nonetheless I hope they make a different choice for 2024.

I suspect Elias’ underlings are already paying attention and taking copious notes, and have been for a while.

I'm trying to think of people who talk smack about Jim Palmer and the only name I come up with is Earl Weaver. Seriously, it's been quite a while since I've heard anyone badmouth Jim Palmer.

Of the teams in or likely to be in the playoffs only the Dodgers. I think they would probably start Mateo over Rojas.