Pickles

Eh. A MiL deal is fine imo.

Hopefully, sparingly.

But to your point, McKenna can't hit. SSS AAA stats be damned. He'll never be more than a 5th outfielder, but his defense and speed do provide some value.

I think it comes down to Odor vs. Stewart. I think McKenna makes the team.

Nobody on either side of the debate should be claiming victory or conceding defeat. I've been adamant that he deserved a shot to start. They're going to give him one. And he's done well in his ST build up this year. That's a far cry from being a successful ML starter.

What are you talking about? Those are great averages!

It will be interesting to see how they use him. If he makes 30 starts and gives you 3-4 innings a turn, that's well within his innings goal for this year imo. But they just let him pitch 3.2 in Spring Training. Are they going to use him more conventionally and shoot for a higher innings total?

I mean, betting on pitchers to get injured is a pretty safe one. And in this case, you're correct, even by default. Wells isn't ready to take a full seasons worth of starts. They're going to have to limit, and shut him down at some point.

Do you think the odds of that change depending on whether he's starting or relieving? Of course, he is in no position to to take the ball 35 times and pitch 200 innings.

I've been saying since last summer he should get a chance to start. And the idea of "If it isn't broke, don't fix it," is a limiting one. This team is in no position to not turn over every stone in the hunt for starting pitching.

I imagine he's been the studio drummer the entire time.

Well they have an opening at drummer now.

So you think the Orioles players and field manager are actively trying to lose games?

Not prioritizing wins at the ML level because you are hopelessly behind your competitors and allocating assets to other aspects of the organization isn't making the conscious decision to lose games. When the Stros did it the baseball media praised them for it. Ditto for the Cubs. Now the baseball media sings a different tune, because the narrative has changed. Not the reality. Just the narrative. Typical.

Not to advocate for anything, but the scuttlebutt from Twins' fans was that Sisco was picked up only as insurance in case this guy doesn't make it through waivers.

First 5000 fans get a used jock strap.

This idea that the O's/Elias just decided to NOT win games is profoundly stupid and childish and shows a deep misunderstanding of the actual situation facing the franchise. I was going to post a Baseball Prospectus article outlining the O's upcoming season, but it was basically a whinefest about how it's "gross" they aren't "trying to win." This was, of course, preceded by legitimate praise for bringing in Odor to "shore up" second base. Shallow morons with no appreciation of the reality of the world parroting what they read other shallow morons tweet on twitter. The modern American press, ladies and gentleman.

Well, I think it's very likely Mullins does regress. He was worth 5.7 WAR last year, and had an OPS+ of 135. I would take the under on both numbers. That isn't to say he didn't make real improvements last year. He did. Or that it was all a mirage. It wasn't. But I expect him to be more of a 3-4 WAR, and 120 OPS+ going forward. I'd be thrilled if I was underselling him.

Can't really argue with their take all that much. Pretty well-reasoned. I'd take the bet against Mullins repeating 30-30 though.

If I could change my vote- I initially voted for Sulser- I would change it to Tate. I think they give him a shot to close early this year.

Shocking to see a .700 OPS being above average, and a DH having a positive WAR with such a number.

And I just want to be clear, I'm not criticizing. You've done a lot over the years to really quantify the draft, and it's added a lot to the discussions on this board.

I truly appreciate how much work you've done over the years attempting to quantify the probabilities for the draft, but I do believe it is rather myopic to value the #67 pick solely by what other #67 picks have done overall. I think a better a way would be to look at windows, so pick 65-70 would be similarly valued, etc. Obviously, the debate then becomes about the lines drawn between the picks, but that would do much to flatten out the probabilities, which can be so greatly skewed by one successful player. But ultimately, you're right: The pick does have value, but is unlikely to yield a truly elite prospect.

They're still a very bad team. However, I want to see them NOT lose 100 games this year. While that seems a modest goal, it is a 10 game improvement over last year.

Well, we partially agree. The pitching is bad and is going to be brutal to watch. I just don't think it's going to any worse than last season. I think it will be marginally better.