Pickles

If it goes into the season, the players obviously. Most owners have other revenue streams. Most players don't.

The arrival of two top 10 global prospects this year suggests otherwise.

I expect them to pitch better this year, because honestly, with the exception of Means, none of them could be worse and maintain a roster spot. I also expect them to experiment with usage a little more this year as well. I do believe that Adley has great leadership qualities, and I don't want to dismiss what that can do. But it's virtually impossible to quantify.

As frobby said earlier, there will be hundreds of abs to guys not projected to get them. In addition to the "bottom feeders" like Odor, Guitierrez, McKenna who will get 1000+.

I've of course heard the same regarding his framing and leadership. I too look forward specifically to the framing issue. I've long held that the attempts to quantify it are profoundly flawed so I look forward to seeing with my own eyes how much that will help the pitchers.

Fair enough. You know what I do? I always take about 10% off what I "feel." My heart has long shown itself to be overly optimistic in regards to the O's and their players.

I think there will be an improvement that will be visually noticeable in catcher's defense. I really don't expect him to be able to help the pitcher's all that much. He can't throw for them. And in today's game, he won't even call pitches. I expect to see some growth out of the young pitchers- mostly because they were all terrible last year- but I'm not sure how much we'll be able to attribute that to Adley.

I'll say this in defense of the owners: Literally the only time owners "make" money off the players is during their cost controlled years. Most organizations give tens of millions of dollars to amateur players annually who don't do anything for them. They likewise spend millions of dollars annually developing those players. That doesn't make them money. We're all in agreement that almost all FAs are overpaid, and owners lose money on them. Changing that system is radical, and likely to have consequences beyond what anyone is predicting. Consequences that could very well be unwanted for the players.

Some people are going to be very disappointed in his bat. I went with 720-759, but I expect him on the higher end of that. I'd put the over under at 750.

Eh. In this thread the vase majority have shared the same projection you did. Nobody is going to predict somebody having a terrible year, though that will surely happen.

I put him at 780-809. I think he's a little more consistent than last year, and still an above average hitter, but I don't think 2019 is happening again. And if I were a betting man, I'd say he'll be the most hurt by the new dimensions.

Well, I have a hard time believing they signed him to show commitment. because of how it ended obviously. And any skeptical good will they may have gained, was doubly betrayed a year later. Clearly they signed him with the intention of trading him later. Now they got away with it, and timed it perfectly, but I'm not sure you can applaud that decision-making. As to his relative value- conceding this is all speculation- I believe he's more valuable on the trade market without the extension because that contract narrows his market down to 3-4 clubs. Without it that market expands, and with a year or + left of control, teams like STL or SEA get involved. And in theory, with more competition for his services you should be able to get a better return.

They still owe 30-60 to the Yankees on the backend. They almost certainly would have been better off trading him before they signed him to the extension, even without the MVP season.

It really is all about perspective. You could praise them for moving on at the exact right time. But they got nothing in return for him. And they still owe it looks like 30-60 million to the Yankees on the backend.

Were they right to sign him?

It's surprising with his tools he isn't playing SS now.

We're starting to get far afield, but I would be wary of projecting any amateur to move up on the positional spectrum.

There's nothing wrong with it as a hypothetical. And I agree with you largely regarding their value/issues. But Hays hasn't even reached arb yet. If he has a good first half, I'm hoping he builds on that. Not looking to get rid of him. Santander is probably in a different boat. But even he has years of team control remaining.

It always comes down to individual cases. I in fact floated trading Santander in his projection thread. However, I expect us to start getting better right now and going forward. It will be hard to do that if the mentality is that as soon as a guy establishes himself and plays well, we're looking to "optimize" their value and trade them, even with multiple years remaining of team control.

We don't have to trade either of them. This idea- and I'm not accusing you of endorsing it- that we're just waiting for our guys to play well so we can trade them is absurd to me.

The bolded is an interesting thought experiment but I do believe you're right.

I guess the statement was bit redundant.

I went 790-820. I really expect to see Hays establish himself this year. If he can stay healthy and get consistent playing time.

I went with 810-840. I expect to see more growth and consistency this year. You could see his plate discipline improve last year as the season progressed. I was very impressed with his bat speed and plate coverage last year.

Your odds line up with mine. 90% for 3 WAR. Maxed out 4-5. The issue is how often that happens. Very rarely for sure.