Pickles

Regarding Odor and Santander, look at their career arcs. Santander's upside is probably 30+ HRs, good RF defense, and a mid to high 800 OPS, short on OBP. He's extremely unlikely to do that, especially strung across several seasons. But it's well within the realm of possibility. Again, I'll take that over some rando 45 from Miami.

Santander putting up 15 WAR over the next three years is not unprecedented. It's highly unlikely, of course, but this is a player with some upside. This is not Odor.

I think Bradish is pretty ambitious for Santander. I think two of them is a pipe dream- even at the peak of his value. I couldn't care at all about the money or roster spot. And if he stinks in 2022 I'm not worried about potentially DFAing him. He's got the potential to put a 4-5 WAR campaign. I believe that's his upside. And he's ML ready. He's cheap. And he's here. I'll take that before a dart throw- which I admit we value differently apparently.

I kind of failed to get back to you in the other thread about this, but I thought about it a bit, and I'm not sure if there is a "better" way to make a cumulative tally. But I still think this is a very blunt instrument. I appreciate they value hitters and pitchers of the same prospect ranking differently, but we can all agree it goes beyond that. It paper overs so much risk variance; a 17 year old Dominican 45 is a different kind of 45 than a college junior draftee in AAA.

When I look at him I don't regret not trading him in the past because he's never had much value; I'm more interested in whether he could establish some value and we could get something going forward. I guess I would just rather roll the dice with him than two random 45s from Miami.

Fair enough.

Higher? Sure. But it's negligible. We don't need to be bemoaning losing the "chance" to trade him 12 months ago at "peak" value.

My point is simply that there has been no real change in his value in the last year. Very minor? Sure. But nobody was giving up anything for him 12 months ago that they probably wouldn't now.

For me, this is where I am. That's a huge red flag.

That's not how it works in this country. Thank God. He's under no need to prove his innocence.

They would be moronic to overvalue him based on 39 games and coming off a season-ending injury. His value isn't material lower now than then. It's always been middling.

I don't expect a ton for either, but it's possible if Santander is having a strong season he could get something with some future value.

How moronic do you think ML GMs are that they would have been fooled by 39 games which ended, predictably, in season ending injury?

I think he'll get in the high 700s- held back by his OBP issues. Him having a monster year and being able to be flipped in August for some legit talent would be an ideal scenario.

If I was setting an over-under for Mullins I'd set it at 800 so I went with the 780-819 option. Though I think there's an argument to be made that that is perhaps pessimistic.

I'm not sure why pointing out our division makes it harder to compete makes me answerable for all of ownership's failures.

Well, I might even agree we need to take more risks, but be specific about the risk. It is real easy to argue "spend money" but when presented with what flesh and blood free agents go for, say it is "atrocious" is a moving goal post.

The aforementioned teams won't always be this good. That's a fact. In 3-4 years, there might be a very different landscape in the AL East. It will always be difficult for a lot of reasons, but it can't remain this good. Those 2012-16 Orioles teams weren't great teams certainly. But you could easily argue that the 14 team was decidedly unlucky for a team that won as many games as it did. They lost 3-4 of their 5 best regulars. Nobody of any credence has suggested we "can't" compete in this division. The differences of perspective are of methods of doing just that: competing.

You don't bash them for not signing Correa. You're far more subtle. LOL. You bash them for not "spending any money." But when presented with what an actual sensible FA costs, you balk at it, and call the contract atrocious. You sound like Peter Angelos. That would make sense. Didn't you shine his shoes once?

It undoubtedly makes it more difficult. I've made the argument in the past. And was told I was making "excuses." It would be pretty difficult for anyone over the age of 10 to make the argument we can't compete in this division; considering we made the playoffs 3 times in a 5 year span within the last decade. So, yeah, exact words or not, few have ever made that claim. To then use the idea that our division makes it more difficult to compete to justify signing a FA, who you believe is going to sign an "atrocious" deal, is odd.

I expect the team to start winning more games from this point on. What that looks like remains to be seen. If there is a deviation from that, then I will start reevaluating.

I personally have made the argument in the past, and was ridiculed by YOU for it, that we would have to have different strategy because of the division we played in. And yet nobody has literally ever said we cannot compete in this division. Which was what you just claimed. So here we are, and you're saying..... what exactly? Correa is going to sign a terrible contract, but Correa is the kind of guy we should criticize the FO for not signing, because you know you have to hit on a 16 sometimes, because of the division we play in?

You're also not responding to the things I write. But instead posing a serious of rhetorical questions. You could go back and respond to my previous post past the first line.

Well, I've already said Correa makes a lot of sense. So if they signed him I'd be fine with it. It would depend on the pitcher and the contract whether I'd like that. And you're not incorrect. I'd probably disagree with how they spent the money in an ideal world, but if ownership showed a willingness to maintain a high ML payroll, while still trying to build a cutting edge system and the money that goes into that, I'd cheer that on. I just don't see that happening. So I choose to ponder about the world that actually exists.

Nobody has ever said we can 't compete because of our division. Ever. Literally. That's your problem, sportsguy, nobody is trying to "get you." They're engaging in conversation with you, and you flip like a fish; them noticing it is not their problem. I mean, in this thread alone, you've basically went from saying Correa's contract will be "atrocious"- the point I joined the conversation- to attempting to use the non-acquisition as yet another cudgel to tell the board about how much better you could do the job than the professionals.