Pickles

And I'm answering.

I thought using the division we play in to alter strategy was an "excuse" and "cowardly?"

Well, let me say, I object to the idea that I'm willing to kick the can "indefinitely." I expect the Orioles payroll to increase as they develop better players and as a consequence win more. I do not expect the payroll increase by signing external FAs. I largely support this because signing external FAs has proven time and again a poor way to build a baseball team. There are exceptions and Correa could be one of them. Again, it's why I'm willing to entertain the idea. I simply have a further horizon than a few of you. I think just as many people, and apparently the FO as well, share my perspective, as agree with yours and others. This arbitrary idea that we must be "competing" in 2023 is not something I agree with.

You don't hit on 16 just to feel good.

That's a pretty blunt instrument. I certainly wouldn't say all 55 FVs are created equal.

Narrowing the scope of our conversation and focusing it back on a possible Correa acquisition: I don't think our parameters are far off on the kind of contract we'd hand him. I'd go like 8/250. Maybe even 10/300 with a frontloaded contract. Only because I agree he's an exceptional case that doesn't come around often. He almost certainly won't sign here for that. The answer isn't then to go spend 30 million a year on 3 mediocre free agents. It's to keep the course. Even if that means you don't "compete" in 2023.

Well, I won't argue the necessity or wisdom of changing the FA rules. I will point out that demanding a change favorable to yourself and then walking back from that demand is no real concession at all.

Making a demand that overturns the 50 year status quo, and then walking back from that demand, isn't much of a concession.

What does that do for the Orioles?

The statement explicitly states, "Two days after committing a counter proposal would be made...." It seems fairly clear-cut. At least their statement does. I can't attest to the honesty of their statement.

The statement by the MLBPA provided by Sports Guy on the previous page said as much. I don't know if that is true, but I would be surpised if they would put out such a bald-faced lie.

It changes it for me. If the owners agreed to deliver a counter offer, and failed to do so, and went straight to pushing mediation, then they have broken a promise. Generally, a bad thing to do in negotiations. Let them deliver their counter offer- as they promised- first.

The Astros leveraged their farm system via trades more than FA. At least initially.

It's been like that for 50+ years. We've never lost a whole season before. And we won't this time either.

So what are you even arguing about? You wouldn't sign Correa but you want the O's to? Or something like that? P.S. The Rays went from 66 wins to 97. The Cubs went from 66 to 97 in two years. The Stros went from 51 wins to 86 in two years. None of these teams signed a major free agent in order to do it either. I expect the Orioles to get in that 66 win area this year. And I hope true competitveness comes in 2024. I keep mentioning that I've been more accurate in my predictions the last few years than 90% of the board because it's a fact. And because you keep using your predictions as basis for your projected moves. Which time and again have proven to overrate the O's baseline talent and been premature in when expecting the MiL talent to influence the W-L record at the ML level.

Theoretically, yes. And it's why I am even willing to entertain the thought. But it comes with risk. And you point out: opportunity cost. I find it funny that the poster who has explicitly stated he wouldn't sign Correa, now wants to use Correa as yet another cudgel.

Probably cause it's a bad one.

Again, you can think "could" and "should" all you want. Others have a different opinion. And in my case, an opinion that has been far more accurate. There's no need to make hyperbolic analogies. There's a world of difference between bringing up young players to a last place team and paying 30+ million to an external free agent to a last place team. As far as they aren't going from 60 to 95 wins, that's actually proven time and again largely how these rebuilds go. If they work. The Rays did it. The Cubs did it. The Astros did it over two years.

Yeah, signing Correa could and maybe should lead to 72 wins next year. Guess what? You're still finishing in last place in this division.

You expect them to lockout the whole season? I'd take that bet in a heartbeat.

If the owners were supposed to deliver a counter offer, and failed to do so, that changes the situation for me.

I mean, I guess opinions vary on how good this team will be this year. I don't think anyone can make a good argument though that adding Carlos Correa to this team next year somehow makes them competitive. Maybe if you squint and EVERYTHING goes right you could see it come together in 23. I think it's fair to point out I've been one of the more pessimistic predictors of the O's the last few years. I think it's also fair to point out I've been one of the more accurate.

You might not like reading it, but you immediately appeal to the logic of it. If you're worried about the backend of the contract, and not the frontend, then you want the frontend to be as impactful as possible on Ws and Ls that lead to playoff appearances. If you sign a guy to a 7 year contract you think is going to be rough the last year or two, and you aren't really going to compete in the first two years of the contract anyway, what have you gained? And more importantly, what have you gained that wouldn't be available later with less risk?

I'm not so sure- as far as FA contracts go- it will be atrocious. He's as good a bet as Manny was imo, and Manny's contract is working out pretty well for the Padres- with the obvious caveat that there's a ways to go. My issue with it would be that I don't think we're one year away from legitimately competing, and the opportunity cost. Paying Correa 30 million a year for 5 WAR is well enough. Paying 1:1 500 K a year for 5 WAR is how you win in this division.

I find it refreshing. The ol' "Let's disagree to agree."