Pickles

I don't see it happening either, but the possibility is not non-existent. Sisco showed some warning signs in AAA for sure. But it's not as if that season was awful. And up to that point he'd hit like 320/400 through the minor leagues at young ages. And gotten really good scouting reports. And here he is. With a 203 career batting average. It's hard to hit 300 consistently in the bigs. Another guy that has been in the news lately is also relevant. Howie Kendrick. Drafted out of high school, he hit in the 360s over 1500 abs in the minors. Scouts said he would win batting titles. Howie Kendrick has never hit 300 in a season in which he has qualified for the batting title. It's hard to hit 300 consistently in the bigs.

I don't want to get too hung up on the specific WAR number because I think it is flawed. I just pointing out the very high offensive bar a guy has to surpass if he essentially is an average defensive first baseman.

It's funny but I almost feel as if Jones is a bit underrated around here. Call it recency bias, but I think people really underrate his defense, because they remember when he was old, and they rely on numbers which I think are really flawed. I don't think Jones was winning GGs while being a negative in the field, which some of the stats will tell you. Not in his prime. I think, and this is true of Markakis too, that their career WAR values are suppressed by defensive statistics which I don't fully trust. Not to say that either of these guys are anymore than the Hall of Very Good, but they were ours, and they led us out of the darkness.

Here's my reasoning that this is too high for here: I think his days as a SP are over. He got BAD results last year starting. Go look at the numbers. He was the worst of the AA starters by far. Between not getting results, and the arduous process of building him up to the point he could throw 180 innings a year, imo it's safe to say he won't start anymore. So he's a BP guy. Ok, fine. He can still have a future here, and help. However, on a "Who would you rather have?" kind of evaluation, anybody who has MOR upside is more valuable. Unless you think Harvey goes full Britton in the pen. So if you want to rank him over Akin? Sure, I get it. But over Baumann, in particular, I don't see it.

That's largely how I felt about.

Should have looked at this before I picked 7 and 8.

I think Henderson is the first upside guy the OH staff loves. And I think they like Baumann more than Lowther or Kremer. I don't really think Harvey has any place this high on the list.

I'll go ahead and say "No."

Thanks for the write ups Tony. I'm 6 for 6 so far. What I'm waiting to hear about is some pitcher in A ball not getting any hype. You've been the first on a bunch of trains that reached their destination.

Oh, if they all do that we'll be pretty competitive pretty soon. That ain't happening. I definitely believe Mountcastle has the highest floor. And that really isn't close. But I have to be honest, when I look at it I see .280/320/500 first baseman. Nothing wrong with that. But I'd rather have either of the other two guys if they approximate their ceilings. And yes, it is very close among these three. As always, the discussion breaks down into tiers, and I think all of these three guys fall on the same tier for me.

Nothing wrong with it at all. But I personally think both Hays and Diaz have higher ceilings than that. If either of them put up a 900 ops (which is not outside the realm of possibility) they'll very likely exceed 4 WAR.

I believe in the bat too. I'd be very surprised if he pulled a Sisco. But there's a reason it's extremely rare to hit .300 every year in the major leagues.

If he consistently hits .300 in the big leagues then he should definitely be ranked higher than Hays and Diaz.

I didn't say failed. I actually wrote he has a higher floor than Hays and Diaz. Look at Mancini. He played damn near every day this year and put up a 900 ops. He was terrific. He was also worth 3.3 wins. Even if you want to grant him some defensive value for whatever reason, he's worth like 4 war a year. And I think that is a real nice projection for Mountcastle. To see him becoming an "all-star" caliber player you have to really believe in the bat in a way I don't.

Back to Mountcastle: This is my first personal divergence from the OH list. I would have Mountcastle below Hays and Diaz. I have no faith in Mountcastle to provide any defensive or baserunning value. I like the bat- don't love it- mainly for the well-hashed concern over his plate discipline. It's very difficult to project any minor leaguer to be a consistent .300 hitter in the majors. As a bat-only first baseman without ob skills, he's going to have to hit .300 to be an above average regular. I think he has a higher floor than the two mentioned earlier, but I think he has a lower ceiling.

Something worth noting, is the O's were real soft with Grayson and Adam in terms of innings pitched. Both only threw about 80+. Both are a few years even with ideal development away from being able to throw 150 innings in a major league rotation. They will, obviously, both be brought along very slowly.

Seen this coming a mile away. And I agree.

To the question at hand, I think first you have to ask yourself how much playing time each will get and how valuable you think they will be in that playing time. I think Mountcastle gets around 400 abs, regardless of the exact day he comes up. I'd like to see him put up a WAR. I think he'll hit ok- certainly not middle of the order guy right away- but I think he'll play enough outfield that his defense will bring his value down quite a bit. I think Hays is handed the CF job from the jump. I don't think he gets 700 abs or anything, because he's never shown that kind of ability to stay healthy. I think he can get as many bats as he stays healthy for, which I'd ballpark around 550. I'd like to see him put up 2 WAR. I would not be shocked if he significantly outperformed this. I would also not be shocked if he can't stay healthy and is middling. I was disappointed in what I saw of Stewart. I think they'll give him a chance this year and give him some PAs, especially early. Frankly, Mountcastle is going to take a lot of Stewart's abs when he does arrive. His playing time will fluctuate the most with how he is performing this year the most out of these guys. 300 abs and 1 WAR might even be ambitious. So, I think 1200 abs or so and 4 WAR or so, is a median guesstimate for their cumulative impact next year.

Well, maybe. I could see that happening. I wouldn't punt him for nothing over 2 mil in salary. That's just me. If they do that, well, more power to them.

Well, to be fair, my initial ask was far higher than the article you provided sets the #. I said 9.8; the article said 9.1, so you could take that down a bit. I think it is very reasonable to think he ends up below 9. I think it is likely he ends up below 8.8. I don't think the difference between 9.1 and 7.7 is going to be much of a determining factor for how the O's can allocate their resources.

I think the most likely outcome is they settle. He doesn't ask for 10. He asks for like 9.8. The O's offer 7.7. They settle at 8.6.

I would take the under.

What if you had already made 100 million? Would it be worth it then?

I know the stats don't tell the whole story, certainly at that level, but the O's are well represented on the pitching side. In addition to their top 3 that you mentioned, they have another 5 or so guys in the top 50 of the league era-wise. That hitting side is the complete opposite. Sorted by OPS, besides De La Rosa, who is about 15th overall, the O's don't have another guy in the top 100 it looks to me. While there may be some environmental factors involved, I think it is safe to say the pitching for the O's in the DSL is more promising.

Sounds like Bedard. Minus the curve. That's not a bad prospect.