ChosenOne21

Because they generally won't play for less if they have other options? It's pretty hard to add outside talent for below market rates.

I mean, it's a nice article. Even if he's stating the obvious, he's stating it really well and showing how the O's aren't acting like any other team in their position seemingly would. Then he calls Means an innings eater and Kremer a reasonable fifth starter and I wonder if he's sniffing glue.

I think that package is pretty light for Lazardo. The Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo and be right to do so. I think you're looking at something like Mayo + Ortiz + Povich/Santander + an interesting low minors guy or two for Lazardo.

I appreciate that Voth's agent got him a major league deal. I would have thought for sure he'd have to settle for minor leagues

It shouldn't be that hard to do WAR for the minors. Replacement would be the expected performance of an average performer/organizational guy in the league below if he were to be promoted. Or you take the average line from the league below and apply the adjustment for a higher league to it.

I'm honestly not a fan of Povich, McDermott or Johnson. Johnson is almost certainly a reliever, I'm not sure Povich will be consistent enough to have success as an MLB starter, and McDermott seems to be back of the rotation at best. I'd rather keep DeLeon and Baumeister because they at least have a chance to be more than that.

I would really hope Cowser is the plan A over Hilliard if Cowser is still here.

Bradish is awesome, but every time I see something like that I always wonder how he did over his last 39 starts. They drew the line there for a reason and that reason is probably to make him look better than he is.

For me Holiday, Basallo, Mayo are basically untouchable. I'd trade Kjerstad or Cowser, but probably not both. Don't have a huge preference on who stays.

I remember a few months ago calculating what Cease's ERA would have been if he had the Orioles' defense behind him and it was something like 4.01-4.07. So it's not unreasonable to say our pitchers would have been about half a run of ERA worse if they pitched for the Sox. Let's compare apples to apples here. I would 100% take Kyle Bradish over Dylan Cease. I think it is extremely likely Grayson Rodriguez has a better season than him as well. After that, I think I want Cease more than the other pitchers you mentioned. Means is a pretty huge question mark coming back from TJ and never really making it through a whole year healthy, while Cease has been the picture of health. I think Kremer's 3.23 was a fluke and he's likely a 4.00-4.25 ERA or so pitcher going forward. I think Cease has more upside. Wells hasn't made it through a full year in the rotation yet, and while I think there's a good chance he pitches better than Cease while he's there, I'm not sure he can keep it up for a full year. You'd have to be wearing orange-colored glasses to pick any of those pitchers over Cease except for Bradish and Rodriguez.

Hypothetically you save money if the player's performance takes a big step up, but I agree it's not usually a good idea.

Irvin or Wells for the last slot. I really don't get the people who think Hall is a starting pitcher at this point.

I'd say no for the simple fact that every year most teams probably have several guys they'd like to trade, but can't work out a deal. I can't imagine Ryan O'Hearn is high on anyone's priority list.

I'd probably do Cowser, Povich, Beavers. I'm guessing that might be slightly more value than Ortiz, but split among two players.

I don't know. They want pitching and we don't have it. Maybe Povich+?

I think Cowser + Ortiz is about the absolute highest I'd go for Cease. If they wanted a low minors guy or two who I wasn't particularly a fan of, I'd probably throw them in and say, "Sure, whatever." That offer isn't bonkers, but it's a bit steep, IMO.

Fair point. I thought Grod threw less than that. While Grod isn't necessarily injury prone, Cease has pretty much been the picture of health, so I still give him the edge though.

Is it really so hard to believe that someone could prefer Grod's 2024 over Cease's? I think Grod is more likely to have a better ERA than Cease, although I think it's likely Cease throws more innings

Dylan Cease is probably 180 innings of 3.90-4.10ERA. That's not an ace, but that's still incredibly valuable. And there's always the chance, albeit small, that he repeats 2022.

He's not a guy I'd be confident outbidding five other teams for. Then again, is anyone going to guarantee him a second year? He probably won't be that expensive regardless.

It's hard for me to get worked up about 1B, because we could probably plug that hole with Coby Mayo if we had to. Heck, we've got multiple decent options for every position on the dirt. I voted CF, because Mullins isn't getting younger or better and we have no one great ready to take over. I don't believe Cowser is a CF. Issues with Hays aside, I'm pretty sure we could cover him with Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, etc. if we had to. Same for Santander.

From Tony's writeup: Ortiz can hit good fastballs, but struggles at time with good offspeed pitches and hit too many balls on the ground, especially at the major league level. There are some concerns that Ortiz hits too many good offspeed pitches on the ground and he'll chase occasionally as well. His pull power also may not play in cavernous Camden Yards, but he still should be able to hit for gap power. I'm not saying he won't hit enough to be useful, but there's a real chance he doesn't hit enough to be especially valuable. He really sounds like a guy whose power vanishes at the MLB level, and the left field wall isn't going to do him any favors. Given regular playing time, I think he'll likely have at least one 3-win season, but I'm guessing his baseline is going to be closer to 2.

I would love it if Ortiz is the headliner. I think he'll be a useful major leaguer, but I just don't believe in the bat at the MLB level.

I'd do 1, 2, and 5, probably.

Couldn't agree more. Technically if you're a top-30 pitcher in MLB, you should be a #1. 31-60 a #2, etc. Funny enough, if we go by 2023 ERA from pitchers who qualified for the title, Dean Kremer is ranked #30. He would, by definition (and again I'm just using ERA here) be the "best" pitcher on at least one team in MLB. This would make him a #1. And yet some people on this board can't wait to get rid of him to improve the rotation. If we go by ERA of pitchers who threw at least 100 innings as a starting pitcher, Tyler Wells is 53rd and Dean Kremer is 58th. They would, by definition, be the second best starting pitchers on multiple teams. They'd be low-end #2's Grayson Rodriguez comes in at 71st, making him a #3 (and yes, I know he's trending up). Kyle freaking Gibson was 87th, making him a low-end #3. Bryce Miller, a popular trade target here, is 70th. Dylan Cease is 82nd (and yes, I know there's #1 upside here). Jack freaking Flaherty is #100, making him a #4. There were only 117 pitchers who threw 100 innings as a starting pitcher last year. You'd have to set the innings limit at 70 to even get 150 pitchers. People massively, massively, overestimate how much even mediocre pitching talent is out there.