ChosenOne21

He's going to miss half of 2024 and he has an opt out at the end of the year. He's not exactly cheap either.

I'm guessing the 10th in ERA 25th in fWAR is because they're projecting low innings totals from our starters. Fangraphs seems to do this with all younger pitchers. "Oh, he only threw 140 innings in MLB last year? Better project him for similar next year, even if there's no reason to suspect he won't hit 180-190 if healthy." And our lack of depth is then what drops us down to 25th in fWAR, because those innings have to go somewhere. If our starters are healthy and as effective as last year, we'll be a top-10 rotation. I think you need to ding us somewhat for the chances of that not happening, but 25th seems super low. Means is a definite injury risk, and Wells is a risk to run out of gas, but Bradish, Kremer, and Irvin seem as likely to stay healthy as any pitcher in MLB. Grod is a bit of a wild card there.

Unless he's traded, it's almost certainly Westburg. Holliday is the dark horse. If Westburg goes, then it might be Ortiz. I just don't see it with Urias/Norby unless Elias thinks Holliday really needs more AAA time and Westburg and Ortiz are gone or hurt.

There's hoarding prospects and being a prospect hoarder (like the TV show/psychological condition). I'm really hoping he isn't the latter, but you're right. This offseason will tell us. He can't possibly use all those players. Some of them need to go.

And no one ever gets hurt, regresses, gets less lucky or doesn't immediately live up to expectations. If you're setting the O/U for Orioles wins next year at 101.5, I'm slamming my money down on the under. They're going to be great, but it's really hard to win more than 100 games and we got lucky more than we got unlucky by a lot.

Would jump all over that. Can't imagine the Sox will.

It's the Rays, though. They'll probably find 8 WAR on the scrapheap/internal promotions

I might be wrong, but wasn't his start to the year so hot that if he performed to career norms the rest of the way he'd have been over .700? He would have had to have gone from hitting better than ever before to worse than ever before over the course of a single year. I don't blame people for not seeing that, but kudos to Sports Guy anyway.

I'm really confused here. I know you understand what a hypothetical is, and that my post was one. Obviously Ohtani and Yamamoto won't play for the Orioles next year. Equally obviously, the Orioles would be a better team if they did. Sure, LAD won't win more games if Ohtani and Yamamoto spend all or most of the year on the IL, but if I'm them I'm happy to take that chance. Most likely that won't happen and the upside is enormous. You say talent matters and expensive payrolls don't. I agree that the O's shouldn't spend just to spend, but signing arguably the greatest active player and likely best FA pitcher isn't doing that. Are we going to win a lot of games without signing those players? Most likely. But why not want your team to compete for the best talent in all areas? I get it if the option is choosing between being the Rays and the Yankees and deciding you want to be the underdog, but why not be both? Why not be the Dodgers? If the Orioles truly aren't going to pursue top free agent talent, that doesn't mean they can't be a successful team. But that's going to make it harder for them, and I don't see the upside.

How many more games do you think we win next year with Ohtani and Yamamoto on the roster?

I'll be shocked if Ortiz ever has a MLB season where he OPSes .800. That said, he doesn't need to do that to be valuable. I'll bet his peak is a few seasons of OPS around .700 with plus to double plus SS defense.

Adley is such a class act. I remember when he was signing autographs with Little Leaguers, he asked for theirs in return for his. That's got to be a moment for a young baseball fan.

It seemed really plausible, because the Orioles wanted to draft Bruce badly and would have if he fell to them, but the Reds took him with the pick right before. So we got Brandon Snyder instead...

Disgusting condiment... ...Oh, you meant the prospect. Yeah, he's pretty good.

You never know, but you have a pretty good idea. I'm going to guess that the overwhelming majority of players who were at one time their team's #71 prospect never sniff the majors let alone have a meaningful career there. This is also true of the vast majority of #17 prospects. I'm not saying we shouldn't sign Dominican players as teenagers. I'm saying there are dozens of players with similar profiles to Espinal that can be had for a song, so it's not worth fretting that we traded him. We'll probably sign a couple of "Espinals" in January. I'm not saying Espinal can't have a major league career, but I'd put the odds well under 1%. I think the odds Heasley has a successful season for us are greater than 1%.

The one that was our 71st best prospect? I'm sure we could get his equivalent for peanuts from any other team.

Why not? Cesar Espinal probably has a less than 1% chance of an impactful major-league career. As for the Jason Berken comp, Berken did have a 3.03 as a reliever in 2010. If Heasley does that, the trade is a win.

This is a bit much. All he's saying is that Chicago might not take that deal. And they might not, even if it is a fair or better return for Cease, because Chicago seems to be overvaluing him. Maybe that's a negotiating tactic, or maybe they don't want to trade him unless they're really blown away. That does seem to be the case. Case in point: they haven't traded Cease.

I think something around Kjerstad or Cowser + Ortiz or Norby or Westburg + a third piece like Beavers could be fair and might actually happen.

If I'm the White Sox, I probably start negotiations there, knowing I'll end up with less. Mayo for Cease is reasonably fair. No way they're throwing in Basallo, too.

I think there's a chance we could get him for a package centered around Colton Cowser, but you're absolutely right that the Marlins would demand Mayo or Basallo. I wouldn't want to make that deal, but I'd strongly consider Mayo or Basallo and sending maybe one of Ortiz/Hall/Povich, but that would be close to my limit. Maybe if they wanted a low minors guy I wasn't a fan of, I'd throw him in, too.

I think that's debatable. Luzardo is younger and has done it for an extra year. His FIP is more in line with his actual numbers than Bradish as well. Granted, Bradish has put up a sub-3.00 ERA and Luzardo has not, but I think they're close enough in value that the analogy works. In any case, the package isn't close to enough for either player. Could have sworn Santander missed some time with injuries in the past two years. Wasn't there some nagging thing one year that was sapping his performance? Anyway, even a 100% healthy Santander isn't all that valuable to most clubs. Sure, he's a bit of a bargain, but not that crazy of a bargain. Also, not a single club in baseball cares what his RBI total is. Santander is 100% not the kind of player you extend and especially not one you trade for and extend. No chance anyone is doing that. I'm not sure Santander's mother values him as much as you do There's also no way Pasquantino was anywhere close to the full package for Luzardo.

Just to be clear, you are talking about trading for Jesus Luzardo, right? Santander is a 3 WAR player if healthy. He also only has one year of control left and will probably cost around $12 million. That limits his value. Ortiz fills the SS need, sure. Willems doesn't help them out at catcher next year or probably ever. Dude is a longshot to be a meaningful contributor at the ML level. If the Marlins came to you asking for Bradish and offering the equivalent of Santander, Ortiz, Willems, you'd laugh them out of the room. Even if the O's had needs at OF, SS and C

I'll have what you're having

That's not even half of what we'd have to trade for Luzardo. They're not going to trade a TOR with three years of control for two years of a solid, increasingly expensive and injury prone outfielder, a platoon first baseman with a sketchy track record and one year of control, a solid infield prospect and a solid pitching prospect. Like, maybe they don't just slam the phone down if they're in love with Ortiz and Povich. Would you trade Kyle Bradish for those guys? Luzardo is arguably more valuable. You MIGHT be able to get away with Colton Cowser as the headliner, but they'll probably demand Mayo or Basallo and not budge. Santander, Ortiz, and Willems is a total fantasy. The kind of trade you force through in a video game with a cheat code. I think the absolute minimum we might be able to get him for is Cowser, two out of three of Ortiz, Hall, Povich, and two low minors guys they really like. Maybe De Leon and someone else?