ChosenOne21

I'm kind of shocked he got that much, but I guess he's very young for a free agent and has had an incredible season or two.

I'm just not a believer in Hall as a SP

Taxes? At the numbers we're talking about I doubt it makes that much of a difference. But possible. Not sure what you mean by diversification here. If Ohtani wants cashflow when his endorsements are less, he could take the money up front and invest it. Can't imagine this is it. Massive sticker number is the best explanation I've heard other than helping the Dodgers afford more players. Could be part of it for sure. I'm not sure how much public perception of helping he's getting. He's helping the team buck the spirit of the luxury tax rule. There have been a ton words written out there talking about what the deal really is.

I understand the NPV and cap hit for the contract is $46 million a year. Explain to me why the Dodgers are only paying him $2 million next year then. Why not just pay him the $46 million? The answer, and what Ohtani himself seems to believe, is that the Dodgers don't have infinite money and by only paying him $2 million next year they can afford to pay more star players and build a better team around him. And yes, I agree it would be unlikely for my proposed scenario to happen. But didn't LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh do something similar with the Miami Heat? Even if unlikely, why even allow the possibility? Is it the biggest issue facing baseball? Not even close, but that doesn't mean it's not a potential problem.

I know it's not breaking any rules. I'm saying it should be against the rules. If we allow this sort of thing, what's to stop the top handful of players in the sport from getting together, agreeing to sign with the same team, and agreeing to defer huge amounts of money so they can win a bunch of championships? Would that be good for baseball? Are you okay with that being allowed because the team they choose might be the Orioles? To be crystal clear, I'm not saying teams shouldn't be allowed to defer any money. I think they should set a reasonable limit on it like 25% of the contract so you don't end up paying a bunch of superstars chump change in order to have a hypercompetitive window.

You're certainly allowed to disagree, but I'd like to understand why. Isn't the point of the luxury tax to make it harder for rich teams to just buy all the good players? Paying Shohei Ohtani $2 million now so you can buy a bunch more good players to support him seems to fly in the face of that, even if it (possibly) hurts their financial flexibility the ten years after he's done playing for them.

I would imagine they force the team to do this, but then what's the actual point? Why not just give Shohei the $46 million now and let him grow it into $70 instead of you doing that yourself?

It shouldn't be

I guess my real issue is that they're paying him $2 million a year now so they can afford more talent while they have him. Seems to be skirting the spirit of the cap if not the letter.

I feel like these massive deferrals are going to be addressed next time there's negotiations around the cap. You really shouldn't be able to get away with paying Ohtani $70 million while only having $46 of it count against your cap

Seriously doubt he's getting posted though. Or that the Orioles would sign him if he was.

I think the bullpen has a great chance to still be good next year, but I can't imagine it will be as good without Bautista.

Do we know what the second place Ohtani offer was?

Well, at least he's not in our division. Significant deferred money. Depending on how much, I might have offered him that contract. Oh well.

Isn't scoring inherited runners significantly luck based? Or am I thinking of strand rate? Also worth nothing his rate of inherited runners scoring year before last was 31%

Do you know what average means?

So are Grod and Kremer not above average?

"He had a bad game so he's not above average."

What would you say the chances are that Povich is an above average SP in the majors? I give it about 10-15%. Again, I'd rather roll the dice on that than clone Bryan Baker, but I can easily imagine someone knowing more about Povich thinking he's overvalued and trading him for a solid reliever that he likes. If Bryan Baker doesn't make the Orioles this year, I think that says more about the other relievers we have than him. Bryan Baker would be in the bullpens of two-thirds of the teams in MLB at least. I think I'm done replying to this until someone demonstrates, with numbers, that Bryan Baker is not an above average relief pitcher. I've posted numbers suggesting he is.

I would say the Orioles are well above average at picking relievers off the scrap heap and turning them into useful pitchers. The Orioles could certainly replace Bryan Baker off the scrapheap. Doesn't mean that A: he's not valuable and B: other teams can easily do something similar.

He's a question mark, but so are virtually all relievers. Is he more erratic than the average reliever? Maybe, but the overall numbers stack up well. Baker has had two successful major league seasons. Povich has had zero. Yes, Povich has the chance to be more valuable than Baker, but he also has the chance to be worse. All I'm saying is that Bryan Baker is better than people think, and it's entirely possible that Mike Elias, who knows way more about Cade Povich than any of us, ends up trading him for less than we think he's worth and ends up winning the trade.

There are guys with above average relief pitcher stats on waivers to the point where they're a dime a dozen? How is it some teams have awful bullpens then?

Personally I'd rather roll the die on Povich, but I can imagine a team not really believing in him and wanting to stabilize their bullpen.

I would guess the average reliever spends some time in the minors each year

Average reliever ERA: 4.17 Baker: 3.60 Average reliever K/9: 9.1 Baker: 10.2 Average reliever HR/9: 1.09 Baker: 0.80 Average reliever WHIP: 1.324 Baker: 1.267 I will admit Baker gives up an above average amount of walks, but the overall package is clearly above average for a relief pitcher. As to whether or not he's an above average middle reliever, I guess that depends on how you define that. A quick glance shows his ERA to be average for all pitchers who pitched in the sixth or seventh inning. I can't imagine there are many if any bullpens where he wouldn't have a role.