ChosenOne21

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control. If you'd rather have Povich in the organization than Baker, that's fine. But when you bake in the risk, I don't think the trade values valuation is necessarily wrong.

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

I have. What makes you skeptical? His numbers aren't as good as the first half where he was basically God with a baseball in his hand, but they're still great.

I have no idea. A lot of people on this board don't like Yennier Cano either

So it looks like if Cease had the same level of defense behind him that Kyle Bradish did, his ERA last year would have been 4.02. I think that's how Cease should be valued. He's two years of fairly cheap 180 IP/4.00 ERA. I'd be willing to value him a little higher than that because there's some chance he recaptures his Cy Young form. Those kind of pitchers don't grow on trees. Connor Norby as a headliner doesn't get you there. You probably need to start talks with Cowser or Kjerstad.

I'd give it 50%, maybe less. He does have a brand new elbow. I'm not saying I'd offer Means a 4/80 or 5/90 extension right now. Just saying that's what it would probably take to get him to sign on the line right now assuming the elbow injury is actually incredibly minor.

I'm not saying Means should get Nola's contract. I'm just saying (when healthy) they're similarly effective pitchers. I don't think the differences in their health are worth the difference between the 2/31 proposed extension for Means and the 7/172 Nola got. If I'm Means's agent, unless the elbow is way worse than reported, I'm advising him to decline wildcard's extension offer.

If he throws 150-160 innings of 3.50-3.70 ERA ball, someone will pay him that. Look what Aaron Nola got for putting up two ERAs over 4.5 in the last three seasons. He's only a year younger than Means! And that was with a hometown discount.

What makes you think Prieto is remotely in the same conversation as a prospect as Norby and Povich (#11 and #13) on the list. For that matter, what makes you think he's more than Hanser Alberto or Terrin Vavra at the ML level?

I'd offer him that. Zero chance he takes it. You'd probably have to get into 4/80 or 5/90 territory before he even considers it.

Shades of Alex Wells?

I'm not saying the deal wouldn't make us a better team. I'm saying it's a pretty considerable overpay. BTW, I think you're really undervaluing Baker. Above-average relief pitchers with four years of team control don't grow on trees.

You would trade a 2-3 WAR infielder with three more years of control and more for one year of a 3 WAR pitcher? I wouldn't.

Two out of three of Mateo/Baumann/Akin would be pretty fair, but I doubt the Mets do that. Baker and Urias would be pretty significant overpays.

Gotta love that our 30th best prospect has a chance to be a 4-pitch back of the rotation starter. Thanks again for all the writeups, Tony!

I don't think we're going to win 101 again, but I think we're quite likely to win 95. Curtain for me, too.

Unless they're free agents or on another team. Then there's too much risk they'll stink in an Orioles uniform.

With the possible exception of Irvin, I don't want to be relying on any of those players to make starts next year. Now if one of them is blowing away AAA hitters as a starter and we have an opening, that's a different story. This is what I meant when I said our AAA depth is a question mark. I don't think any of McDermott, Povich, or Armbruster are ML ready, and even if they become ready during the year there's no guarantee they hit the ground running. Also, I'd say there's maybe a 5-10% chance at this point that DL Hall can/will be a ML starting pitcher.

Do you have any information that says Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Kremer and Wells will have healthy seasons next year?

So what's your point? That the Orioles are usually/always going to do better than what would be prudent to predict? And why is that exactly? Look, I'm not saying you ARE wrong. I'm saying it would be good to sign a few pitchers in case you are.

I'm okay with three years on Giolito or Stroman. Stroman doesn't have any red flags I could find except that his walk rate went up last year. FIP thinks he was better last year than the year before when his walk rate was lower though. I'm inclined to believe Giolito's last twelve starts were somewhat of an aberration, and I think our pitching development staff can get him back on track. Wacha is in a similar position to Stroman with an elevated walk rate last year, but still good results. He's got less of a track record though. Wouldn't hate two years with an option. Lugo's numbers look pretty good, but he's the oldest of the bunch and was only a dedicated starter for the first time since 2017 last year. I'd prefer not to go three years on him, but it wouldn't be the worst thing. Could probably be moved to the pen just fine if he can't start. There's some risk there, but there's also risk relying on our current group to stay healthy and effective. Also note that Means is gone after next year, so we're going to have to find someone to replace him eventually. There's plenty of reason to believe he won't improve on his second half next year. Sophomore slumps are real things that happen, he could get hurt, he hasn't been the picture of consistency in his career. The future is bright, but that doesn't mean he's going to be an ace next year. Bradish was one of the best starters in baseball LAST SEASON. His track record is one mediocre year and one great year. I think he will be excellent, and could be a top pitcher again next year, but I think the safe bet is to project some regression.

I love both those guys, but this is premature. GRod had an ERA of, what, 4.70 on the year (much better in the second half). He could easily sophomore slump. There's a good chance that was Bradish's career year. It wouldn't shock me if he was more of a 3.50-3.70 guy going forward.

We have 4.5 starters on paper, but it's pretty likely two of them miss considerable time with an injury. Our AAA starter depth is a pretty big question mark, so I would like it if we got another solid starter or even two.

That deal is massively lopsided. That's about half of what you'd have to trade for a pitcher with Bradish's level of skill with that many years of team control

You'd probably have to add someone like Povich/Fabian to that deal before the Mariners would consider it