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Scrat1

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Scrat1 last won the day on February 6 2011

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About Scrat1

  • Birthday 03/05/1985

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    Richmond
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Jake Arrieta; Matt Wieters; Brad Bergesen; Koji Uehara; Robert Andino
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Cal

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  1. I was and am in this camp as well. Note my comment on page 2 or 3: "I hate it." I hated the Ed Rod trade as well. Each one of these moves is kinda sorta justifiable, but taken in aggregate they're idiotic and a big reason why we're in the position we're in today. DD mostly lost me after the Davies trade. I no longer have faith in his process.
  2. 1/6 is not that small of a sample. Obviously those nine games mean absolutely nothing in terms of the type of player Parra is, but they do matter in the sense that the already very thin marginal gain from Snider to Parra is that much thinner. Parra is pretty clearly a better player than Snider, but he's not so much better that he's guaranteed to outplay Snider over the course of two months. In fact, there is a chance that Snider would outplay Parra, even if Parra is the better player. I'm pulling these numbers out of my netherregions, but let's just say 75/25 that Parra outplays Snider to Snider outplays Parra over the period of two months. That's probably pretty generous to Parra, but whatever. Now, what about the odds that they play similar enough to eachother that there is no effect on the Orioles win/loss record. I'd put that at at least 40%, considering how close their career numbers are. That leaves only 35% chance that Parra makes any sort of difference. That's a pretty narrow margin, a margin we paid Davies for, and with 1/6 of his games already played for the Orioles, that margin has become even more narrow. We can quibble about all of those percentages--obviously they are not dead on--but I'm just using them to roughly illustrate how those 9 games of terrible numbers do matter in terms of the odds that Parra showing he was an improvement over Snider, let alone enough of an improvement to make any difference/justify the cost of Davies.
  3. Is it? It's early, yes, but as I said earlier, there isn't all that much of the season left. He's been bad and even if he hits .800 the rest of the season, which isn't likely, he'll still end the season at around .750. And that's pretty optimistic. You may be right that it's too early. But it's definitely not "way" too early.
  4. Well, like with many eyeball tests, the numbers don't bear this out. I don't necessarily believe Snider is a better player, but the gap between the two certainly wasn't worth Davies.
  5. Parra, since joining the Orioles: .211/.268/.316. He's actually been worth negative WAR. We gave up one of our top prospects for the privilege of hurting our team, both in the future and the present. Small sample size, sure, but we're at the point of the season where there are only small samples left. It was pretty much a coin toss on who would perform better between Snider and Davies with only a couple months to play. Just a terrible trade. This is not just hindsight either. The indicators were there: career year inflated with an unsustainable BABIP. It's surprising that he has been this bad, but not that he's regressed significantly.
  6. Yeah, no GM is perfect. I've been disappointed with nearly all of DD's trades and his practice of "selling" draft picks, but he's certainly got strengths, including restraint in free agency, which is a big one. At this point, I hope he sticks around, but if he goes to Toronto this offseason it won't bother me as much as would have last offseason.
  7. As I've made clear, I hate this trade. Hopefully he just goes nuts, though, gets us to the playoffs and we can hit him with a QO.
  8. Right. He's your sixth guy, so you don't have to tear your hair out when one of your starters inevitably goes down with an injury. And that's more or less what he already is. It's quite possible he becomes a legitimate back end starter, but he doesn't have to be that in order to be more valuable than a marginal upgrade of Parra over Snider.
  9. Maybe so, if this were all in a vacuum. But it's not, because we had to trade Davies for him. I'd rather watch Davies.
  10. Yet you were using OPS to compare him and Snider. WAR is just doing the same thing, only with slightly more sophistication. Obviously there is no way to know exactly how many wins one player is going to contribute. It's a projection, but it's a way to measure one player's contribution relative to another. As you mentioned, there are only 60 games left, just not that much time to make an impact. Is Parra such an improvement over Snider that he can truly make a difference in just 60 days? I suspect not.
  11. You can't say this with any degree of confidence. Players are hot and cold throughout the season all the time.
  12. Well yeah, but in terms of marginal gain (~1 Win), vs. marginal loss (who knows? Maybe Mike Leake, maybe Miguel Gonzalez, maybe nothing), it's a terrible trade. The whole point of hording those guys is that some are going to hit and some are not. You know this.
  13. Note the projected rest-of-season projection. They tend to put more weight on a player's body of work than four months of unusually high numbers inflated by BABIP. If you expect Parra to keep hitting at .886, prepare to be disappointed. See: de Aza, just in reverse. Rarely are players dominant for an entire season, particularly ones who have no track record of doing so.
  14. Player A Career wOBA: .320; ROS projected (ZIPS): .334 Player B Career wOBA: .323; ROS projected (ZIPS): .322 Player A: Gerardo Parra Player B: Alejandro de Aza Remember how excited we were when we got Joe Gunkel for da Aza? Just traded one of our top pitching prospects for a guy marginally better. Duquette is playing a very expensive game of musical chairs.
  15. Right. And we know he's running an unsustainably high BABIP. His OPS is inflated and also out of line with career numbers. There's no reason at all to believe he'll hit .850+ the rest of the season. Expect numbers close to his career AKA not that much better than Snider.
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