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LookinUp

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Everything posted by LookinUp

  1. I think it's Mayo v Mayo's Contract v Urias. I'd love for the O's to get a sense of Mayo's openness to signing an extension and trading Urias. Otherwise, I think they'll just play the service time game with him, which I think stinks because I think he's every bit as ready as Holliday. I also think he'd have a chance to win the ROY award and net the draft pick. With that said, we already have a super version of Urias on the team. His name is Jordan Westburg and he's a huge upgrade. Urias is holding this team back. He can be a good player and great guy and that statement can still be true. He should be moved and the Mayo/Holliday era should begin.
  2. I accept that swing changes take real time, but would have hoped that he came to camp this spring with an obvious new swing. It's kind of disappointing that he didn't. That said, his other skills are tantalizing. We wait and hope that the swing develops enough to be passable in the majors.
  3. For what it's worth, I also assumed the worst, and still fear the worst. I fear he has some weakness in the UCL that will be realized when he's throwing with essentially max effort over 80+ pitches. I assume the O's saw the injury, treated it and are reimaging (not just relying on his physical/verbal feedback) to assess the degree to which it's healed. I'm not sure how perfect that science is, but all of this combined with him throwing off the mound makes me think it was very minor and they have a decent feeling that it has been treated.
  4. I haven't given any thought on where he would actually rank on my personal rankings, but it would be pretty high. I wonder how he compares to Chayce McDermott stuff wise. Seems like a similar type of profile to me. [EDIT: I see @Tony-OH has him at #21 (before the Ortiz trade). I was surprised he was that high. That's actually pretty aggressive and appropriately so, IMO. I definitely wouldn't have him lower, but our top 20 is ridiculous right now so I think he fits right where Tony put him.]
  5. I can only imagine what a @Tony-OH banned list might look like. I remember a kid from like WVU that kept coming back with different screen names and acting like a punk.
  6. Or...it wasn't as bad as we feared from the start. We really know next to nothing about this injury. Would it be weird for the O's to be overly cautious from the start, thus alarming people? I don't really think so. Is it possible this still ends in TJ surgery. Yes. I just think there's a wider range of outcomes than we've been entertaining. I believe that because I kind of doubt he'd be throwing off the mound already if this was initially very serious.
  7. Alas, Eric Birdland blocked me a year or two ago for calling out Crede Willems' weight. Sucks. I do like his videos. He does use that block button vigorously. lol
  8. I saw kids start to take throwing really serious at 11/12 years old. Certainly by 8th grade. It's the kids that take this seriously and have goals of pitching in highly competitive environments (top travel, top high schools, eventually college). For that type, arm care is really starting to take off.
  9. I think it tells us his issue was originally very small or he wouldn't be throwing off a mound. That doesn't mean his elbow will hold up. I think it means they think his issue might have been addressed by the treatment and they are on step 2 (with flat ground being step 1) of starting to test it and building him up. I think this is really good news. Not over the moon about it, but throwing off the mound is a substantial development.
  10. Did they accidentally repost last year's article?
  11. I feel like McDermott's secondaries are far and away better than Kremer's.
  12. If Holliday weren't in this org, we'd all be jumping up and down that Mayo should start the year on the roster and contend for the ROY award. You can't tell me that we're better with Urias than him. I get that it'll be tough having all of Holliday, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad graduate in the same year from a future contracts perspective, but I want Mayo on the ML roster on opening day. And while I think 2024 could be great for the Orioles, I think 2025 will be amazing.
  13. 1. I think the O's will want more development than you will want. Just because he could be a 2 WAR player doesn't mean that's the guy they want to promote. 2. I don't think he and Mullins will be an either/or option for the O's. My bet is they never get the deal they want for Mullins and we have .5-1.5 seasons with both on the 26 man roster.
  14. I don't think you appreciate how different you are than others. I'm not saying you're wrong, but if I was to look up a player's WAR, I'd go to BBref and tell you what it said. I know there's two different versions, but I don't know the difference and my base assumption is that the difference wouldn't be very significant. Maybe that's wrong, but I don't think it's subterfuge to not provide a citation for a WAR stat.
  15. Right. And I'm not saying Cowser will be the guy to really improve his profile. I'd put more money on Povich to be honest. Less on Fabian and Bradfield, though obviously I hope I'm wrong there. With that said, of everyone, I think Cowser almost gets the benefit of legit failure. That brings clarity. If he didn't get into the offseason with open eyes, I don't know who did. Hopefully that really benefits him because he, and all of the experts trying to help him, really should know what he has to work on.
  16. It's useful seeing the profiles about all of these guys, both from Tony and even from the national guys. I do tend to look at them differently though, and Cowser's the perfect example why. He's a highly rated prospect that plays good, but not great, outfield defense, has a good eye, good exit velos, but problems with offspeed stuff, LHP and premium velocity. To me, I care more about his problems than his ranking. I think we make a mistake when we look at prospect write-ups as if they're the finished product. The real value I gain is in understanding the profile and then (hopefully) seeing improvements. Look at McDermott. Last year he was a 2-pitch reliever in Law's eyes. Now there's more and he may be a starter. Bradish was similar. Means also took a jump forward. I don't love Bradfield's profile, but I have hope. I don't even know why I'm writing this, lol. Maybe it's a pep talk to people who think Cowser really will only be a 4th OF/platoon guy. I'm not saying he won't. I'm just saying that just because it's what he looked like last year or the year before doesn't mean that's where he'll settle as a player. I'm a huge believer in player development in general, what can be accomplished in the offseason, and the Oriole's current approach, so I expect continued improvement from guys like Povich, maybe Cowser, etc., and for those prospect write-ups to be proven premature when they say that they'll not get closer to their ceilings.
  17. I always get a kick out of national guys, or less informed local guys. I'm not saying that they never get a look or some intel that is better than yours, but it doesn't seem like it happens very often.
  18. Yeah, I don’t think Manfred is raising the MASN issue out of the blue. I assume Angelos and Rubinstein entered into their agreement with a future state of TV rights contemplated. Basically, I’m not saying MASN won’t hold up an ownership change, I’m saying those negotiations are way farther along than the report indicates.
  19. I think our payroll will look like a bell curve that starts well below the median payroll, goes up to a top 10 payroll, and then goes down some closer to the median. It won't be flat though. It'll be driven by talent. In other words, normal in a post Angelos world.
  20. Yes, they were outliers, but they still weren't that valuable in the aggregate. I do think this type of player can play a massive role within the context of a team, but I don't see a path to a really high WAR career unless he hits the ball with authority. [Edit: As RZNJ points out, it's important to acknowledge that his BB rate/swing decisions seem better than those guys, which is great.]
  21. I think they think of him as a starter, but that doesn’t mean he is a starter this year. I really think he could be our electric arm out of the bullpen.
  22. I have a feeling that McDermott will be our DL Hall replacement, just not until July or August at least. He’s the guy who will miss bats.
  23. I think the more accurate question is how Holliday’s timeline influenced the Os approach to trading Ortiz. Ortiz should never be a barrier to Holliday.
  24. Very sarcastic, snarky, judgmental, know-it-all type of personality. Doesn't seem like he ever played a sport. He's kind of in a Jason LaCanfora category for me. Both were in DC. Didn't like them there either.
  25. Even after the trade, there's a still a log jam of outfielders and infielders. Some guys are going to be really sick of Norfolk really soon (they already are).
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