health55

Plenty of timely material for an assigned sports franchise valuation in my current sports finance course through Adley Rutschman's alma mater.

Gregory Santos likely just replaces the recently traded Justin Topa in the Seattle bullpen.

Last year this poster retired from a job of 27 years but twice snuck away from work to witness afternoon starts by Corbin Burnes (in college) and Bryce Miller (High A): https://portlandpilots.com/documents/2016/5/20//vs_SMC_Box1.pdf https://www.milb.com/gameday/aquasox-vs-hops/2022/06/09/675059/final/box

That's over That's over $80 million more than the aggregate $187.7 million* Seattle are estimated to pay for a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. That works out as an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today's pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position. * working off estimates at Baseball Trade Values.

The White Sox are asking, not that the Mariners are offering: "The Seattle Mariners have quietly entered trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for ace Dylan Cease, with the White Sox seeking a package centered around young starter Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. " https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/27/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-stan-kasten-pwhl-hockey/72384625007/ Dylan Cease would provide the shortest team control in the Seattle rotation (just half that of Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert). Seattle has a combined 25 years of team control over its current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo at an estimated aggregate salary* of $186.7 million, or an average annual salary less than $7.5 million per starter. Attrition always looms but in today's pitching market, the Mariners are in an envious position. Blake Snell may be asking for more money than the Mariners are estimated to owe their entire starting rotation over 25 years of team control. * working off estimates at Baseball Trade Values

Austin Voth reportedly is returning home to Seattle on a one-year, $1.25 million Major League deal.

In 2021 Anthony DeSclafani posted 3.0 fWAR with a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts (the same year Mitch Haniger posted a modest 2.5 fWAR with 39 home runs, 110 runs and 100 RBI). That was a long time ago.

It's not an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.

FWIW Seattle took college pitchers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the first rounds of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts. The Mariners have since drafted five high school position players in the first round: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=SEA&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round In the 2021 draft the Mariners selected college pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo in the fourth and sixth rounds. It's an either/or proposition; it's a matter of balancing the current and long-term needs of the franchise.

Seattle is unlikely to trade Luis Castillo for anything less than an equally impactful MLB bat. The Mariners hope to improve on this year's team wRC+ of 107, which ranked sixth in the American League, one slot ahead of the 105 wRC+ posted by the Orioles. This offseason Seattle has shed the 2023 wRC+ of Jarred Kelenic (108), Teoscar Hernandez (105) and Eugenio Suarez (102), plus part-timers Tom Murphy (140) and Mike Ford (123). The Mariners have added Mitch Garver (138) and Luis Urias (83). Seattle still has work to do but the Mariners' raw hitting numbers will always suffer from playing at T-Mobile Park and in the AL West.

two years of Austin Hays at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million?

Luis Castillo is guaranteed $91 million over the next four seasons with a 2028 vesting option for another $25 million. The righthander has a full no-trade clause through 2025 with a $1 million assignment bonus thereafter. Castillo was born the same month as current free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The projected contract for Snell ranges from five years, $122 million at The Athletic to seven years, $200 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Montgomery's projected contract ranges from five years, $127 million at The Athletic to six years, $150 million at MLB Trade Rumors. Early offseason indications are that the projected free contracts have been on the conservative side (although Aaron Nola, who is six months younger than Castillo, came in near projections at seven years, $172 million). Steamer projects 2024 WAR of 3.4 for Castillo, 3.3 for Snell and 3.2 for Montgomery (and 4.2 for Nola): https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=&stats=pit&type=steamer If the Mariners are operating as if they're financially strapped, the M's could offload Castillo's contract (with his consent) for low-cost pre-arb bat. The savings could be flipped in pursuit of a replacement starter because free agent pitchers reportedly find Seattle more attractive than free agent hitters. Big spenders that lose out on Snell, Montgomery and Shota Imanaga could turn to Castillo although Seattle's demands would be high in light of the market for starting pitching.

Jonathan India might rank sixth on the Seattle depth chart at second base behind Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss. As FanGraphs colummunist Dan Szymbvorski noted in his 2024 ZiPS projections for the Mariners: "(Hopefully Jonathan India stays off Seattle's radar; he's not actually projected to be much of an upgrade at second)" https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ In the second half of the 2023 season Seattle ranked sixth in the American League in fWAR from second base with a robust 2.7 (and a league-average wRC+ of 101): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&pos=2b&type=8&month=31 The Kolten Wong experiment in Seattle was a disaster but the Mariners have since traded for Urias, Rojas and Bliss while witnessing the unexpected (and perhaps unsustainable) emergence of Caballero. Like most teams the Mariners have offseason needs but second base is not at the top of the list.

Seattle is highly unlikely to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert for anything less than an equally impactful bat with similar team control. A trade of Jordan Westburg for Bryce Miller would be interesting because they were childhood friends and high school teammates. However, the Mariners are unlikely to leave a hole in their starting rotation without filling a void in the outfield. Seattle might balk at one year of Anthony Santander at a projected $12.7 million but whom would the Orioles want for two years of Austin Riley at a projected 2024 salarly of $6.1 million? Would Emerson Hancock and a prospect outside Seattle's top 10 be enough?

Seattle is unlikely to part with Bryce Miller, who comes with six seasons of team control. The Mariners' needs at second base are overblown. Kolten Wong certainly brought down Seattle's production at second base in 2023. In the first half of the season the Mariners ranked 11th in the league with 0.3 fWAR from second base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lstats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=30 Aided by Wong's DFA on July 31, the Mariners in 73 second-half games ranked sixth in the league with a robust 2.7 fWAR (and a league-average 101 wRC+) from second base (the Twins ranked first): https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pos=2b&type=8&month=31 The second-half rebound was fueled by Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore, who remain on the Seattle roster. The Mariners have since added Luis Urias, who would likely slot at third base if the season started today. Second-base prospect Ryan Bliss is projected to debut in 2024. Like most teams, the Seattle Mariners have offseason needs but second base does not top the list.