MarCakes21

Yes, he had two years of TJ. So the theory is that that's behind him, but he could still have health issues like any pitcher over the course of 5 year.

150 for 4 of the years and less than 50 for a year

So has every pitcher into their 30s. Look at Kershaw.

I think this is the right place, just thought his ceiling would be even higher, yet his floor is irrelevant in 1 year potentially.

I like this option. If you're gonna go in on FA, go in.

It’s relevant. Are these guys more valuable as a pair, or should you trade. I advocate sign both (or Rodon). Need two pitchers, and move Wells/Voth to supplement the pen

That's my point. They don't. They gain one more year of value by improving or repeating levels. Is it wrong to keep Westburg/Norby/Ortiz at AAA?

There's sides to that though: - you can trade guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo/Hall, who are near ready but will need a package. - you can wait a year and these borderline top 100 guys could be top 50 guys and you get more value - you can trade from the MLB choke point which is Urias/Mateo. I prefer the second option on the list given the state of the MLB team.

Why trade? Is Lopez or some other target significantly better than just signing one of those guys above? Look at how you augment your team, you have resources available in the way of cash over the next 3 years before good guys become expensive. Use those before you dip into your tradeable assets.

Yes, but Syndegaard posted 2.2 WAR, after pretty much 2 years off, and then was at 4.3 in 2019 and 4.2 in 2018. There's more upside in Syndegaard than Taillon in my opinion that he gets all his stuff back and turns into a 4WAR pitcher. And I wouldn't advocate the signing of either. I'd much rather both/either of Bassit/Eovaldi.

@Tony-OH I see you have him listed as 2nd division ceiling, but a year ago, as a first round talent, the upside was more like All-Star SS. Do we know more now, or do we just want to be more bearish since we haven't seen the results? I still think there's Swanson/Turner in there which is why I'm hopeful and interested.

Relative, Tallion hasn't been quite as good since his UCL injury in 2019. He did have his best season since 2018 this past year though. I liken him to Syndegaard, there may be upside left, but it's less defined since it hasn't happened recently.

I lean towards both. I think of both as solid no 2s when pitching well. And both have the QO attached, so doesn't that decrease the cost of the second pick? Ie, if you're going to lose one pick, might as well lose two?

So phrase it differently, do you trade Mullins for Lopez straight up? Why wouldn't you target something that could give you more reward than the likely 6 WAR you'll get from Lopez over 2 years. Something Top 50 overall and could give you 15 WAR if you want to move on from him.

I don't want them. But if you're talking about trading a 5 WAR CF with 3 years left for a 3 WAR SP with 2 years left, just sign one of the existing guys. It's bad practice otherwise.

Why not just sign someone of Lopez's caliber to a 2 year deal. The guys who are similar in WAR are plentiful. Walker/Syndegarrd/Wacha/Heaney. Then you don't have to worry about replacing a guy you can't replace via FA.

I'm confused, ranked 15th, who would you put ahead? We're talking about a guy who could be a starting 3B based on his current profile. He's a Vavra or Norby comp with more defense. Normally at 15, we have guys who we hope pan out to be a reliever at best. We still have guys in this area with first team makeup.

I think we should look at Merril Kelly who is a step above those guys, so we'd have to add a piece. But they could use the IF help.

So if we're looking to trade either Urias or Mateo, we're talking about someone of approximately these value wise: Skubal, Singer, Lopez, Steele, Freeland, Gray, Suarez, Detmers

Including Carter Young at this spot.

I voted against my gut because of mcdermott

Got it. So say Gunnar is above average at both, and obviously his hitting is the same, there’s 0.5 WAR difference in the two. the point semi holds, do you want 2.2 Mateo at SS and say 4 WAR Gunnar at 3B or 2.6 WAR urias at 3B and 4.5 WAR Gunnar at SS. Seems generally obvious to me, am I missing something there?

Well I saw this here, but now looking that’s from 2010: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

I agree with that. And to my point, that will keep him at a plus defender and a 30+ SB even with .267 OBP. I just would rather have Gunnar at SS giving you 5-7+ WAR and Urias at 3B giving you 2.5 than Mateo at SS giving you 2WAR and Gunnar at 3B giving you 3WAR. That positional adjustment is sizeable (5 WAR between the two). I think you can extract more team WAR with this config.

I'm advocating Gunnar at SS. But pure speed, no you can't teach. You can teach a fast guy to steal a base, but you can't teach Jesus Aguilar to be Jorge Mateo.