MarCakes21

Of course, hes got some Tatis (not the hitting, and likely other comps) in him, flair for wild hard plays. But that's the exact reason I think the Os should trade Mateo over Urias, as I imagine there are teams that value the flair and the guy to watch for marketing purposes too.

Right, and there's 16mil of excess value (approx) in both Mateo and Urias. So then you trade Mateo for a 2-3 WAR SP or a single prospect in the top 100

I understand that, but their overall WAR delta is minimal, and you cant teach speed is my point. That speed will play at 30+ SB and GG caliber defense even with a .267 OBP. He proved it.

I know the FO won't say it, but I want to hear where they think Gunnar will play. If he's above average for at least the next 5 years at SS, he carries so much value there. The difference in value between Mateo and Urias from the board seems to be the extra year. However, I still think that in a single year environment, teams would value Mateo higher due to things they can't produce like defense and speed. Yes, maybe hes a below average hitter, but the speed clearly still played.

Why do we think Urias carries more value? I think Mateo had more value externally because people know what they get from defense and speed. i think the optimal play is keep urias, Gunnar to SS which optimizes his value, westburg to 2B for the bat and utilize Ortiz as the Util or fill in as an injury. I think he still has some to prove at AAA.

All over the place defensively. Negative last year in dWAR, but has been 8.1 and 20.5 positive in dWAR in past years. Projected for positive 2.2 dWAR and -5.2 oWAR by fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-alfaro/12180/stats?position=C

Say there was no Mateo or Ortiz, who plays SS at the ML level because of the glove? Westburg or Gunnar? Just wondering if there's a hit first infield option that the team has.

Who reaches first base first.

I kinda answered my own question, but for those curious, the site here has future values in dollars: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&pageitems=200&pg=0&type=100&filter=&pos=&team= If you remove Grod, Gunnar, and Holliday, it takes away $168mil in value, which moves our total to $195 which would rank us as 16th farm system based on fangraph. That's impressive in the quality of the depth.

That's what I'm curious and agree we're top heavy, but I feel like we're also balance. Someone posted this elsewhere: Henderson: 65Rodriguez: 60Hall: 55Holliday: 55Mayo: 50Ortiz: 50Cowser: 50Westburg: 45Kjerstad: 45Norby: 40+Basallo: N/A And maybe you even have some guy higher than that, but if you have Hall, Mayo, Ortiz, Cowser, Westburg all 50+ and Kjerstad at 45, still seems like it'd be a top org based on 5 guys on the Top 100 border.

Given that 4-9 are fairly exchangeable, and people have our 4 and 6 guys in Top 100, if you removed Gunnar/GRod/Holliday, where would this farm rank? Is it still at top 5-10 system in baseball?

Is there a ML comp?

We will see, but I think the title says why Tony has him at 6 behind Hall and Mayo. 2B/inf is not SS

It's a waste of assets. You have to then sign what you trade from. Ie, trade Mullins/Santander, then you have to sign Nimmo and Abreu. Why not just shell out the money for arms in the first place.

Sounds like a great answer to what you would do if you could increase payroll by $50 mil

I actually think his is the right plan. I could see a DH, but all of your in house options for improvement or in the minors are with the bat. Get some stabilization but very little is needed on the offensive side if you have limited overall dollars. Let me say it this way, you have $50 mil per year over the next 5 years to spend this year. How are you spending it?

More plate appearances, more SB, better BA, and the playoff! Cut and dry.

Point is I imagine teams track every pitch, high stress, low stress, fastballs, breaking balls, etc, to try to categorize the impact on the pitchers total stress and limits.

I imagine that the orgs actually have a better way to evaluate total fatigue. And it's probably by pitches. And also counts bullpens, side sessions, and warmups. But all just a guess.

Hence the (pick two) words I wrote I also think the bullpen would improve but that’s not the exercise

For reference, with the same tool Abreu is projected for 2.6 WAR. Not much of an upgrade over Mountcastle/Santander, but way more expensive.

A TOR gives you 40-50, but no way if Hays/Santander/Mountcastle are all worth about 2 WAR, you’re getting a 4 WAR player in FA unless it’s one of the big SS. Abreu won’t bring that back. So focus on where you can gain. Two SP can quickly grab you 7-10 wins over Wells/Voth/Watkins projections of replacement level approximately. And all of those run differentials.

Yes definitely. Look at what you’d replace and from where. Say you replace Wells/Voth/Watkins (pick two) for deGrom/Verlander/Rodon (pick two). That’s an easy gain of 10 wins. Assume no improvement from anyone else and you’re at mid-90s wins. That puts you in competition for the AL east and a WS. Which is why I’m emphasizing top tier SP, even Rodon/Eovaldi/Bassit gets you 7 wins over our guys. Much more than trading Abreu for Mountcastle

I do, but we have no OF depth unless we sign someone. Why not trade where you're strong from like Westburg/Ortiz to see if you can catch lightening on Rogers

Yea, I just think the trade from value then sign replacement value is a hard bait and switch to follow. Have to have a lot of cards fall right. You either plan on one (trade from surplus) or the other (sign assets).