MarCakes21

Agree. Just like the trade deadline deal, if you can get Snell or similar for Santander +, then you do it.

Probably a better idea than signing Adley unfortunately. If I could buy out 2-3 years of Adley's FA I'd do that first, but I doubt he would unless he's certain he wants to be in Baltimore.

That's scary exciting.

Yes, at 3B/SS/2B. 860 OPS at 1B could be 750 at the big league level, which gets you Mountcastle. With plus defense across other IF positions, that's positive WAR.

Yea, that's only a problem for the cost to lock them up at the given age once they hit FA. Henderson you'd be locking up in his prime, Adley you'd be locking up on a potential downhill. For value though, I'd imagine you're more likely to get peak Adley value than Henderson.

Assuming health, I've got, likely in some particular order: Adley, Mullins, Henderson, GRod, Bautista After that, the questions on how long they're kept and performance maintenance are: Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, Kremer, Bradish Then guys who aren't on the active roster, but have potential to be here soon: Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz

I concur. I would temper expectations, for 8 WAR, but even in a rookie year where he could produce 5.4 WAR in 2/3 of the total games, tough not to be excited. I think the bigger part, which is kind of stated above, is there's so much excess value in the catcher. 8 WAR means for the next couple years, we're getting somewhere around 50mil in excess value. I just don't think that's something Henderson could produce at SS unless he becomes a Trout like hitter.

Dang no Grod.

I'm saying average of $60mil increase per year, not year over year. So you can add two players at 3 years/$30mil or 3 players for 3 years/$20mil or some variation of that. Basically, I'm saying I think our payroll could be at ~$110 mil next year, and then after that, allow for year over year arb increases and minor addition/subtractions that put it ~140-150mil in 2025.

Looks like he put a little of the weight back on that many thought he lost during the early part of the season.

Say you have to pick one, given resources. You have $60 mil per year to spend annually for the next 3 years. Which way do you go to improve? I say this because I believe while we will spend, we won't see us spending something like $100-150 mil more annually, knowing we have expenses coming through Arb in the next 2-3 years (Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays/Santander) and then guys we might want to lock up long term in a similar timeframe (Rutschman/Henderson).

Jean Segura, Kolton Wong, and Adam Frazier don't instill significantly more confidence than Westburg/Ortiz would with Urias in play as well (assuming Henderson is at 3B or SS). Focus on SP via FA, which should keep the RP strong if you transfer Wells/Voth back to the pen. See if you can upgrade 1B/DH potentially via a trade, and if that doesn't stick, you've got what you've got.

As for the overall topic, I'd still rather spend big money on the 3 year deals before the the rest of the team gets expensive. I'd start with a 3 year for whatever it takes to win for Rodon, then add a 3 year for a more experience vet type innings eater and #2 like Bassitt or Eovaldi. Need two top of the rotation types to take the burden off of GRod, Bradish, Kremer and then you can move Wells/Voth to the pen and have Hall gain more experience as a SP for one last shot down in AAA.

Agree. We also are trying to come up with "fair" trade proposals with someone who has no standing in the Marlins org anyways. He's saying what he wants/needs, but he has no insight that the Marlins won't value a live arm that is big league ready. He just thinks they have alternatives. Back to the general proposal, if we're talking a proposal that includes no ML prospects, he's said what he'd generally accept. My opinion is to start around Cowser+Westburg, and then have the third piece be either Hall or Mayo. Let them pick. After that, any fourth would be a throw in type. That's two top 100 prospects come this offseason, plus two borderline top 100s.

In reality, start with something like Cowser+Hall, and look at add ons from there. Maybe Mayo+Kjerstad would be an option, but I wouldn't say more than that.

Let's be realistic. Here's what the Dodgers got for 2 years of Turner and one year of Scherzer. C Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers' No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline); RHP Josiah Gray (No. 2); RHP Gerardo Carrillo (No. 17); OF Donovan Casey (unranked) No way you'd get more than top 2 prospects, even for Alcantra. Talking about a throw in of Mullins and Mayo seems way over the top Also, I understand the control and financial cost is different, but you also have to understand that the quality and pedigree of players is also different.

Of course, never said he wasn't. Just thinking out loud on how to manage his innings at the big league level if you have a cap of say ~150.

There's plenty of other ways you can manage that. Like piggybacking with Akin/Wells on his starts for the first 10 or so. We should have both guys on our big league roster next season anyways. You can also do like the M's did with Kirby and send him down for a month around the All Star break, have him stay sharp in some 2 inning stints, but not go 5+.

When do we have to decide on Lyles? It would be nice to see if we can make some inroads on some FA SP (through Agents? Is that legal?) before we have to decide on his option.

I'd echo this, and while other Orgs have scouts as well to represent how good another teams system is, overall I think it does help to have a highly rated Org. Ie, you can trade your number 5 guy rather than your number 2 guy for an established MLer, because your Org is highly ranked.

Just one add on IP. Just looked, Kirby only pitched 67 innings last season, over 15 starts. Seems likely limited, he missed a month due to a shoulder injury in 2021? I'd see this as a similar use case as GRod. He's at 152 IP this year.

He pitched 103 last year. So an ideal season would have him at 125-140 this year. Understand he didn't get there, but wouldn't you like to try to get 150 out of him next year so he's still there for stretch run/postseason assuming that's needed? How do you make that feasible?

I'll look at team impact. Adley was big for the boost he provided and when he provided it. But this offense would be nothing without Santander. I think that MVP like value is harder to put a true value on, but he kept us afloat in the playoff race for as long as he could.

Seeing what they've been doing, they've been having him catch the day game and DH the night game. Wonder if they just have him sit the night game.

I think it's two. One is a must, ie Lyles type. But the second needs to run in a similar upside TOR fashion, like Rodon or even Clevinger, who I'm farther down on. Then you can roll with Kremer/Bradish/GRod with Hall in the minors as first man up, and Wells back to the pen as long man. After that you'd have decisions with Voth and Watkins.