MarCakes21

He got this way second half of the season last year, almost seeming to chase 30/30. I think he could still be tweaked to get it right, not that he's been bad, but he can be better.

I'm leaning this way as well. I think this year you trade Santander/Mancini for value and then you have another year to decide what Mullins is and what his future with this team is. If you think you can resign him as a 4WAR player, then go for it. If you think he has more future value to this team in a trade piece, then go for it.

Agree. Look at the first month this season for Torkelson/Witt/Rodriguez. Then look at months 2-3.

So what pitchers are you targeting? I think some of the ones that signed this offseason and potentially underperforming could be had for Mancini maybe straight up in a position of need? (Rodriguez, Gray, Stroman, Gaussman, Berrios)

Yes, but that good hitter and teammate portion does play a role. If you could lock him up at years end for 3/$30, then count me in.

I could see this going either way though. I actually think Mancini has more value to a playoff contender, and even more if his option is picked up as part of a trade

We continue to discuss these guys as trade options since they're slightly older and might free up space for Stowers or others to come up through the system. I wanted to take a side by side to discuss who has the better current trade value as well as future team value: Age (Santander listed first/Mancini listed second): 27.239 / 30.89 Contract: (2022/2023/2024 Santander: 3.15mil /Arb3/Arb4 Mancini: 7.5mil /10mil/ UFA Stats: (OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+) Santander: .337/.397/.735/113+ Mancini: .374/.448/.822/138+ WAR: (oWAR/dWAR) Santander: 0.9/-0.4 Mancini: 1.5/-0.4 So obviously Mancini is having the better season and likely even has the better long term numbers. As a DH he probably needs a new contract to extend out through his age 34 season. What is the right value if he's extended? Could Santander replicate those numbers? Who is more tradeable and will fetch more given current contracts and production?

Yes, that's my point. So its unsurprising that age 26-30 had the most rWAR because they had greater than 50% of the PAs. To do something statistically significant you'd have to do rWAR/PA by age bracket as the easiest method.

How does this rank for overall percentage of players? I imagine that the league is probably only 30% over 30. Now many of those 24-26 AAAA guys will never end up as real big leaguers but they make up a strong part of the league.

Guess me hearing Palmer's comments was right too. I'm sure Palmer knew.

Yup if you have it DVRd or taped, go to like 910 when they talk about the upcoming schedule and Bradish pitching tomorrow.

I think Palmer just blew it during the game. Something along the lines of “well if you want to see the start of something special show up tomorrow….errr uhhh Kyle Bradish is good”

I'm starting to lean the other way. I think it gives great character and makes it more neutral, but I was even worried when Mountcastle hit that. You shouldn't. need a 423ft, 112mph exit velo to clear. I personally think in between what they've got now and the old wall would have been better.

Awesome, where's this data from? Is it comparable to 2021? (Happy to look myself if I knew where to look).

Agree, seems like a different approach. Down and in, he hits. Middle up, he hits. Hard in he struggles. Seems like he's standing closer to the plate, but no evidence to back that up. Also, seems like he's K'ing more, wondering if the new hitting coach approach has requested something different of him - a 30-30 guy.

@Tony-OH how much of this changes start to start? Like ball, or air temperature, or humidity or just plain stuff? Or is it pretty consistent across the season to go back and reference averages from last season compared to a single game this year? I noticed you did the same with Lyles.

Zimmerman makes the team and is getting the home OD start.

I agree with SG on this premise in general. If you're adding a 2 WAR guys (aka spending $15 mil) you might as well hope your prospects pan our and play to 2 WAR by 2023. If you're adding someone though, you need to be looking at overpaying for the 4-6 WAR guys (aka 30mil). Pitchers I feel differently about. I'll take the 2 WAR pitchers all day long as you need serious depth and a stable that you don't even close to have with just Means and GRod.

Did you break him down by park? Camden was a top offensive park in the league last year. And either way, he's still a above average defensively.

I'm okay with it. Not my money, but would also give him an opt out after 3-4. Might even front load. The rumors around him though are that he wants to go to a contender, so you'd have to overpay.

I'll say it again, if we were in on Correa, why not be in on Story. Camden should play above league average on offense, and he should be solid on defense for 5 more at SS, and can always move off when others are ready.

If you look at age curves and peak performance, you really want the guy to debut at age 24 and maximize their peak years under contract. There's always the chance guys like Witt/Harper/Soto/Machado are great talents when they debut, but there's also the possibility of them middling away for 3 years while they still learn the game. That's the much more likely scenario.

Its intriguing because it's potentially fair value if he's a 5WAR player. However, I'd want him around through the turn, for years 6-8 even if his WAR declines some. Question is though, contrary to your thought, there's actually more value on a team in the 0-2WAR players in FA. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/

Its a better deal if it's front loaded, as to not hamstring you at the tail end when $/WAR goes up (likely). However, the 10 year part of it is bothersome.

Perfect, they can outbid themselves like they did on Crush.