MarCakes21

Agree, one of the two would be next man up. Or you go with a 6 man to limit innings on a few of these guys. But that'd be a hearty 6 man to go with that I'd feel better about. But really you're looking for equivalents in a trade which is why you developed position talent. Who can give you 20 wins over the next 6 years in exchange for one of your duplicative pieces (Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz) knowing you have others ready to step in/up (Holliday/Beavers/Norby/Kjerstad). The more deseriable approach for the Os would be to trade current ML players, like Mateo/Urias, for ECab/Luzardo, but that doesn't seem as straight up, and you'd have to add one of the other pieces too.

Interesting thought process, but pretty much we'd be trading 3 guys were developing for 2 they finished developing. We need cost controlled pitching just as much as we need premium power, and the pitching is what you can ride through the playoffs.

The Os guys serve the beers?!?!?

I posted that same info earlier. I also believe that you need to put more stock in the ML WAR projections as they've "proven it", whereas the minors guys have so much more variability. Hence why Adley's increased. I actually think that trade above is decently fair. 2 top 100 guys, and a fringe guy for 2 ML, mid rotation guys. Now I don't know if either team pulls the trigger, or we'd have to add some more mid-level guys as well, or a Wells option who provides minimal value but support.

Why not both? Could you get ECab and Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo/Westburg? And do you do it?

Theyre interested in OF and corner IF players, mainly at the controllable ML level or near ready. You could try to send them Mayo or Cowser as a CF as a centerpiece, and add on Westburg/Ortiz. For reference, from BTV future WAR: Westburg: 15.8 Cowser: 25.0 Ortiz: 13.4 Mayo: 12.2 Lopez: 38.7 Rogers: 36.5 Luzardo: 28 Cabrera: 14.8 If you take those as gospel, I'd be more interested In Luzardo and Cabrera than Rogers or Lopez, and likely for a Westburg/Cowser combo based on @Tony-OH reports.

@Frobby maybe not the right venue for this, as it's more FA valuation, but in getting to a 90 win team, there's a thought process that 1 WAR = $8mil (or whatever the going rate is). However, has anyone graded this on a curve? Like yes, it'd be great if you had 26 2WAR players on your team but in reality, you'll have 10 guys in the 0-1 WAR bucket, 10 in the 1-3, and then need 6 guys in the 3+ (with 5-8 WAR needed). Is WAR in these higher ends actually valued differently?

They are worth about 5/6 in future WAR. Same with Santander. Wish we could get both, but that may be a bridge too far

I like Bryce Miller more as well due to the strikeout upside and better K/BB. Would like to see their BTV ranks

Not sure this deserves its own thread but there’s an article out that Santander is option 1a for the Ms still looking for an OF and they’re flush with SP. https://www.baseballrumors.me/2022/12/mlb-rumors-mariners-linked-to-orioles.html?fbclid=IwAR2sf23ejN28x4lB5P2fQcAS1IGmQRZiu2CvmhyC2WJRlwGksz-t45tOzBg&m=1&mibextid=Zxz2cZ anyone want to begin guessing what a return might look like from the Ms? Guessing it’s not their ML ready SPs.

They definitely say no way to that deal. Cowser and Westburg are the selling points. Top 100 guys. Agree no way on Bradish. I think the key to the deal would be sliding in a replacement for him.

If you're curious what BTV thinks: Burnes: 78.3 vs. Bradish (13), Westburg (15), Cowser (25), and Povich (2). So per them, we come out ahead, but a lot of future projection still unknown. Pretty much assumes he's worth 6WAR per season too.

I was going to agree, but for me it was the known top end. Bradish could easily regress as much as I want him to be our no 2 or 3.

I want the window to discuss one though, but agree 2 years of Burnes at the top is probably worth 2 Top 10 guys Tony was low on.

This. He was worth ~70 mil the past two years. He will get more expensive but unless youre getting back the equivalent of around 5WAR per year, you hold.

I think its a fair comparison, its the only real true backup thats worth more than league min. Casali has a WRC+ over his career of 92 and is projected by Fangraphs for 81 this year. Looks like hes gained 20dWAR over 9 years and 4.8WAR total. He's also a career backup never having over 84 games. McCann has a WRC+ over his career of 83 and is projected by Fangraphs for 86 this year. Looks like hes gained 24.3dWar overe 9 years and 4.5WAR total. So pretty equivalent players. I'll take the dWAR from McCann knowing he's "only" my backup. Anyone know more on how to breakdown the quality of defensive metrics?

Im not sure we could find the same for less. And even at league min, itd be more unpredictable.....or Beneboom.

Tell me why to be that upset? Other than a ML spot and taking ABs from RM. Hed be a good platoon, and not sure on character but hes a vet.

Adding this list of guys. Are there any here that are FA or trade options that would be better? Because we all know that better options that McCann would have cost more on the FA market

Agree. It’s more time with Gunnar and Adley as well as Grod over Voth/Wells innings that will be the improvements and if we can get incremental gains from bounce backs of Frazier/Gibson/McCann, which I think is possible. But injuries are always the question mark.

Bumping this, with McCann now in. Look at the alternatives and cost. I think we'll be okay.

I tend to think systems like the Yanks and Dodgers are always overrated because of the systems. However, on pure stuff, May is elite. It'll be if he's on the field and can hone it. Kinda like Joba Chamberlain a few years back. If they want Mullins and Mateo, I'm requiring May be the centerpiece coming back with 2-3 from the farm. All this is hypothetical though. We haven't even heard the Dodgers are interested in either guy, but that they're looking for a CF, and that teams are interested in Mateo.

Are one of these guys ARod or "just" Correa/Turner/Lindor types? If so, you make the push early for lockup through age 35, if not, then let them walk. Similar with GRod and Adley, but more inherent risk. Adley I think is the most important because of the catcher market, and if he's a 8 WAR guy like Posey or Pudge or Piazza (don't know their WAR), then he's instantly a top 3 MLB player you have to lock. But GRod likely will price himself out unless he wants to be team friendly.

Wouldn't it be awesome if Adley/Grayson competed with Molina/Wainwright for starts as a battery?

This is the deal you make, but if there's one for two of their top 3 MiL SPs, you do that too. I doubt either are on the table.