MarCakes21

I'm not on board with current value. My opinion, if we (and others) value him at 2.5 WAR for the next 3 years, he's got ~$50+ mil in surplus value. We should be looking for multiple pitching prospects in return who are near ready. Like the potential LAD deal, with Miller or Stone headlining, and maybe even May as an alternative. BTV does not value him close to this obviously, but if we're getting back Kepler for a year, I see little there.

I agree with the Westburg thought, seems like a guy without a home. I also think Mateo as the ML piece, and slide Gunnar to SS. I'm likely more in the minority there, but seems like you have a good backup option in Ortiz if Gunnar can't play defense there, and Norby waiting for when Frazier has an OPS south of 600.

Wasnt much in the article of value. He might have read this thread because he mentioned Woodruff/Burnes/Bieber.

Thats my premise too. Not sure we devalue guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Cowser by keeping them down assuming they still hit. And flip at the deadline might make them all "closer" to ML ready

I like many of those guys as options. I don’t think Singer is available quite yet, and Garcia, Javier and May are all pieces on very good teams. I could see Luzardo, Kopech and Soroka being options to inquire on. Could we use two of our top 10 to get them or would we need more? Per BTV, Luzardo is worth 27 war, kopech 15 war and Soroka 1.3, though I’m sure he won’t be sold like that.

Not a SP or big game, but what about Matt Beaty as our backup 1B/OF option. Potential there and if we offer him a 40 man may take it

If we're talking about trading, trade one for Tanner Houck and convert him back to a SP, and see what you can get.

Theyve got to offload guys then for pitching. We just added Frazier who we know is going to get 400+ ABs. So how do you package what's available for a TOR.

This is a fair question. Do we boost the value of guys like Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz by leaving them all down this year? I assume they can all hurt their stock, but it really puts them beating down the door and potential top 25 vs. knocking and top 100. So does a year from now get us more value in a trade?

I think if it was "only" 5/$115 of a known commodity, than yes. Or my orange colored glasses say yes. Also, I'm not saying TOR, I'm saying future TOR potential, ie trade Cowser for an equivalent top 100 prospect with an arm.

Thanks @Frobby. The age tells me what I think many knew, that pitching develops with age, but throwing might peak around 25-27 like position players. The scarcity function tells me you have two options: 1. Overpay for 2-4 wins, and that a pitching win is worth more than a positional win 2. Don't pay for pitching wins, and try to gain them with supplemental offense and defense.

Not disagreeing, but he's also been right before.

I don't think we will either. But that's what Roch said, and unfortunately he's the only one with any info. Agree on the years, we should be looking out towards 2024 pieces, ie swap your TOR prospect for a Cowser but those swaps are rare. I think Cowser could/would be a top prospect in many orgs as a Top 100 guy. Finally, as for Bieber, I think they're looking to move on and next man up, in a similar trade a year or two before FA: https://calltothepen.com/2022/10/26/bieber-trade-might-be-in-the-cards-for-guardians/ It's been done with Kluber, Clevinger and Carassco. I don't think this would be an amazing deal for us, but it's an option.

Probably worse, Lodolo has proven it.

I don't think there's enough there with Perez. I think we have enough in the way of Bradish/Kremer for mid-rotation but need to true TOR.

Agree, I think Lodolo and Singer teams still think they could compete before they are FAs. So that goes more to the wow offer. I also imagine Lodolo's second half prices him way out of contention unless there's a top 3. He's nearing (not there) Alcantra territory because of time to FA.

I know the merits of this have been discussed many times over, but there was a snippet in Roch's latest piece, and generally we've found Roch to be a good source: Is a trade for a starting pitcher more likely than a free agent signing? That type of deal seems like the only way to get a true No. 1 starter. The Orioles would need to be willing to surrender some prospects or subtract from their projected 26-man roster. The former feels like a more likely scenario. So three questions: - Who are the available number 1s: Woodruff, Burnes, Bieber, Alcantra (unlikely), Gallen, Kelly - am I missing any? - Can we trade for one of these guys without moving our top 3, ie a class headlines by 3 of: Westburg, Hall, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Basallo, Beavers - Can we semi-affordably resign any of these guys before FA?

This is important, but for what? Isn't one win one win? Or does a 1 year 2B that does run prevention help get more future SPs? I'm struggling with the analytics of this one.

And he's projected to get on base .001 more than the guy hes likely moving to the bench.

Ah that's a rough read. Here's the crux of my (and many) argument: Ramón Urías 29 .255 .325 .423 381 50 97 20 1 14 56 34 101 1 106 2.2 Jordan Westburg 24 .233 .310 .392 510 72 119 27 3 16 77 48 155 7 93 1.8 Adam Frazier 31 .267 .326 .363 529 68 141 25 4 6 42 41 70 8 91 1.8 Jorge Mateo 28 .234 .279 .391 448 58 105 22 6 12 49 23 132 26 83 1.7 Joey Ortiz 24 .239 .294 .363 482 63 115 21 3 11 60 34 103 4 81 1.4 Connor Norby 23 .244 .309 .410 451 64 110 18 3 17 70 38 126 8 97 1.2 Terrin Vavra 26 .245 .339 .358 265 38 65 14 2 4 37 33 64 4 94 1.0 So those top three other guys you're paying a combined less than 3 mil. But you've now allocated 8 mil to the 3rd best option. And that doesn't even include what you could get from Ortiz/Norby/Vavra. So....the benefit where?

I made my vote before Frazier was signed. I guess I had to wait for 12/15 to be complete.

Ah and for once, you hope Mike Elias's words are a legitimate lie.

I’d rather not spend it at all. Or put it in the Latin market or player development. It didn’t get you much. and you put stock in guys who have repeated their performance (Urias) or have a unique calling in their defense and speed that doesn’t disappear overnight (Mateo). I’m not putting my stock in the rotation.

You think he’s better than urias or Mateo?

For $8mil you’re arguing my point. He’s marginal gains over things you already have. So why spend any money. Does he make the orioles marketably better in 2023?