StottyByNature

I don't think we should be too quick to shovel dirt on Austin Hays. Cowser is red hot right now and Hyde is correctly putting him in the lineup. I think the biggest thing is he has gained the confidence he can hit at this level after a really rough try last year. Still, and I know this is not an earth-shattering statement, Cowser will not end the year with anything close to his current 1.378 OPS and Hays will not end the year with anything close to his current .233 OPS. Austin will have to be patient but his opportunities will come. He was an All-Star last year for a reason.

It matters to me that the team I root for has good guys on it. If their faith helps them toward that end that's great but I also don't think you have to be religious to choose to do the right thing. I do always cringe when athletes start an interview with thanking God/Jesus, etc. At some point it rings a little hollow - more like a reflex than it carrying real meaning.

My recollection was that he hurt his arm on a pitch when his landing foot slipped. Seemed like more of a freak injury than wear and tear. But who knows.

Baseball is a game of funny outcomes. You can tap a ball in front of the plate and get a hit, or hit a screaming liner for an out. In order for those outcomes to balance out it would take a large sample size. It's also why hard-hit percentage is a better measure for performance, and why BABIP is a nice measure of a lucky or unlucky season.

Agreed, Holliday is the easiest move. I think O'Hearn is the next to go. Outside of a really nice start with us last year he just doesn't have the history to be handed regular at-bats. If Kjerstad is mashing he deserves to take O'Hearn's spot. I'd be surprised if we move on from Urias or Mateo this year. They are valuable in back-up roles. If Mayo comes up he needs to be starting.

Pretty cool use of the Peabody library - iconic Baltimore.

RIP Mr. Angelos. Funny how someone you’ve never met feels like a part of your life. I respect and appreciate his commitment to the city of Baltimore.

Again a reasonable point. I suppose I look at all of the gnashing of teeth over Odor/Frazier with a broader lens. Much of it was at the behest of Henderson, Westburg, and Ortiz. Yes, I was itching to see the kids play, too. Henderson is the reigning ROY. Westburg is now in a great spot to take over a full-time role after some adjustment time. Ortiz was traded. What did we lose in that waiting? Should we have gone for it in 2022 instead of trading Mancini and Lopez? In retrospect I think he clearly made the right choice. Was 2023 not a resounding success? Rodriguez was certainly an unfortunate confluence of events. Now, if a guy like Stowers ultimately gets DFA'd then I will agree that the logjam was not addressed properly. Until then, depth is never a bad thing. I suppose I look at Elias' job (and ultimate success) differently. In baseball, I believe you need to get to the playoffs (preferable as a high seed) and then it's a bit of a crapshoot from there. Hitters go hot and cold, though having an ace and a couple of lights-out bullpen options really boosts your chances. Elias addressed the need for an ace with a bullet. I have my doubts about the bullpen and wish he had done more/hope he will do more there. One thing not mentioned here is we have no idea how much money Elias has been given to spend. While we may have "punted" on an offseason, do we really believe that he was told to spend money and just chose not to? He has a calculated, measured approach and I think that is more likely to lead to sustained success even if it means asking for some patience.

Fair point, but there is a wide gap between questioning a decision and acting like some grave injustice has been inflicted upon us by a nefarious overlord. Most of this thread has been the latter. Elias clearly has a vision for this team and so far it has worked extremely well. Anyone acting like this was some easy, obvious decision is plainly wrong. I considered (and agree with) the second point and believe he will be brought up with enough time to make that acclimation by the postseason.

I think Mike Elias should have earned our trust by now. I have no problem with the decision. It’s not like they have slow played Holliday in the minors, he’s still awfully young for AAA. If he’s as good as we think then an extra year is a perfectly reasonable play. Cowser is going to play a lot so it fits with the notion of not breaking in too many guys at once as well. Holliday is more important to us at the end of the season than at the start anyway. If he’s the difference between making the playoffs or not then something has gone horribly wrong this year.

If the value is there, sure go for it. If it's because we feel like we need to move him then the likelihood of getting appropriate value diminishes.

I think the Opening Day roster decision is overrated. We have excellent depth and it only takes one injury for the "surplus" to become a necessity. You don't take Stowers based on a hot spring (too many examples like this to mention) and you don't trade him just to trade him.

I think we just need to embrace the power of "and" here. The 2023 Orioles won 101 games because of tanking AND the excellent work the front office did with those advantages gained from tanking. Put another way, tanking only provides opportunity, it does not guarantee success (see: Pirates, Pittsburgh). I think some of you are missing the point on the "everyone had a shot at Gunnar" notion. Sure, that's true, but picking at the top of the second round still helped us. What if other teams were considering him for the second round (not unreasonable if there were signability concerns) and we simply had the earlier selection? Picking earlier in any round is always preferable to later. There is nothing wrong with conceding that tanking provided the opportunity but the front office excelled at capitalizing on those opportunities. If another front office had the exact same resources the Orioles have had over the last 5 years it is unlikely they would reproduce the same results. Still, the resources were there for a reason.

Players don't tank, organizations tank. That the record didn't drop has nothing to do with the fact that the organization traded off good players for players that would help in the future. When teams "sell" they are folding in the season for better future odds, aka tanking. The Lopez trade was definitely tanking as was holding off on starting Adley's service time. They were trying to cluster their prospects for a window of competitiveness even though he was clearly ready earlier.

Really hope they move on from Webb. He had a nice start with us but I think he's just filler at this point with little upside.

We got a one-year ace at a one-year price. It was excellent work by Elias but no one should expect anything further. I can't wait to watch him pitch.

Never said he won't get that type of deal, just that I don't think the O's should give him that deal. And I'm also not just going to presume it's going to start raining money. Just because it's (theoretically) there doesn't mean we should spend with impunity. Look at the Mets last year. Give Elias whatever his higher payroll ceiling is and let him keep doing his excellent work.

Absolutely not. He's 29 and his numbers declined slightly last year. Love this move for a year but there is no need to lock into something like that now. This was a perfect situation to use a prospect surplus and grab a legitimate ace to bolster the team for a year. Our core will still be coming from the minors.

Man, I love this trade. I'll be rooting for Ortiz and Hall. But we traded from the surplus of infielders, Hall is far from a sure thing, and we kept all of our big time prospects. A one-two punch of Bradish and Burnes is awesome. The comp pick is a wash since we'll get one when Burnes leaves anyway.

It will be interesting to see. I could see another team offering him 3/45 and him taking that financial security over the QO. This assumes his 2024 is on par with his last couple of years.

I actually think Santander is a prime QO candidate. You either get a comp pick for him or you slightly overpay for a year of his prime. Keeps payroll flexibility while maintaining an important player on the team, or get some value if he walks. I don't think he'd garner much in the trade market so I'm happy to hang on to him.

Well said, I agree with all of this. Any trade is a risk/reward, but you know what else is? Counting on a prospect to become a good big leaguer. Dylan Cease has a demonstrated track record and is a rare case where he has the stuff to come with an elite upside. High floor and also high ceiling is unusual. No one knows if he is definitely going to be the missing piece and the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. But we can say with certainty that the O's did not have the starting pitching depth last year to make a confident run in the postseason. Cease would give us stability for the regular season and high-end potential in the postseason. While we won 101 games last year we outplayed our run differential. Elias is smart not to break in too many rookies at once so trading from this wave makes perfect sense. He has three late-first rounders this year to replenish some of that talent.

For all of our talk of a Cowser/Ortiz package you have to wonder if the holdup isn't a third piece the Sox are asking for. I would imagine they want an arm back and what we have there is questionable. I would guess we value Hall at much higher than others see him, for example.

I suppose reasonable minds can disagree but I absolutely think Cease is 2x more valuable than Glasnow. You get him for two seasons and he has been significantly more healthy than Glasnow. Glasnow has only gone over 100 innings once. Cease is also relatively cheaper.

As always I look at these reports through the lens of who gains an advantage by it coming out. If it's an NL executive then this person's team is not trying to get Cease but is trying to drive up the price for a competitor. Or, and more than likely, it's tied back to the Sox who are still not happy with the offers for him. I still believe getting Cease is the logical and obvious move for the O's, much in the same vein as Kimbrel. It seems like the Sox are stuck between what they perceive as his value and what everyone else does. They were dumb not to trade him at the deadline last year because teams would have gotten three postseasons out of him and now that's down to two. Unfortunately, though, if they are going to continue to be unreasonable this may not happen. I would not be surprised if they continue to be stubborn and if they don't get what they want they push this trade to the deadline this year. Once someone puts their foot in the ground it can be difficult for them to come off it.