Can_of_corn

If you whoosh on an analogy a fourth grader would have recognized don't blame the messenger.

Oh, so maybe it isn't easy to devise a viable draft strategy for a ML team? Who'd have thunk it? For the record I knew a guy in the Army that ran a marathon out of the blue. He did end up with bleeding nipples but he did it.

I've never run a marathon but it seems easy. All you have to do is run right? Simple.

And real choices have to be made for it to happen, it isn't "easy". Sometimes it doesn't work out. Look at the O's 2008 draft.

Sure 15% of the total max cap is easy to work around.

You might. Maybe Willems ends up being a ML regular, him + Cowser would probably outproduce Lawler. I would have preferred Lawler as well but 1.8M (+) in additional cost is a thing that can't be waved away as inconsequential.

And there is a cost to doing that. You are getting lesser prospects at some of the draft positions. It's not free.

OK, then find me the ~1.3M in 2021 that lets you take Lawler instead of Cowser. Oh, so you are going to hindsight away Willems, that gets you 800K ish. So you only need to find another 500K. BTW, not taking Willems is a cost.

So tell me how you would free up ~1.3 or so million out of that draft class without the benefit of hindsight?

I don't see why it's a problem. How is it a "problem" that Anthony Rendon is getting paid way too much money for what he contributes to the team? It sucks for the Angels but it's not an issue for the league as a whole. How much did Jordan Poole make last year to be the worst player in the league ($27,455,357)?

Right, you just need to know what guys aren't going to make it so you can draft seniors instead. It's easy. I know how the draft works, but the idea that you can just draft and sign anyone you want and make the money work just isn't accurate. There is a cost to burning picks for savings. The math won't always work. Assuming Lawlar would have signed for the same amount if picked fifth instead of sixth (which might not have been the case) you would need to get together 1.8M in additional funds. Assuming they didn't go over, the 5% overage will get them 591K closer. You still need to cut 1.2M out of your draft class. I guess you would just say, hey pick a senior instead of Rhodes in the second round, boom save 800K! This is easy!

It's easy. All you have to do is not pay the guys that you now know won't make it and that leaves you plenty for everyone else.

I'm not sold that the answers the other owners have found are better. What seems to be happening in a lot of cases is that the top 5% get a much larger share of the pie than we see in MLB. The NFL doesn't even have guaranteed contracts. I also don't think the competitive balance in MLB is worse than you see in other sports. I'm going to go check the big 4 and count up how many different teams won titles since 2000. (Sorry if I make an error) MLB: 16 NFL: 13 NHL: 14 NBA: 11

It's not just about the TV money, it's about fans packing it in in droves when it's August first and their team is effectively out of the playoffs.

Him and Hobgood both. I loathed those picks.

I have but not this year.

The betting line doesn't reflect it but Austin Wells is coming up strong when it comes to Rookie campaigns. He's got more rWAR (.1 less fWAR) in far fewer at bats.

As of a few days ago he still wasn't healthy enough to swing a bat.

Sometimes you need to flex the vocabulary a bit when you are essentially saying the same things over and over.

For the thousandth time I wish we still had signatures. The Avatar looks amazing on that.

If I wasn't so aware of the ephemeral nature of the core I imagine I'd be more sanguine about the situation.

I'm pretty sure we had folks calling Stowers too old.

I imagine the math doesn't support it.

If you are going to throw a stinker do it against a team that can't field or pitch.

With the day off?