Sydnor

His FIP was a 5.24 and his xFIP was 5.91. I guess it wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good. To me the largest concern was 3.80 K/9. I just don’t know how a pitcher can succeed in today’s game missing that few bats. However, I’m not pouring dirt on him, and don’t think any definitive conclusions can be drawn at this point, particularly because it is spring training for him. That being said, I have not had a lot of confidence in his ability to help this season because his recovery from TJS has seemed challenging. I hope I’m wrong.

I know everyone thinks it’s routine, but some guys still never return to form after TJS. Even when he pitched in MLB at the end of last year, he looked like a guy that had some good luck given that he wasn’t missing bats.

She lived with him in Norfolk. My wife saw them at the Cavalier (a hotel at the end of the boardwalk in VA beach).

Extremely happy for Ortiz. He was my favorite prospect in Norfolk last year. I still think that he’ll have a better career than Westburg. Unfortunate that he had to do it to us.

The point is, that if we extend Gunnar for 12 years and $300 million (I just made up a contract with easy math), he isn’t going to make $25 million next season. He’s going to make something like $2 million because it’s a pre-arbitration year. Then he’ll makes something like $7 million in 2026 $12 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. A mid market deal for a player (like 3 years for $45 million or 4 years for $56 million) should not impact the team’s ability to pay those salaries in those years. Extensions are about security. Teams don’t just hand exponentially more to players than they would make in those years when they structure the extension. “The Arb game” has nothing to do with this. It is about how extensions are structured and how a shorter term mid-market deal shouldn’t prevent them from paying those types of salaries in the early years of an extension (i.e., the first 3-4 years of an extension). If you don’t believe me, use the Internet and look up what Fernando Tatis Jr. has been paid in the early years of his extension or what Witt Jr. will make. Burnes is a completely different discussion, but again I don’t believe the team has any interest in extending him. The Lunhow/Elias/Mejdal Astros provide a decent blueprint to what I think they’ll do with respect to pitching.

I am not making the case to keep Santander here, although I think there is merit to it if the FO believes that his production is likely to continue in combination with his clubhouse presence and leadership, but a Santander extension (or a similar signing) should have no impact on the ability to extend Henderson, Rutschman, or Holliday. If you assume a 3-4 year deal in the $15 million per year range, those years are cost controlled for Holliday and Henderson, so the salaries wouldn’t be astronomical in those years of the extension. Adley would be a bit higher, but he still has 3 years of arbitration, so his salaries would also be lower at the beginning of an extension. I don’t know if I’m being clear, but what I’m trying to say is the team should be able to accommodate a mid-level signing (Santander or otherwise if they think it makes sense) in addition to an extension or extensions of those players because those players will be paid lower salaries at the beginning of those deals, when the mid-level salary is on the book. With respect to Burnes, I believe that it would have an impact, but I don’t see a scenario where Burnes stays in Baltimore unless he signs an extremely under-market deal, which I do not believe he will. Based off what Houston did, I do not believe that the front office believes a 7-10 year investment in pitching is a wise choice. I could also be very wrong about that, but it is my opinion until proven otherwise.

They’re also not playing the worst team in the International League anymore.

I am certain that this will be met with a healthy dose of who cares, but Tony Kemp is a good dude.

Westburg also has an OPS below .650.

For what it’s worth Kiley McDaniel is very high on Etzel, higher than I ever saw any prospect evaluator on someone like Toby Welk. He ranked Etzel 11th in the system, graded him as a 45 FV, and predicted him as the above 40 FV breakout this year. I’m sure his thoughts were shared elsewhere on the board, but I’ll share them again here for simplicity: On the other hand, Etzel was completely unknown to most teams before he broke out in the MLB Draft League in 2022 after playing at a Texas junior college. He turned down the low-six-figure interest that clubs mustered because of his short track record and went to Southern Miss but had just an OK spring and eventually went in the 10th round of the 2023 draft (ranked 230thon my final rankings). Things clicked in pro ball, and in 30 games up to High-A, Etzel hit .323/.455/.510 with 12 extra-base hits, 21 stolen bases and a near-even strikeout-to-walk ratio with underling metrics to match. He'll be 22 years old as the minor league season begins and might go from 10th-rounder to a real prospect in Double-A in under a year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39444467/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-american-league-team-list I have only seen video, but Etzel is a very interesting guy. Hopefully, he will be an exciting follow this year. The first three games are definitely a good start.

Same.

Fastball sits around 96. Can get it up to around 100 when he needs to. 87-89 mph slider that is plus. Also throws a curve. He had a problem with walks when he was younger, but he has cleaned that up a bit, but it can still be a problem. He was a second round pick out of high school with a lot of arm strength, and the Pirates have done a pretty nice job developing him.

My counter argument here would be that the team is very different now. They were platooning Frazier at second. So Mateo would start at SS, Gunnar at 3rd, and Westburg at 2nd (Urias had a heel injury last August IIRC). When Mayo arrives, you don’t need to platoon him against left handed pitchers. They might initially platoon Holliday a bit, but if they do, I would imagine that it won’t happen for a long period provided that he hits as projected. Moreover, I would think that Urias would be the platoon partner. I could be wrong, but the idea of using Mateo in the outfield seems to be a way to justify keeping him to be the 26th man on the roster, and I would expect him to be used in that manner barring injury issues.

Mayo would be my starting third baseman on opening day, but I think they’re initially going to give Westburg some run.

I know what Baseball Savant is, but thanks for the screenshot. The way Holliday has been deployed so far, it appears he is starting at 2nd on opening day. He is not blocked by anyone. Mayo is not blocked by Mateo. How many plate appearances do you think Mateo will get this year? I would guess that unless he plays like he did last April, he will get between 125 and 200. Would you be comfortable with Mayo getting 125 to 200 plate appearances in the big leagues or would you want him playing everyday at Norfolk? You’ll find no bigger fan of Coby Mayo than me. I don’t want him in that role. If you tell me that Mayo is going to start at 3rd, Holliday at 2nd, and that Westburg moves to a utility role, with Urias inheriting the 26th man on the roster role, that is fine. I’m not sure Urias’ skill set makes sense in the 26th man on the roster role, but I’d be fine with it. The point is, he is not blocking anyone because he is playing a very small role on the team this year.

@forphase1 Given that my post appears to have confused you, please explain to me who Mateo is blocking as the 2nd utility infielder, fifth outfielder, and pinch runner?

Nobody, but you’re bringing facts to an argument based on emotion.

I know this question was not directed to me, but I saw Mayo play around 8-10 games in Norfolk last year when I was in VAB. I have been consistently impressed by his lateral movement. He obviously has a cannon, and his throws were accurate (I saw Diaz pick a couple of his throws, but he never airmailed him). I think the concerns over his defense are largely overblown. Coby is tremendously athletic. Will his height and getting down on the ball be an issue in the future? maybe, but I haven’t seen it. I truly believe he could start the year with the Orioles and play average to slightly above average defense based on what I saw in Norfolk. If Mayo has continued to improve with off-season work, I think above average defense is possible. I don’t think that it is a foregone conclusion that Westburg will be a better defensive third baseman than Mayo long term.

With respect to Hays, as @Frobby pointed out, Hays was a very highly rated prospect: Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP. With respect to Santander, it’s hard to even gauge whether he could’ve become a highly ranked prospect because his development was so disrupted by being a Rule 5 pick who had to accrue sufficient service time to remain in the organization. If he stays in the Cleveland organization and on a normal developmental track and puts up similar numbers to what he did in the Carolina league, who knows what happens. When Santander was 24 he had spent too much time in the majors to be ranked on a prospect list. I hope the upcoming outfielders are successful, but assuming they will better than the current group based on their pedigree is not an assumption I would make.

That would be a great outcome. I am not trying to be down on Bradfield. I just see a lot posters (not you) penciling Bradfield in to replace Mullins in 2026, and throwing around Lofton type comps, or saying he should be able to OPS in excess of .750 without any problem. I hope all of that is true, and I’m not trying to be a contrarian or down on him, but it’s more likely Bradfield turns into Myles Straw than Lofton or Butler. At age 22 (Bradfield’s age), Straw had a .295/.412./.373 (131 wRC+) slash line in A+. At age 23, Straw had a .327/.414/.390 (129 wRC+) slash line in AA (before being promoted to AAA and receiving a cup of coffee in the majors). I’ll be interested in seeing how Bradfield performs this year. He is an easy player to root for, and I hope he is great. I am just generally skeptical of players with his profile. It’s fun to dream, but when Lofton comps get thrown around and people start talking about 4 to 6 win seasons, I think that it is unrealistic to expect that sort of an outcome.

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

Honestly, I think Elias is pretty forthcoming. He has told people what he is planning on doing whether it was that he wanted to build up the Latin American program, that he wanted to rebuild the farm, that he didn’t think there was a probability of making the playoffs when he traded Mancini and Lopez, that he didn’t see the strategy to trading Santander last off-season, that he wanted to acquire pitching at the deadline, that he wanted a front of the rotation starter this off-season, etc. He mixes in some GM speak, but if they asked questions about roster makeup, etc. I’m certain he would’ve provided some insight aside from Corbin Burnes is good!

When I saw Mayo in Norfolk last summer, I thought he moved well laterally. I saw him make a few inconsistent throws, but nothing that concerned me. I think he could play third on spending day and be average or better. I am not going to speculate on what the best future infield alignment will be, but I strongly believe that Mayo can effectively play third base in the major leagues. I feel like people that think he needs to move off the position to RF or first have never seen him play (again he may move off first because there is a better future alignment, but IMO it will not be because Mayo is below average).

I suspect you know this, but for those that don’t, Bleier signed with the Nats.