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The illness and reported weight loss have increased the chance he gets sent down from my perspective. Let's review: 1. Hays is struggling like we haven't seen since Chris Davis 2. There is no easy way to get him playing time vs any RHP when Cowser, Mullins, Santander, O'Hearn, Mounty, and Rutschman are all hitting 3. The Orioles desperately need his bat to come to life vs LHP but he is a DP waiting to happen 4. That leaves playing time as a defensive replacement and even with the expanded LF at OPACY, that's a modest defensive context and a large offensive responsibility relative to other players in the league Norby may struggle when he is first called up, but he would give the club what it needs as a viable RHB with some positional versatility for 2 weeks or longer if required and service time can't be a consideration any more for Connor. That may be long enough to get Hays back on track. I still think the Orioles may show undue loyalty to Hays as a player-relations move, but that also sends a terrible message to the Norfolk 4 who have to be wondering what they need to do. I'd now handicap it as 15-25% that he gets sent down by 5/15.

How about a path to the majors for each of the 4 potential promotees: Norby: Priority for his call up because 1) service time is not an issue at his age, 2) He's RHB and the Orioles need more balance that way, 3) He's proven at AAA as a hitter, 4) he has flexibility to play multiple spots (probably all at a sub-par level), and 5) I think they'd do the least damage by sticking him in a platoon role where he plays twice a week and otherwise just PHs. I'd call up Norby if Hays is hurt or if the club decides Hays needs time at AAA to work out his problems when the parent club can't afford to bench a better hitter. Kjerstad: Recalled in case of an injury to Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, or Mullins in which case he'd move into a DH/RF role. He would be in the show for the majority of other MLB teams, but not here. Next year, he must start the season with the team and I expect no QO for Santander to make room. O'Hearn will probably still be in Baltimore with the club option unless he regresses as a hitter, but plate discipline had improved YoY, so I expect him to stay. Mullins will be 30 and in his final Arb year in 2025 which probably means he has little trade value, but if injuries around the league in CF generate value for him, the Orioles should probably be willing to sell at the deadline, even if he's still hitting like he is now. Stowers: Recalled in case of an injury to 2 of Cowser, Santander, O'Hearn, Mullins. It's a long shot, but I don't see another way. Making his situation more dire is the imbalance of LH bats producing in the lineup. I expect they'll trade him by the end of this season if a spot does not develop. Mayo: I think he waits until 2025, but the way he gets to the show this season is an injury to Mountcastle. I don't see another path and the Orioles would certainly need his bat if Mounty went down. Service time and development are both a concern for Mayo right now and he (like many others) needs to cut his K rat and play better defense.

You're probably right that he'd get more PAs and Hyde would eschew any strict platooning, even if splits are big and that would negatively impact my projection. Incredibly, .800 OPS for the rest of the season (at the same rate of play he's had to date) would bring him in very close to .862 for the season. One big thing that has changed since the days of Lowenstein/Roenicke is the number of roster spots for hitters and pitchers. In 1980, that was approximately 15 position players and 10 pitchers. Now it's 13 and 13. The change makes straight platooning far more difficult. As a point of reference, John Lowenstein in 1982 had only 382 PAs despite being the most productive hitter in baseball on a per AB or PA basis with a 1.071 OPS and 194 OPS+.

I'd be happy to reproject this every 2 weeks, but one assumption I'm making is that there is some regression to his platoon history. For that reason, I don't think it's nearly as simple as 500/402 times the numbers I posted because his marginal PAs would be disproportionately vs LHP which would be very likely to hurt his rate stats. Also need to project for some injury risk if we're talking O/U numbers. If you were projecting OBJ's receiving yards last year that was a central assumption, but even a young ballplayer needs that.

I'll put an estimate in on Cowser now for the full season: AB: 402 H: 110 Avg: .274 2B: 29 3B: 1 HR: 21 RBI: 82 BB + HBP: 51 OBP: .355 SLG: .507 OPS: .862 I don't think he will fully take an everyday role for the 2024 Orioles, which should help his rate stats and reduce his aggregate stats a little, but the HR on Sunday is going to go a long way to keeping him in the lineup full time. The projection I'm least certain taking the over is the BB+HBP total, which draws a lot on his 2023 and MilB patience. I'm not sure if this will be good enough to get him the ROY, but he should be in the discussion. These stats are very similar to what Casas posted last season in a much friendlier hitter's environment.

Maureen and I went to the game on Friday night and noticed what must be a programming error in the scoreboard statistics. Specifically, the lineup area and posted stats for each hitter were correctly adding ABs as they occurred but double counting hits. For example, Cowser started the game 11/24 (.458). After going 2 for 2, his batting average was posted at .577 in the lineup column (15/26) indicating he had gone 4 for 2 on the night. The same was happening for the Brewers. We didn't go to Saturday's game, so it may already have been fixed. If one wanted to point this error out to the Orioles, who might be the point of contact?

There is a line that was ascribed to Gollum, but I'm not sure if it was part of the Books, Movies, or a BBC radio reenactment I've heard which is one of my favorite of his: "Silly Hobbits don't know how long 'never' is." I think probabilistically, so please handicap it for me from your perspective. Does never in this case mean 0%? Or does it mean more like I think that it's between a 5% and 15% chance to occur that requires multiple overlapping circumstances but is still a meaningful possibility?

I think May 1 is a reasonable deadline for Hays to start hitting or be sent to AAA. If he turns in an OPS of .550 or less for the rest of the month, I think it will be entirely reasonable to pull the trigger. He hit a ball really well tonight, which is a good sign, but his relatively limited number of hard-hit balls also need to start turning into production. One other benefit of such a move is that it sends an encouraging message to the guys at AAA who are rotting on the vine with lots of AAA experience (Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, but not yet Mayo). Sending Hays down and bringing Norby up as the 4th outfielder/extra infielder for 2-4 weeks could give Hays time to get back in the groove and the Orioles a chance to see Norby in a shot vs ML pitching. It would also show the minor leaguers that they are not all in a dead-end situation and the Orioles will make timely changes in a potential championship season. If Norby does hit at the big league level and Hays finds his way at AAA, then you can recall Hays and DFA either Urias or Mateo.

The Cowser hit-and-run play with a 2-0 count had me screaming at the TV. If it WAS truly a H&R, it's a bad play because it creates a DP opportunity for a runner who was ready to eat Jansen alive with a huge lead.

Handicapping this right now (and assuming the information about the remaining option is correct), I'd say the odds of Hays being sent to the minors is between 5 and 15%, so far from impossible. To take a shot at what it might take, I'd say Cowser continuing to hit and another 2 or 3 for 20 from Hays ought to do it. Then Hays would not be able to displace Cowser and Elias could fairly say the only way to get him right is by playing every day at AAA. Remember, this is a team that sent the AL WHIP leader to the minors last year to get right. If Hays is sent down, I think Norby will be the callup to get another RH stick in a LH lineup. His service time is not a concern at this point (as it is with Mayo) and I don't see what more he has to prove at AAA.

Let's hope that Cowser's status as an established player gets him lots of rope if he has a brief, half-season slump. Seriously, I assume Hays will start tomorrow vs the lefty since it's the only 1 the Orioles will face for a while. If he simply enters for Cowser when a LHP is inserted and starts vs LHP, he'll get more ABs than Colton. However, we are at the point where Cowser deserves some test ABs and starts vs LHP and not just the RHP platoon role. Absolutely love Cowser's inside-out approach and I think we've seen that when Mountcastle is at his best he hits a mess of balls to RF.

I typically watch the game delayed so I can FF through commercials, but Austin Hays ABs have become fast forward TV. He is completely lost at the plate and he can't seem to find the ball vs LHP or RHP. The Orioles need him to hit LHP with so many weak bats vs Southpaws. Right now the Orioles are depending on just a handful of players vs LHP: Hit LHP well: Mountcastle, Rutschman, Santander, Mateo (Rutschman and Mateo are the only ones with an OBP over .621 coming into Sunday) The rest of the lineup: Hays can't hit anyone Hicks led the team in OPS vs LHP last season but he is gone. Gunnar has been terrible vs LHP for 2023-24 (did not look at '22) As a team, the Orioles are hitting .188/.279/.250/.529 vs LHP through 112 PAs which is NOT nothing As the season moves on, the Orioles will add more LHB to this lineup when some of Holliday, Kjerstad, and Stowers are promoted. This is a team that needs another bat that mashes LHP to protect all of the talented LHH. If this were Strat-O-Matic, those guys are literally a dime a dozen. Working with the constraints the Oriole have, Norby might be the best option since I think we're past the point of being concerned about service time.

Cowser is in the lineup vs a RHP the day after an off day. I think this is a good sign the Orioles may be moving to a platoon now. Of course the Pirates are scheduled to start LHP the next 2 days, so we probably won't know for a while and this may also have influenced the decision to start Cowser today.

How about Wandisson Charles?

This isn't way off, but I am seeing somewhat worse since last AS break. Per PFR: 2023 2nd half: .667 OPS 2024 so far: .349 OPS That covers 254 PAs. I think we're way past the "let's be patient" point, so I don't see why May 1st or the AS break or the trade deadline or the end of the season or "somewhere down the road" is appropriate. The intermediate solution is available right now (at no cost to service time considerations) in the form of a platoon. If the team goes to a platoon, Hays' defensive impact will still be maximized by innings as a def replacement and the fact he'll close out games for Cowser when he is pulled due to a LHP.

I look forward to see if the Orioles have information to publish on the longest rain delays in team history, particularly when the game was subsequently played in its entirety.

There is a confluence of circumstance right now that should make the Orioles close to a decision on Hays (as well as Mateo's future in the outfield) 1. The club has not been hitting the last 4 games and the overall lack of offense is frustrating despite 2 nice comebacks 2. Cowser is hitting well in very limited opportunities (despite the key whiff on Wed night) 3. The entire prospect-laden top 5 of the Norfolk lineup is plastering the ball in a collective middle finger to the demotions 4. Hays himself is not hitting and hasn't since the middle of last season Yes, the club has limited options and a big sunk cost in Hays but I think one choice is to start treating him like Roenicke relative to Lowenstein. When those 2 were the LF platoon for the 1979-83 Orioles, that meant Roenicke always started against a LHP and occasionally vs a RHP and Lowenstein (almost) never batted against a LHP. When Lowenstein started, that often meant Roenicke entered and finished games and had more ABs because Roenicke could continue vs a RHP. Over those 5 seasons: Roenicke: 1897 PA, .819 OPS (126 OPS+) Lowenstein: 1426 PA, .866 OPS (139 OPS+) If Hays and Cowser had the same relationship this season, I'd be cool with it, even though the less potent hitter was getting more ABs, because I think it would give Cowser the best chance for success vs ML pitching and Hays could hopefully add some defensive value to mitigate the value difference. One important addition. I don't really give a FF about Hays "reverse splits" over any recent period of time because 1) he's 107 OPS+ vs LHP career and 97 OPS+ vs RHP and 2) He's not a good enough hitter to give a damn about what his splits are with the other options the Orioles have. The tipping point for me is the fact that 3 additional prospects (Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers) are being held up by Hays and the current handling of that (non-) platoon. Yes, it's a great problem to have, but IMO the Orioles need to make a commitment to a different split of playing time within the next few weeks.

I look at the lineup and think how nice it would be to have Holliday for Urias, but Cowser for Hays would also be an upgrade. Colton needs to start getting playing time vs RHPs.

It may have been covered previously, but the Orioles seemed to be all in to win in 9 innings. They might have needed to bat Kjerstad for Mateo and I'm not sure who would have gone to 3B at that point. That's another reason not to be trigger happy on a very marginal Frazier for Westburg platoon benefit.

TB won't get any September Effect from Toronto like they are getting from the Angels. The Jays desperately need those wins as much (or more) as the Rays do. They probably need 6 more wins to feel comfortable making the tournament with the Rangers playing the Mariners 7 times yet.

The Orioles Magic Numbers vs each AL East team: TB: 10 Tor: 2 NYY: Eliminated Bos: Eliminated Opp Magic Numbers: TB: 15 Tor: 24 With the pool leagues big in Baltimore, this may make sense to folks: 1) There are 24 results remaining in total for both teams (13 O's games, 11 Rays games) 2) The Orioles need 10 of those games to go their way, while the Rays need 15 3) One can think of the Orioles and Rays as a best-of-24 competition where the O's need to finish no worse than 10-14 and the Rays need to have the results fall in their favor by at least 15-9.

All great ones until Sunday. My vote probably goes to Saturday, since it got the standings all tied up. For some reason, the Syracuse station decided to play a movie instead of the ballgame on Sunday. Incredibly frustrating, but so was the game.

We do not have the benefit of hindsight from the end of this season, but with the tiebreaker win and re-establishing the 1-game lead, this is the most important O's win in many years. Let's review: I do not believe there are any from 2017-2022 that are close. In 2016, they won a WC by 2.5 and lost the ability to play that game at home by losing the season series 10-9 to TOR. In 2014 they won the division by 12, so they didn't really have any critical games in hindsight during the regular season. In 2013 they finished 5th in the WC race (2 WC teams) by 6.5 games. In 2012 they won the 2nd WC and the 2 series which were huge were the 3-game sweep of the Rays at home 9/11-13 and the win Sat 9/29 at Bos which pulled them into a tie with the Yankees with 4 to play (the O's won 2 while the Yankees won all 4 remaining) 1998-2011 There were virtually no important wins 1997 They won the division wire-to-wire, but they also blew 7.5 games of a 9.5 game lead on 9/6. The sweep at the Braves in June (6/13-15) pushed their record to 45-19 and made us believe they could compete with anyone. In 1996 they clinched the AL's only WC on the last Saturday of the season at Toronto on Roberto Alomar's HR the night after the spitting incident. And yes, this might be the last regular season win as big as Saturday night. 1990-95 had big games and some big wins, but nothing of the magnitude of Saturday night. 1989 my choice for the biggest win of the year is probably the comeback from 6-0 down at Boston that kept them in 1st place a while longer. Similar situation with the win vs Toronto on 8/20 to increase their lead from 0.5 to 1.5. Let's hear some other nominations over this era or perhaps go back further.

I hope this is exactly what they try next. I'm not expecting much from Means, but he's worth a try at this time.

2 things about the list: 1. The Orioles have only won the league of division once with 95 or fewer wins (1974). They've also had 3 WCs in a total of 13 such seasons. With 96+ wins, they've missed the playoffs 3 times in 12 such seasons, including twice with divisional play (1977, 1980). 2. I don't think Fangraphs' projection systems are doing a good job accounting for either the September Effect (good teams/contenders tend to play much better in September) or using what I would call recent historical experience to project rest-of-season results. Their system projects the Orioles will play .484 ball the rest of the way, the lowest win pct in the AL East. That would bring the Orioles in at 99.1 wins. I'll take the over right now on 99.5 wins in part because I think the Rays are likely to be pushing the Orioles (no worse than 5-6 games out and O's have yet to clinch) for most of the rest of the month if not all of it. Under those conditions, I expect a good boost from the September Effect as the organization maximizes win decisions the rest of the way.