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btdart20

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Everything posted by btdart20

  1. Looks like they didn't update the projections after the Kemp signing.
  2. Not having Holliday on the OD was disappointing, but there's at least a deferred gratification carrot associate with it. That decision was made in isolation from this one. Having a Nevin, Kemp, or Wong as the last bat is near irrelevant. What does the $260k over league minimum really buy that Mateo/Urias (or even Wong) didn't? Meh... I don't think it's enough to be pot committed to playing Kemp.
  3. All of them were over-payments. Elias has shown a willingness to over pay for certain players (stats?). The big difference is track record. Montgomery has a higher probability of success over one year than Lyles or Gibson. Pitchers with a better track record tend to cost more, especially years. But the market hasn't rewarded Montgomery with multiple years so far. Seems like the market is shifting toward how Elias has already risk-adjusted SP value. If Montgomery is willing to sign for 1-2 years, that's got to be viewed favorably by the SigBot.
  4. Most people (here and pundits) said Elias overpaid for Lyles, Gibson, Frazier, and Givens. None were 'blockbuster' but all were questioned. None were signing elsewhere for anything close to what Elias signed them for.
  5. Depends on the length of the contract. Not with what Tony is suggesting. It's a short-term risk investment. It hedges bad/injured SP. It raises the ceiling for the short-term. The money (theoretically) is there. Montgomery can fit in the portfolio. I suspect Elias is willing to overpay for the right player on a short contract (See all sorts of overpriced signings that Elias did over the last few years). The only long term cost is a potential QO pick (no clue just saw chatter) and opportunity cost of how else the team/owner would use the money.
  6. How are they not getting paid? If it's not by the O's through an extension, it's by someone else through FA. If it's not through FA, then it's systemic and a macro issue (bigger than Elias and the O's and the OP). I don't think we'll be "extreme" frugal. Recent/current, low payroll (I believe/hope?) were functions of the scorched earth policy to rebuild (and margins for a sale (and JA's wife's "music career")). The rebuild is over. New ownership is on the brink. The goal now is smart investing through portfolio management. At least that's how I'm interpreting things...
  7. 1. Not disagreeing here. But Alpha's compete because it's part of their character. And there is a character component to player selection. 2. The hungry eat where there's an opportunity. If our development system proves it can get you an MLB job, then why would you avoid it? (Hernaiz is in the MLB. Hall is a #2.) They'll be FAs even if they don’t sign an extension. 3. This means 0 to Elias today. If the MLBPA don't like the rules, then figure out a way to change them. There's grumbling beyond what Elias is doing. As long as we play by the agreed upon rules. 4. Does winning matter more than a relationship with a player? Would we rather have a ring in 1997 or Cal as a legacy (or a great community guy like Davis)? Tampa and Oakland don't even have that. We/I am a bit ahead of myself here because let's get one first! 5. This is more complicated (and off topic a bit) because a sports team is a unique mix of civic pride and private ownership. But it's a whatever burger to me because it's systemic. I just want a competitive team with some rounds chambered for a legit playoff run (and that has required some degree of spending - then you have the recent SDP and NYM). MLBPA will have that discussion and put pressure on the Uncle Sam sanctioned monopoly. If the system changes...
  8. Elias and Sig habe to understand that the efficient frontier is still developing. Meaning, they know that so many of the variables are changing, interdependent, and even unknown. Plus, other teams will compete/have been competing in a similar way even when we strike upon a difference maker metric. Chasing body type, GB%, swing decisions, velo, spin, EV, smash factor, angle of entry... But differentiating and measuring key inputs is different than chasing outputs. (See NYY pipeline of stuff+ with subpar MLB results.) The best analysts both believe in their models (ego/thinking ability) because they are ok questioning their models (humble enough to recognize the dynamic variables of humanity, Game Theory, etc.). Ego is a perfectly fine word as used in the context you used it (i.e. classically defined). I think Elias will lean toward a draft/development model but payroll range will determine if we channel our inner LAD, HOU, or TBR. Player selection and development IS the org though. Do Elias/Sig believe in extentions? Not as a primary means of org building. Will they do it if it practically fits the org/budget occasionally? I think so, but it will be the exception not the rule (even for studs). TBD... Is Altuve the example from HOU? RZNJ makes a fair point too. GMs know that young proven studs give more team value than young/unproven or older/overpaid. Player selection within will grow in importance if we're going to arbitrage that market. JAGs are tough to trade though. Are young/controllable JAGs tough as well?
  9. International pipeline starting the hit State-side!
  10. The last couple of times he was on they went into depth on pitch shape and various FB topics. A recent show had Pitcherlist's Nick Pollack nerding out too.
  11. I should read the article and not just headlines... Quite the contract for an insurance policy.
  12. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/guardians-myles-straw-waivers.html#google_vignette I don't know what's happened with Straw the last couple of years in CLE. But he's had his worst seasons at normally peak ages. Org philosophy maybe? In HOU and his first half season with CLE, his OBP was around .360. His last two years, his OBP is a lackluster .300ish and splits are much better either. Plus speed, solid CF defense. I bet he gets an ML gig, but he'd be a solid AAA insurance policy.
  13. Lol! The struggle is real! I narrowed it to the 4 pitchers at the end.
  14. Bradfield, Tavera, Basallo... lions, and tigers, and bears... Fun times for sure! Follow the money theory puts Almeyda toward the top. Baltimore positional need is CF: Bradford. Tavera, Sosa. David/Goliath has Pham with a puncher's chance. Gotta see some pitching - DeLeon, Baumeister, Bright, Johnson... How awesome would it be to see one or two these guys push their ceilings up to 60-65+? These are who I'm most interested in.
  15. It buys time to read the ROY candidates? If a few get off to a solid start, then does that speed up the promotion date? If they are off to a slow start, does it stall Holliday's debut?
  16. I know Charlie Hustle will be following this story!
  17. Boo... SigBot agrees with the old adage that the extra year bird in the hand > extra pick 2 in the bush.
  18. Sorry, thought it was implied. No disagreement on the lackluster OPS vs. LHP. And they're clearly outmatched vs. RHP compared to our starters. Add in pinch runner value and some defensive metrics (compared to say Urias in CF or SS and McKenna at 2B) and that extra roster spot can maybe give Mayo a shot in the landmark case of Sooner v Later.
  19. Mateo maximizes roster spots by filling whatever role Urias and McKenna can do vs. LHP. Maybe not a 100% replacement of starters, but we know Cedric will need rest/maintenance days. Similar direction (not degree) for 2B and SS when they want to sit a starter. Mateo = .667 OPS Urias = .686 McKenna = .621
  20. Great confirmation! Mateo has better splits vs. LHP than Urias. Better defensive flexibility/match for rising stars too. Urias is the odd man out eventually. Hopefully we see a trade within the next week-month because Urias is MLB caliber and Mayo is MLB ready.
  21. I agree with this. Gunnar has earned 95% PAs (with some at DH). Any PAs for anyone else shouldn't come at Gunnar's expense. He seems locked in at SS. Holliday is on the path but needs to prove it. The same can be said for Mayo with a lesser degree of certainty. (I'm fully on board with both as future studs.) Both of them should get 75+% of PAs once they are on the roster. So I think Urias, Mateo, Westburg, Mountcastle, O'Hearn, and anyone else who DH's will feel a squeeze. Will Urias and Mateo combine for more than 300 PAs? That's directly correlated to Mayo, Westburg, and Holliday.'s PAs.
  22. Agreed. Me if the IF is Holliday, Gunnar, Mayo, and Westburg as the Zobrilla super-sub!
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